It’s Almost Over!!!

By Loudoun Insider

Thank God!!!!!

Make your last minute predictions here, for the popular vote and/or electoral college numbers.  The winner will get …  well, something … the never ending respect of your TC brothers and sisters at the least.


  • David says:

    No liquor? This place is going downhill.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    Maybe we need to have another beer bash, with the winner comped all night!

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    I’m not even venturing a guess, since my guy, Gary Johnson will surely not win. I still can’t bring myself to vote for Romney, and third party candidates need more support across the board. The two party system is wretched and gets us nothing.

  • A.E. Gnat says:

    I predict that when the night is over, I will lament the fact that I once again made too much food, yet too few fresh margarita pitchers.

  • TCJohnson says:

    If this wasn’t a swing state I would be voting for Gary Johnson as well. But it is too close around here and I think Romney will be disastrous for this country.

  • Hillsboro says:

    Romney 277 / Obama 261

  • edmundburkenator says:

    I think Romney gets the oddball New Hampshire and the Old Confederacy (Virginia, Florida). Obama gets Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Which means it does come down to Ohio.

    Obama 277
    Romney 261

  • BlackOut says:

    I think Obama takes VA again. Kaine looks strong and I’ve got to think we’ll have some reverse coattails, and I think Johnson takes some votes from Romney. Seems to be a tie now but with these two facts I give the edge to Obama in VA.

    Obama wraps up the electoral college vote before we get returns from the left coast.

    Senate stays in Dems hands.

    I’ll go out on a limb here Akin will lose his re-election bid in Missouri. .

    The tough one is the popular vote. If I have to pick one I’ll say Obama.

    I just don’t by into the mittmomentum thing. I think he had it after the first debate, but I think it fizzled after that, and was kept alive as momentum by FOX and Drudge. It was fabricated FOX propaganda.

  • Leej says:

    Obama has this one. and i don’t care for either one The early vote is showing obama winning.

    Further noticed how Romney now all of a sudden changed his appearance suit and tie all the way 😉 He used to look like that and now looks like this 😉

  • TCJohnson says:

    I think Obama is going to lose North Carolina, Colorado and Florida, but will take all the other swing states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia…etc. etc.)

    That would give Obama 294, Romney 244.

    I think Obama will win the popular vote by 52%

  • David Dickinson says:

    Romney wins:

    Loudoun by 7%
    Virginia by 4%
    U.S. by 3%

  • Shiloh says:

    I predict that when it’s over, our mailboxes will no longer be stuffed with ads, our telephones will stop ringing constantly with robocalls and polls, and we can thankfully go back to watching ads for cars instead of candidates. And regardless of who wins, for these few blessings I’ll be very thankful!

  • Sane Person says:

    Obama 290
    Romney 248

    Romney takes Va, NC and Fla; Obama takes OH, Pa., Mich., Iowa, Wisc, Colo. and Nev.

    Here’s a good interactive map to make calculations:

  • A.E. Gnat says:

    Obama 303
    Romney 235

    Romney takes NC/Fla; Obama takes the others.

  • It all comes down to Ohio, which I think will go (very narrowly) for Romney resulting in:

    Romney: 275
    Obama: 263

    If Obama manages to hold Ohio, which is certainly possible but I don’t think it’ll happen, that would change it to:

    Obama: 281
    Romney: 257

    Either way, I think Romney wins the popular vote by 1 or 2 percentage points. A 2000-style split, where Romney wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote (and thus the presidency), is a real possibility if Obama manages to win Ohio.

  • I propose a Beer & Pancakes bash at IHOP in Sterling the following Saturday morning.

  • T.C.Johnson says:

    Is it too late for me to change my vote to Romney winning the presidency, Biden staying as vice president? I don’t think that will happen but it would be fun to watch from a distance.

  • Angry Pancake Man says:

    Sounds great to me, Lloyd. I hope no communists show up!

  • BlackOut says:

    Lloyd, that is funny!!

  • D-33 says:

    Obama – 303 Electoral Votes – 50.8% vote
    Romney – 235 Electoral Votes – 48.2% vote

    The only hold out is Florida – I have it by a narrow margin for Romney because of the soft economy caused by a depressed housing market, but this could easily turn for Obama if non-Cuban hispanic voter turnout exceeds 2008 totals.

    Virgil Goode/Gary Johnson combined gets 2.8 percent in Virginia, which makes a big difference in the Obama VA win.

