December 2008

Alright, it’s a county-wide election. You’re just coming off of a statewide Presidential and Senate race, as well as three active local House races. Each of those five campaigns had to have had numerous staffers. And there’s no other elections going on in the area. Paid campaign staff for Sharon Bulova should be easy to find, right?

I guess not:

http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/npo/973258303.html
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/npo/974254867.html

Maybe all the local Democrats committed to celebrate Obama’s victory between now and Inauguration Day. Maybe Connolly’s staffers got jobs in his office and all of Byrne’s workers are still holding a grudge (right, Ben?). And maybe the DPV is sending everyone down to Hampton Roads for the special election in the 81st House District.

Or maybe—just maybe—when people stop and think about it, nobody actually wants to see Sharon Bulova as Chairman of the Board of Supervisors. It makes you wonder, doesn’t it?

Oops, too late. They already gave themselves one.

Politico’s Ben Smith is reporting Jindal’s answer at a campaign stop with Bob McDonnell.

Now, it’s always possible Jindal is being coy, and running for re-election in 2011 wouldn’t preclude him from setting up an organization quickly to compete nationally. However, it would be tough.

Frankly, I’m happy Jindal is taking a pass. In my opinion, he’d be much better off waiting until 2016, right after he completes his second term as Governor, when he’d still only be 45 years old. Even if a Republican defeats Obama in four years and Jindal has to wait until 2020, he’d still be under 50. There’s plenty of time, and no need to rush him into a national race.

It’s also good news for Huckabee fans.

From Rasmussen, McDonnell ties Deeds, leads McAuliffe by five points, and is losing to Moran by four points. However, as the campaigns haven’t even begun yet, these numbers are far from static. Instead, let’s look at each candidate’s image to see how they enter the field:

McDonnell: 49%/19% Fav/Unfav, 32% unsure

Deeds: 37%/24% Fav/Unfav, 38% unsure

Moran: 33%/31% Fav/Unfav, 36% unsure

McAuliffe: 36%/34% Fav/Unfav, 30% unsure

First, McDonnell’s image is clearly the best, at a net positive of 30 points and almost half of the population having a favorable opinion of him. As the three Democrats battle it out amongst themselves, McDonnell has six months to raise his name ID and increase his favorabality even higher.

Looking at the Democrats, despite Moran performing the best in the general election match-ups, he has the worst image, as he is equally viewed favorably and unfavorably, as does Terry McAuliffe. However, McAuliffe has better name recognition (70%-64%). Deeds has the best image (net positive of 13 points), but is the least known.

As things stand now, regardless of the general election numbers, things can only get better for McDonnell. He already has the best image of the four, and the three Democrats are about to engage in an expensive and contentious primary fight for six months, which is sure to raise their negative ratings. I’d like to see some non-IVR polling, but as we start on a new election cycle, Republicans have reason to be optimistic.

I’ve been waiting for a while now for an excuse to publish a story about my good friend Brett Coffee, who is running against Dave Marsden in the 41st District next year. Fortunately, the good people at Blue Commonwealth and its predecessor, Raising Kaine, gave me a reason when I saw his smiling mug on their front page:

Brett recently graduated from the Sorensen Institute, so he deserves all the accolades he implicitly receives from the liberals. I’ll have a lot more on Brett as the election cycle progresses, including details about his January kick-off. In the meantime, you can check out his website here. And congrats to Brett.

In case you haven’t seen them yet, here are four great live-blog recaps of Saturday’s AG debate at the Advance:

Shaun Kenney | SWAC Girl | Jason Kenney | Crystal Clear Conservative

Maybe it’s the economy, but $90K in cash wrapped up in tin foil in your freezer just doesn’t buy what it used to. Just ask Bill Jefferson, who will finally be sent home a full two years after being indicted on 16 charges of corruption.

Republican Anh Cao completed a major upset, defeating Jefferson in this New Orleans-based seat. The district is 61% African-American (as is Jefferson), and has a Partisan Index rating of D +28; that means the district votes 28 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. As the Daily Kos points out, this is more Democratic than the most Republican district is Republican (UT-3, R +26).

From another perspective, Bobby Scott’s minority-majority district, hand-drawn for a Democrat and typically uncontested, is a D+18 district, or a full 10 percentage points less Democratic than LA-2. That means this election is akin to a Republican challenger beating Bobby Scott with 60% of the vote. Unreal.

With John Fleming’s narrow victory in the open LA-4 seat (assuming it holds up), tonight’s results are a great morale booster for Republicans, and with an actual pick-up, it’s more than just a “moral” victory. Hopefully this is a harbinger of great things to come.

Ken Cuccinelli — 47.8%
John Brownlee — 38.4%
Dave Foster — 13.8%

(Hot Springs, VA) – Ken Cuccinelli won today’s Straw Poll for Attorney General at the Republican Party of Virginia’s annual Advance with 47.8% of the vote in a three candidate field.

The Straw Poll took place in conjunction with a candidate debate featuring Cuccinelli, Dave Foster and John Brownlee, and was moderated by former Attorney General Jerry Kilgore.  Both the debate and the Straw Poll were organized by the Republican Party of Virginia.  Foster and Brownlee received 13.8% and 38.4% of the vote, respectively.

Results were scheduled to be announced at tonight’s 7:30 dinner.

Jeff Federick can’t be happy about these types of stories appearing in the Washington Post.

Let’s say you were a voting member. What would you vote tonight? Should he stay or should he go?

LI UPDATE:  He’s staying – story here.

Many people have made up their mind in the Attorney General’s race. Personally, I like Cuccinelli, but think Brownlee has a great resume, and I came away from the FCRC meeting last Tuesday impressed with Dave Foster as well. I’d enthusiastically support any of the three in the general election.

But when it comes to who gets support before the convention, I have a great way to make a determination: Whichever candidate does the most to elect Pat Herrity as Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.

All three candidates (and Bob McDonnell) on Tuesday said that electing Herrity is their first priority, and I’d like to see them live up to their word. Besides which, having Herrity as Chairman will help immensely in the general election, especially with Fairfax’s own Steve Shannon as the competition.

So Ken, you’ve made a name for yourself with your phenominal Fairfax-based grassroots team. Let’s put them to work for Pat.

Dave, you got elected twice in Arlington County and are campaigning on your ability to win in Democratic areas. Let’s turn some of the non-traditionally Republican areas of Fairfax out for Pat.

John, you’re a novice at elections but have an energetic personality and great communication skills. We’ve got a message for you to deliver to the voters of Fairfax.

There’s been a lot of talk in the AG race so far, and there’s sure to be a lot more to come. I think some on-the-ground action would be a positive change of pace.