Simpson Needs Speakman, But It Won’t Help

By Loudoun Insider

I said from early on that Ron Speakman, a former mortgage broker in a county with big real estate deal shenanigans going on, would lose the Republican Sheriff nomination and run as an Independent.  The writing was on the wall from an early stage that this was part of the grand GOBGN plan.  I am still not convinced that Speakman is aware of this role in this – I really do think he’s crazy enough to think that he deserves to be Sheriff.  But the Simpson folks know that and Speakman continues to play the patsy role very well.

Simpson needs Speakman in this race for several reasons.  The main one is that he has won his last two elections by decreasing pluralities.  Simpson won with 43.7% of the vote in 2003 against four challengers, getting 17,258 votes out of a total 39,494 cast.  In 2007 he won with only 37.3% of the vote against two challengers, getting 20,117 votes out of the total 53,882 cast.  There were 14,388 additional votes cast, but Simpson only increased his vote total by 2,859 and lost 5.4% of the proportional vote total.  Simpson only got 19.9% of the additional vote increase from 2003 to 2007.  Not exactly a convincing statement that he deserves to be re-elected or will do any better this time around.

In a two way race with Chapman, Simpson goes down hard, especially since Chapman has drawn strong support from both parties, including the endorsements of Simpson’s two 2007 challengers, Republican Greg Ahlemann and Democrat Mike George.  Throw money bags Speakman into the race and it complicates things a bit.  Please notice this past week’s full page ad from Speakman had no criticism of Simpson whatsoever – it’s all anti-Chapman all the time from the bitter loser.  Simpson wants to sit back and play Mr. Nice Guy while Speakman trashes his only real opponent for him, but their patsy destroyed himself with his texting of penis photos to a female campaign volunteer.  Their wild card turned out to be pretty darn wild after all.

As much as the Simpson lackeys and the real estate cabal that thinks they run this county want it to be different, the unfortunate fact of the matter for them is that there is going to be a new Sheriff in town.   One who will bring LCSO into the 21st century and not show them any favoritism.  No wonder they’re scared.

 

 


Comments

  • BlackOut says:

    Excellent post LI. Chapman has good momentum and is much stronger than Mike George was. George had a lot of support but I think with the R Chapman is in better shape. Additionally I think Speakman is tanking and will not garner as much support as Ahlemann did.

    The factor not mentioned is the backbiting occurring within the LCRC that is hurting Chapman. Chapman would be in much stronger shape without that ridiculous distraction. Hopefully that group has gotten the “talkin too” and are heeding the advice. It’s obvious they are for Simpson but they should keep their mouths shut and vote quietly. They need to stick to their pledge.

    Oh it’s so much simpler to be an Independent.

  • DC Beltway Bandit says:

    Just in from the Loudoun Times Mirror:

    “However, Republican candidate Mike Chapman remains a strong alternative. With an impressive resume and a bevy of new ideas, Chapman would also serve well in the position. Our only concern is that as a relative newcomer, his familiarity to the community is less than a long-time veteran. Incidents of questionable judgment by independent candidate Ron Speakman preclude serious consideration.”

    I believe the last sentence sums it up for Speakman – it’s over.

  • broadlands boy says:

    Ya’ll must be smokin something. Simpson will win by a larger margin this time than he did last time. Indies, Dems, and Republican Chapman haters all will vote for Simpson. I detect some intelligent people on this blog, surely with your knowledge of local politics you must realize that. Why not just project reality instead of continuing to believe in the Chapman fantasy? I won’t be surprised if Chapman gets less than 30% of the vote.

  • Dan says:

    “I won’t be surprised if Chapman gets less than 30% of the vote.”

    broadlands boy, with a prediction like that you may want to be cautious about disparaging the knowledge others possess about local politics. Your prediction above will very likely look pretty damned silly after the votes have been counted.

    You have a three way race in which one of the candidates (Speakman) is a total joke who is best known to most voters for texting penis pictures to women he has recently met in bars. Regardless of how much money he chooses to burn in this election it is highly unlikely Speakman will poll above the single digits. So, for your prediction of less than 30% for Chapman to become a reality then the current corrupt occupant of the office would have to top 60% of the vote.

    Since, as LI posted above, Simpson polled 43.7% in 2003 and 37.7% in 2007 I’d guess there is very little likelihood of him magically garnering over 60% this time around. Particularly with his well publicized liabilities. Your conjecture about the race seems to be little more than baseless bluster.

    Simpson could win. He has a core of support that is going to vote for him. But his Ace in the hole (a third candidate to split the vote) turned out to be a complete joker. He isn’t going to get the split he hoped to get. So he could just as easily lose.

