September 2009

At the end of his coverage of the latest Rasmussen, Waynesboro County Committee Chairman Chris Graham posts what he’s hearing as a Democratic unit chairman:

“The bad poll news comes on the heels of a story circulating in Democratic circles today that the Democratic National Committee is reportedly holding on to its $5 million financial commitment to the Deeds campaign out of concern that the Deeds campaign has focused too much of its attention on the controversial Bob McDonnell 1989 grad-school thesis setting out a hardline social-conservative political agenda for his budding political career and not enough on putting down a framework for what a Deeds administration would do for Virginia.”

The obvious implications are huge: If the RNC keeps its $7 million commitment, McDonnell’s cash advantage could grow from $2 million-and-change to more than three times that, which will help not only on television but investment in the ground game both sides agree will be key to winning or losing. Furthermore, it represents a two-fold vote of “no confidence” in Creigh Deeds’ campaign, and indeed in Deeds’ own ability to communicate a message or even to govern.

The more interesting implications of this move are Chairman Kaine’s role in all of this. Obviously, he takes his DNC marching orders from the White House, so the question is: Did Tim Kaine fight for a continued investment in Creigh Deeds, or was Kaine the voice-in-the-ear that prompted this decision?

It also raises an interesting question about Barack Obama’s potential involvement in the campaign. Thus far, Obama has taken a cautious approach to using his political capital in races like NY-20 and the New Jersey Governor’s race. Obviously he has participated somewhat on behalf of Deeds, but if the Obama-controlled DNC bails on the race, what are the chances of Obama committing any more effort?

Bob Holsworth wrote a few days ago in his list of ten reasons why both sides think they’ll win: “4. Obama will make voters forget the Wilder betrayal”. Can the Creigh Deeds campaign generate the kind of African-American turnout necessary to win without Doug Wilder and without Barack Obama? I have my doubts.

This is just a rumor, from one unit chairman in one part of the commonwealth, and decisions like these are never set in stone. But if the rumor holds up, in part or in whole, $5 million represents a lot of missing voter contacts, which could have significant ramifications from the top of the ticket all the way down. Keep your eye on this story.

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Rasmussen Reports, conducted September 29th (9/16 results in parenthesis):

Bob McDonnell: 49% (47%)
Creigh Deeds: 39% (42%)

When pushing undecideds into leaners, we get:

Bob McDonnell: 51% (48%)
Creigh Deeds: 42% (46%)

In two weeks, McDonnell has turned a +2 toss-up into a +9 lead (+5 into +10 with leaners). This is the third IVR poll conducted this week, following SurveyUSA (+14) and PPP (+5); I’ll have my thoughts on those polls and others later today.

According to Rasmussen, Deeds leads among women (+5), but McDonnell is up big among men (+26) and even bigger among Independents (a ridiculous 62-22 spread, or +40). Deeds may be shoring up his base with his continued cultural attacks on McDonnell and support for a tax increase, but its clearly coming at the expense of Independents.

Though there is a mistake on their topline report, the image scores remain favorable for McDonnell, who is viewed favorable by 53% and unfavorably by 37%, compared to 46%/45% for Deeds..

Just over half (51%) say McDonnell’s thesis is important. Regarding actual issues pertaining to governing, McDonnell continues his vast lead over Deeds on taxes (51%-36%) and spending (46%-30%), and now has a double-digit lead on transportation as well (45%-32%).

Interestingly, nearly as many say Mark Warner’s endorsement would make them more likely (33%) to vote for Deeds as less likely (30%), while a plurality (34%) say it would have no impact. Speaking of “no impact”, Doug Wilder’s non-endorsement, while a slap in the face to the Deeds campaign, is recorded as “no impact” by 80% of respondents. In the crosstabs, that number drops to 73% among African-Americans, but 17% say Wilder’s non-endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Deeds. Intriguing.

President Obama’s approval stands at 52%/48%, while Chairman Kaine clocks in at 59%/40%. More to come on all the polls later on, so stay tuned.

More here.

I clicked off a link from S.E.Cupp’s Twitter account which took me to a HuffPost story about a new calendar from the Clare Booth Luce Institute. The calendar is of “notable Republican women” ..and guess who showed up on the calendar!?

Click here to see.

… to call for Zorn to be replaced?

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… goes to Lowell Feld and Gerry Connolly, with public speculation that Boss Connolly may be interested in running for Governor in 2013.

The idea is so far-fetched as to not even warrant active discussion, except to ponder the hysteria that might result on Not Larry Sabato if the 2013 race ends up being between Gerry Connolly and Ken Cuccinelli.

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Around the Commonwealth, incumbent Democrats in the House of Delegates are spending all their energy avoiding debates (even Steve Shannon who hopes to leave the House won’t debate his opponent in the Attorney General race, Ken Cuccinelli).

District 67–Del. Chuck Caputo, famous for skipping the 2008 Special Session on transportation, won’t debate Republican challenger Jim LeMunyon. LeMunyon has written Caputo in June, July, and August proposing debates. No response from Caputo. Must be off on another cruise (that’s why he missed the Special Session).

District 43–Del. Mark Sickles has “out of town plans” every time a community organization invites him and Republican challenger Tim Nank to a debate.

District 10–For five months, a Roanoke-area community college group has been trying to schedule a debate between Del. Onzlee Ware and Republican challenger Troy Bird. After evading the group’s calls with non-answers, Ware finally said no, hung up and won’t return calls.

District 90–Del. Algie Howell, who escaped defeat in a Democratic Party Primary in June, is so afraid of debating Republican challenger Jason Call, who has been endorsed by the Virginia Education Association, that he ignored Call’s letter proposing a debate, and now Howell leaves events early or comes late to avoid appearing with Call.

District 100–Del. Lynwood Lewis won’t respond to calls for debates either. Republican Melody Scalley challenged Lewis to weekly debates in the Eastern Shore-based district. Her calls have gone unanswered. Scalley would settle for one debate, but she can’t get Lewis to even agree to that.

District 38–Perhaps worst of all, Kaye Kory, who unseated Del. Hull, in a primary, used her primary race as an excuse to avoid debating Republican Danny Smith. When Smith wrote to Kory in June, Kory responded by saying that was too busy celebrating her primary win and wouldn’t be able to debate until after Labor Day. It’s after Labor Day and there’s only one debate on the books. Local party activists are placing bets on whether Kory will cancel.