    Obama wins Loudoun by 2 percent and matches his win total in VA.

    Senate – 54 D / 2 Ind (for 56)
    44 R

    Kaine (D) wins VA Senate (53%-47%)
    Donnelly (D) wins IN Senate
    Warren (D) wins MA Senate
    Baldwin (D) wins WI Senate
    Carmona (D) wins AZ Senate

    House – Democrats gain 7 seats

    Obama numbers in GA, SC, TX are better than 2008 due to higher rates of minority turnout (AA/Hispanic), forecasting future purple states.

  • BlackOut says:

    Antidotal alert!

    I wouldn’t have seen this one coming but Belmont Ridge Middle School held a mock election and Obama won!

    Belmont Ridge MIddle School sits right in the heart of eastern Loudoun and my inference is most middle schoolers probably are parroting what they hear at home.

  • David Dickinson says:

    The Obama antidote is Romney.

  • Hillsboro says:

    … or what they hear from their teachers.

    I hope there’s antidote for that!

  • BlackOut says:

    Hillsboro, I can assure you as part of the learning event for the school, one that I hear teachers and students were very excited about, it was cleared briefed to staff and teachers that this was to be a straight vote with no political coaching. It was a chance to explain the generic nature of how our country votes. That’s all.

    The spelling mistake does make me chuckle, touche’

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    I think D-33 has it nailed down.

    Obama with 303 EVs, and a shade over 50% of the national vote. Romney will get about 47%, with a decent 3% Republican protest vote for Gary Johnson and, in Virginia, for Virgil Goode. I think Johnson and Goode will get about 4% of the Republican vote in Virginia.

    Dems pick up Indiana and Massachusetts in the Senate, and lose North Dakota and Nebraska. Tester hangs on for the win in Montana. King takes the seat in Maine and caucuses with Dems, so a net gain of one seat for the Dem caucus in the Senate.

    I’ve paid almost zero attention to House races, but overall I think Dems will have a net gain of 6 or so seats, maybe a few more. Locally, Moran, Connolly and Wolf each roll to victory by at least 20% margins, most likely closer to 30% for Moran and Wolf.

    Tim Kaine will outperform the President in Virgina. Tim will beat Allen by around 6 points, 53-47.

  • Joe Budzinski says:

    Romney 324
    Obama gets the rest. Hey I HIRE people to do subtraction.

    Riots at Belmont Middle School.

    So they serve beer at IHOP or do you just have to bring your own?

  • FedUp says:

    national popular vote: Romney +2.3%
    electoral college: Romney 291, Obama 247
    Virginia: Romney +4.1%
    Loudoun: Romney +9.3%
    VA Senate: Allen +0.5%

  • Cato the Elder says:

    Doubling down and upping my EV total.

    Ohio by 20K, maybe less


  • Joe Budzinski says:

    So I’m still the high number for Romney at 324, right? That means I get credit for any actual above 324? Just want to be sure, keep my ducks in a row here.

    Has anything been decided about honorific titles or proclamations for the winner?

  • Elder Berry says:

    Obama by enough, barring late night log-ins by Karl Rove or Tagg Romney.

  • Dan says:

    Popular vote:

    Obama: 51.16%
    Romney: 47.71%
    Other: 1.13%

    Electoral Vote:

    Obama: 332
    Romney: 206

    Toughest two states to call (in my opinion):

    Florida. Truly too close to call, but in the end the very slightest of edges to Obama. But really, flip a damned coin.

    North Carolina. The closest margin for Obama in 2008 but the data tells me to put this one in the Romney column this time. Having seen the Obama operation up close in North Carolina I can attest that it is truly impressive. And I wouldn’t be shocked if Obama carries it again. Because North Carolina is going to be closer than a lot of folks realize. But one can’t let the heart rule the head so I’ll leave it in the Romney column and hope that I am wrong.

    In the spirit of Cato’s longshot WTF pick, here is my upset WTF pick:

    Heidi Heitkamp upsets Rick Berg for the Senate seat from North Dakota.

    Ain’t democracy grand?

  • Dan says:

    Of course, the real upset of the night would be for the one thing that nobody is predicting to happen. And nobody is looking for it because no one is predicting it will happen. That would be for Big Tommy’s little girl to get the Speaker’s gavel back as a result of this election.