    It’s better than an even money bet that Simpson will lose. Even with disloyal members of the Republican committee doing all they can to undermine the nominee of the party.

  • Fred says:

    Simpson is pulling out all the stops; from showing up at campaign events in uniform to making it appear he’s on the job with his recent online crime fighting tool. Simpson must go. Mike Chapman will restore honor and integrity to the office. Morale of deputies will skyrocket with a dedicated leader at the helm.

    The only role Speakman plays is that of a spoiler. If he had any desire to be Sheriff he’s be running against the incumbent.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Anyone noticed the increase in emails from the sheriff’s office on Loudoun Alert? A little shady…

  • edmundburkenator says:

    My parents received a polling call bought be Speakman the other night asking about the favorability of all three candidates.

    Is there any old Simpson money going to Speakman?

  • broadlands boy says:

    Not saying the Simpson will get 60%, probably won’t get close to that. Speakman will get more votes than people think, this pulling Chapman down to around the 30% mark. I will concede that Chapman may end up with up to 35% but I don’t think so. Too many Dems voting for Simpson. I will be very surprised if anyone other than Simpson wins. I think the Chapman camp realizes it’s over, I know many of the Republicans do.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    Give me a break, Simpson troll. At least you went back to your usual name. Chapman wins easy. Speakman is wasting his money and Simpson’s baggage is finally catching up to him. Most Dems are totally behind Chapman contrary to your constant protestations otherwise. They all know Simpson is Republican as well, but a crooked one.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    Speakman has all the money he wants to blow on this race, eb. It really should be looked at the other way around – Speakman’s money is helping make up for what Simpson lost when his shady donors dried up – Osama el-Atari went to federal prison for fraud, and VRT finally got caught sending our gas tax dollars to Simpson.

  • Linda B says:

    DCBB, link please. I can’t find that quote.

  • DC Beltway Bandit says:

    Hi Linda,

    Here is a complete list of the LTM’s endorsements (FWIW I had a hard time finding the article too, until I did a universal search).

    http://www.loudountimes.com/index.php/search/results/a52419e5cb5f316bf306e67495b4c842/

    This is the link to the Constitutional positions:
    http://www.loudountimes.com/index.php/news/article/election_2011_endorsements_part_iii_constitutional_officers12/
    I hope the links help you and others. It is odd the the LTM seems to have buried their own endorsement links on their website.

  • Leesburg Dad says:

    Link to the LTM endorsements for Constitutional Officers, which includes the quote from above about Chapman and Speakman:

    http://www.loudountimes.com/index.php/news/editorial/election_2011_endorsements_part_iii_constitutional_officers12/

  • Oracle says:

    Speakman is the self proclaimed street cop in this race, but he has been rejected by the real street cops (PBA) who endorsed Chapman. If the already embattled Speakman has any respect for himself, his family, and his fellow law enforcement officers, he will do the honorable thing by pulling out of this race that he simply can no longer win. Many officers thirsty for a positive change would thank him for it.

  • Tom Parker says:

    Received a robocall last night for Speakman. They called Simpson an absentee Sheriff who wants us to think everything is okay and accused Chapman of falsifying his resume. All they mentioned on Speakman was his 7 years as a Leesburg cop. He just continues dumping money into this thing!

  • Lloyd says:

    Same goes with his ads running on WINC every morning

  • Speakman is down, but he ain’t out. Even with his disgraceful antics and his less than desirable persona, he will recieve 20% or so of the votes. His ads in the papers have produced what is called “name recognition”, and that works for the unconnected in the county.
    Coupled with a strong finish by Simpson’s machine, Chapman is indeed in trouble. He can still pull this out, but it’s going to be tighter than many think it is.
    I must, in light of the troubled reading comprehension of some of the less intelligent among us, reiterate that I support Chapman….as much as I supported Delgaudio’s competition back in 2007. BTW, I called that race FOR Delguadio …by 120 votes. He won by 220. My record remained in tact.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    What a disingenuous asshole BPM is. Notice how he has to reiterate his supposed support for Chapman because you would never be able to tell from his constant sniping at Chapman and his campaign. And his consistent refusal to say anything negative whatsoever about Steve Simpson.

    Now the same crew who criticized Chapman up and down for taking on Speakman’s lunacy and deep pockets states the obvious – that his money is buying name recognition. That is exactly why Chapman couldn’t ignore Speakman,. But that’s exactly what the Chapman Haters expected Chapman to do. I guess that;s why Candace Strother was calling LCRC candidates to try to convince them to not attend the press conference attacking Speakman that helped lead to the emergence of Jane Doe and her tale of Speakman and the penis photo.

    Of course this race will be tight – half the LCRC and the entire GOBGN is working hard to make sure the current skanky Sheriff stays in power to help protect them.

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