By VA Blogger
SurveyUSA released their first post-primary poll, showing the entire GOP ticket walloping the Dems:
(6/5-7 results in parenthesis)
Bob McDonnell: 55% (47%)
Creigh Deeds: 40% (43%)
Bill Bolling: 54%
Jody Wagner: 42%
Ken Cuccinelli: 53%
Steve Shannon: 42%
In a word: wow. This is the first poll that shows McDonnell not only at 50%, but well over it. Deeds’ numbers show no indication of a primary bounce, as he’s now where he was before he won in early June. In fact, Deeds underperforms the rest of his ticket. Looking at the crosstabs, McDonnell is leading among women, is above 50% in all regions, and is carrying Independents by a crushing 60%-35% margin.
Now, most Democrats are going to try to dismiss the poll out of hand, so I took it a step further. The party affiliation breaks in this latest SurveyUSA poll are 38% R, 32% D. That is admittedly out of sync with other polls. The latest PPP release (showing McDonnell +6) was 33% R, 34% D. The latest Research 2000 (showing McDonnell +1) was 32% R, 39% D. And even the previous SurveyUSA poll was 34% R, 36% D. So what does that mean for McDonnell?
It turns out, not much. I recalculated the numbers using each of those previous party breaks (and then the average of all four, including this latest poll) and here’s what I found:
June SurveyUSA (34R/36D): McDonnell leads 53%/42%
PPP (33R/34D): McDonnell leads 53%/43%
Research 2000 (32R/39D): McDonnell leads 50%/46%
Average (34R/35D): McDonnell leads 52%/43%
Even in the most generous sample to Democrats, a seven-point party advantage, McDonnell not only leads, he breaks 50%. If the turnout is just about even between both parties, like the most recent PPP poll showed, McDonnell leads by double-digits. And given the 2009 elections in Virginia thus far and the lack of energy on the Democratic side, I would bet on that being more accurate than Obama-esque numbers from last November.
All in all, this poll is as good for Bob McDonnell as it is bad for Creigh Deeds. He was believed to be the strongest candidate during the primary because of his broad appeal and his lack of baggage, but with his lack of baggage comes lack of excitement and ideas. He refuses to put forward a transportation plan while trying to be cute by dodging any question about taxes, and many blogs are picking up on his “me too!” approach, following McDonnell at every turn. It’s developing into a pattern, one that the blogs, the media, and even former Governor Doug Wilder is picking up on. Said Wilder, when asked about Deeds:
“Tell me what the man has done? I haven’t heard it.”