Is Loudoun County Really the Best Indicator?

By Lloyd the Idiot

I’ve seen numerous press reports, local and national, saying, in effect, “As Loudoun goes, so goes the nation.”  Frankly, I don’t believe it.

Yes, Loudoun could be perceived as a swing county in a swing state, and, as I’ve said before, I even live in a swing precinct by that same logic.  While I see Loudoun going clearly for Romney this election (by that, I mean 55-45 or better), I just don’t see the rest of this state, the swing states, the swing counties or the swing precincts going Romney by that margin.

There’s been a great deal of prognosticating in the comments here recently, so I’ll offer my two cents.  In addition to the above, I’ll predict this:  any state where Obama has a less than 3 point lead in the last poll will go Romney.  Obama just will not be able to get out the vote this time ’round.  There’s no passion and no hope because there’s been no change.

 


Comments

  • Define Loudoun?

    For me, it’s just Loudoun (per official SBE final tally – which probably won’t be conclusive on election night since there are other votes to count, I think) and just the presidential race.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    God dammnit, Angry Pancake Man is the funniest thing I’ve read in months.

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    Kaine will beat Allen by at least five points, maybe more. Kaine will definitely outperform Obama.

    As far as Megyn Kelly, the tagline could be this: Fox: Faux News, Faux Tits.

  • BlackOut says:

    OK, I am good with that one Lloyd.

    If only Ben Dover was still around. I heard he’s moved on after his still was busted by the revenuers. Just an inconvenience at best but still a distraction for the old guy.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    National polls are now starting to synch up with state polls.

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/

    Not good news for the Romney betters here.

    I personally love me some Ravi Oli. I have missed his Old World common sense and simple brilliance. I would like to take Ravi out for a delicious beverage after the election, but I don’t know a place that has goat milk on tap.

  • HOAhell says:

    I wish this blog had a Like button to hit Angry Pancake Man and everyone who likes that post. But it doesn’t, so instead I will just ditto Mr. Burkenator if dittos are allowed.

  • ACTivist says:

    Seems BE’s arrogance and stupidity got confronted at the breakfast table. Not surprised. The “angry pancake man” was just utilizing a tactic from the left. Wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t start happening more often, especially when people’s lives are put at risk because of lies, deceit and corruption. You’ll get no sympathy from me.

    Lloyd, N. Va, Richmond and SE Va are liberal bastions and of high population. It just depends how hard people have been devastated by this administration will the tale of Va be told. I think the state may have already turned blue again with the influx of the “freebie”.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    “Wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t start happening more often, especially when people’s lives are put at risk because of lies, deceit and corruption…”

    This is what the nutty right sounds like folks.

    Take it in.

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    Sounds like the invasion of Iraq to me, if that’s what ACTivist is referring to. If not, I’m not sure what he is.

  • Eric the half a troll says:

    eb, you can bet if the right had these poll numbers they would be howling (excuse the pun) about them and screaming about the momentum and the election being a done deal. In their eye’s the polls would be infallible.

    I am not suggesting this but I certainly prefer these numbers today versus the alternative.

  • Eric the half a troll says:

    ACT, might want to keep the lala-land posts at novatownhall.

  • ACTivist says:

    Troll, what you and others fail to understand is how polls work. Most people don’t want to give their opinion on surveys, some tell the opposite. I have been surveyed no less than 40 times in 6 months and each time the receiver hits the cradle. I don’t do polls. I guess I get registered as the percentage you need to get 100. 45% to 43% means 88% of those questioned gave a choice. What about the other 12%? After the election some poll will say “we were most accurate, +/- 5%.”. Please. Polls are polls and votes are votes. Votes tell the election.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    “The first thing happens is, don’t believe — the public polls are wrong. That’s the first sign of a campaign that’s about to lose. The second thing, we’re going to change the nature of the electorate, and you’re not seeing it reflected in the polls. And the third thing is, the only poll that counts is Election Day. When you hear those things, you know you’re about to lose,” – Matthew Dowd, Republican political strategist.

    ACT hit two of the three.

  • Eric the 1/2 Troll says:

    “Troll, what you and others fail to understand is how polls work. Most people don’t want to give their opinion on surveys, some tell the opposite.”

    Act, I doubt very seriously that this would be your position if the polls were going the other way. But you are right about one thing, voting is what counts.

  • TCJohnson says:

    “Troll, what you and others fail to understand is how polls work. Most people don’t want to give their opinion on surveys, some tell the opposite. ”

    Then how come Nate Silver was able to predict the last two election cycles using just poll data?

  • BlackOut says:

    I find it interesting that the Romney camp is now throwing doubts on polls. Heck the Drudge siren has been going off several times a day with a new Romney favoring poll. In fact, I just got one about an hour ago.

    Also, not a good sign for the challengers when they start setting up the excuse trains on why the election was lost. Anyone else been hearing the “Sandy caused the lose for Romney” chants. Not a good thing to start tossing the blame game even before the vote is taken.

  • Barbara Munsey says:

    MSNBC has been nurturing the “filthy corrupt lying Republicans will steal the election” scenario–what does that mean? :D

    I mean, there already IS a ManBearPig, and last I looked, his TV station was up for sale.

    I’ve no clue how it will go–the last four years has really deadened my shock factor–I’m going to go vote, help work the polls tomorrow, watch MSNBC to see the mania, and make sure there’s plenty of AoSHQ pudding in the fridge.

  • BlackOut says:

    Not sure Barbara, out of all the networks and cable shows I rarely watch MSNBC.

    Does that AoSHQ pudding have liquor in it? Probably not a bad idea.

  • Barbara Munsey says:

    MSNBC is the best for all-out prog/prop, screaming irrationalism, dogwhistles, stereotypic alternate universe reality, rage, IOW the meme of the week.

    I’m going to watch them tomorrow night, just to see whether they have a rubber room ready for Chris Matthews, if Ed Schultz has a stroke, and whether Rachel Maddow’s voice gradually extends into the register only heard by bats as she frantically repeats “REPUBLICANS!” every third word.

    In the event they have reason to be happy, I’ll at least get a heads-up on what we shall all be assaulted with next via executive order, czarship, and how much we’ll all have to pay for it.

    Ace recommends a stock of Valu-Rite vodka, but personally, yuck. Beer’s fine if I want a drink.

  • BlackOut says:

    Haha, well Barbara for that form of entertainment I watch fair and balanced.

  • ACTivist says:

    Sorry Barbara but I never found comedy channels to be either funny or entertaining.

    Troll, doubt all you want. I have always been straight forward with you and everyone else. Nothing good comes from lying or deceit. Not in my nature. I don’t do polls or surveys, never have, never will and I don’t give them any credibility. If I thought predictions were worthy, I would have won the lottery by now with the numbers from the fortune cookies, be living on an island without a care in the world and some other numbnuts would be owning NVTH.

  • Matthew Osborn says:

    “…and how much we’ll all have to pay for it.”

    Riiiight….because Obama is a socialist wealth-distributor who has jacked up the deficit with his reckless spending…and because Paul Ryan’s signature isn’t on the Bush Tax cuts, $700 billion dollar TARP program (and an Auto Bailout so expensive it failed to pass) two unfunded wars and the un-funded Medicare Part D?

    How dare Obama.

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