    Mind you, I’m not making that prediction. But that would be the biggest possible upset of the day because no one would have seen it coming. Which is the very definition of an upset.

  • BlackOut says:

    Here’s something to think about Paul Ryan is running for re-election to his house seat and is getting competent competition. Maybe his fall back position isn’t as safe as he thought.

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    No way Dems are taking back the House this year. But, as a bonus selection, I predict that Republicans dump John Boner as Speaker and elevate Eric Can’tor to Speaker.

    Republicans, can you show any polls anywhere that show Loudoun County being 5-6 points more Republican than the state as a whole? Because, again, if you’re picking Romney to win by 7-9 points in Loudoun, then Romney would win Virginia by 9-12 points. And no poll has any Romney margin even close to that.

    Republicans are banking on every poll, national and state-level, to be biased against Romney. That’s their hope, and nothing more.

  • Smith says:

    Obama – 315
    Romney – 222

    Kaine wins. Obama loses VA.

    Obama wins FL, but loses NC.

    Obama wins popular vote.

    Final states are not decided until Wednesday, but Romney concedes early Wednesday morning bc the math simply will not work.

    Most important: some random story like the ‘new black panther party in 2008″ will rile the right and the de-legitimacy of Obama’s re-election starts immediately. Florida will have voting problems again.

    By 2016, Obama has 4 Supreme Court justices Obamacare lives, no war with Iran and unemployment is at 6.7%.

    Hopefully the GOP implodes and comes back as a moderate party unafraid of immigrants and some compromise. You cant win elections off white peoples backs anymore.

  • Smith says:

    And the Democrats clean the GOP clock in the Senate.

    Lots of conservative pundits like Noon, Kraut, Will, Morris, remained employed with cushy jobs while giving awful predictions.

    Who needs high paid columnists anymore? You wonder why newspapers are going broke.

    AND…. Lloyd remains and idiot.

  • Lloyd says:

    Again, i will bet anyone a beer that Romney wins Loudoun. Put up or shut up, Dem loyalists!

    BO, your bet is booked.

    St. Pauli Girl, please 😉

  • Cato the Elder says:

    “Republicans are banking on every poll, national and state-level, to be biased against Romney. ”

    I don’t know if I’d use the term “biased” but I do think that pollsters are using wildly different turnout models in their likely voter screens. If you think it’s going to be the 2008 electorate then PPP is probably right. If you think it’s going to look something like 2004 then the numbers are a lot tighter than you think.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    “St. Pauli Girl, please.”

    This explains a lot.

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    Cato, the point is, sites like 538 do account for the disparity of opinions on sample sizes and makeup. I don’t rely on PPP polls, since they have a Dem bias. I certainly don’t believe Rasmussen polls, since they have a Republican bias. But, being a Dem, if PPP is +5 and Rasmussen is tied, then I’ll split the difference and say the Dem is up by 2 points or so.

    If the “Dem” polls all had Obama up by five points, and the “Rep” polls had Romney up by five points, then you could argue the point that it’s a voter model issue on one side or the other. But, today, the polls aren’t really that different. The Republican polls show a lot of ties or Obama up by a thin margin. That’s good enough for a Dem victory right there.

    Turnout all throughout Fairfax and Arlington is very high. That’s very, very good for Dem candidates.

  • Joe Budzinski says:

    Good but long day at the polls. Turnout at the one I work – Rolling Ridge, the most Democratic precinct – was down from 2008.

    2005 votes out of 2900 registered. Don’t know what the 2008 count was, but they said it was way down this year. Then Dem turnout effort was not so great.

    Almost zero controversy though. Sometimes there are minor annoyances, and you think:

    I want so badly for the other side to lose, I want to hear their weeping.

    I want to hear their women weeping.

    I want, even, to hear their WOMEN’S women weeping.

    Yes I want to hear that sweet, sweet sound of their women’s women weeping.

    But then, I realize that was the fatigue thinking and I realize, our Democrats are not so bad, nor is our political system, at least here in Loudoun.

    And now, some MSNBC.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    Good report Joe, and biting commentary as well! I just put up an election night catch-all post, please report there as well.

  • D-33 says:

    I’m declaring my predictions as “spot on” for this contest, especially the Senate races. I would love to have some beer and pancakes with Lloyd the Idiot.

  • Hillsboro says:

    Assuming Florida doesn’t find too many dimpled chads, Dan nailed the electoral college tally at 332-206.

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