Is Loudoun County Really the Best Indicator?
I’ve seen numerous press reports, local and national, saying, in effect, “As Loudoun goes, so goes the nation.” Frankly, I don’t believe it.
Yes, Loudoun could be perceived as a swing county in a swing state, and, as I’ve said before, I even live in a swing precinct by that same logic. While I see Loudoun going clearly for Romney this election (by that, I mean 55-45 or better), I just don’t see the rest of this state, the swing states, the swing counties or the swing precincts going Romney by that margin.
There’s been a great deal of prognosticating in the comments here recently, so I’ll offer my two cents. In addition to the above, I’ll predict this: any state where Obama has a less than 3 point lead in the last poll will go Romney. Obama just will not be able to get out the vote this time ’round. There’s no passion and no hope because there’s been no change.