Election Night Reports And Commentary

By Loudoun Insider

Well, some polls are closed and we’ll eventually see some real results. Use this post to report and discuss amongst yourselves – none of us here will have any better info than anyone else watching the news.


Comments

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Ahh… those books. Thanks Joe.

    Epistemic closure is tough to beat. Perhaps a twelve step program would work.

    First, admit you are powerless over yesterday’s events and your party is unmanageable.

    If you are interested in the next 11 steps, let me know and I can post them for you.

  • Dan says:

    You can say what you like about the power of incumbency. And it certainly exists. But I think going damn near two hundred years since we last had three consecutive presidents elected to a second term speaks pretty loudly too.

    Getting re-elected isn’t a slam dunk. It isn’t easy at all.

  • FedUp says:

    “Be honest – did you Republicans really, really think that Romney was going to win?”

    I did, NJSM. I saw a lot of enthusiasm at the rallys, lots of yard signs, and I know lots of people who voted for Obama in 2008 who were voting for Romney this year. The recovery has been anemic, with straight years of trillion dollar deficits, and no president has ever won re-election with an unemployment rate this high. To top it off, the hapless 3-6 Redskins lost to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Surely, the reliable Redskins Rule would apply. It may have been a different outcome had it not been for that devastating “47%” video.

    Obama only carried VA by 2.7% this time, compared to 6.3% in 08. One bright spot is that my precinct did go for Romney by a solid margin!

  • Matthew Osborn says:

    “The recovery has been anemic, with straight years of trillion dollar deficits, and no president has ever won re-election with an unemployment rate this high”

    Maybe part of the GOP’s problem is that they’re the only ones buying this shit.

    The recovery has been historically impressive. Unemployment was at 10% a few years ago, and it’s under 7% now in spite of public sector losses.

    And your Vice Presidential candidate signed off on most of the recent deficit increases that the GOP has tried so hard to pin on Obama.

    Maybe the voting public just isn’t as gullible at the Republican Party needs it to be. The 47% video was devastating because it’s how Mitt Romney really felt. Glad he shared that with us.

  • Hop says:

    I really did think Romney was gonna win…

    I echo FedUp’s sentiment about the rallys, yard signs etc. Also completely agree with his assessment of the anemic economic recovery.

    Obama came to office with an unemployment rate of 7.8, it is now at 7.9 (not under 7), but the number of people working is actually lower than when he took office due to people giving up looking for work.

    Between Mainstream media and the ruthless Obama campaign, they lied, slandered and magnified things out of proportion to paint the worst picture of 2 of the most upstanding individuals in politics (Ryan/Romney). But hey they won… whatever the cost. They should be so proud.

    Go back and look at the whole Romney/Ryan campaign. I couldn’t be more proud about the way he conducted themselves and stayed above the fray until the bitter end. Sure they attacked the POLICIES of the president, but that is where it ended. Before anyone mentions his ad on the auto industry and sending jobs to China, PLEASE do more research.
    As for Ryan with the recent deficit increases, at least recongnizes they need reduction and has provided a budget which confronts the issue, unlike the president.

    Osborn said “Maybe the voting public just isn’t as gullible at the Republican Party needs it to be. ” I totally disagree. It was the Obama campaign that had to provide free concerts to impressionable, college students and bus rides to early polling stations straight from the concert giving them no time to digest the propaganda that was just sold to them. And the promises of free phones to the poor (nobody can deny that to me, I have family members that love him for the free phone they got, and cheered when he was re-elected in hopes of more free things).

    So who, really, are the gullible ones?

    I am proud to be able to say my candidate ran with integrity. I know he would have been a uniter and would have used the experience he already has to get this country going again. The way it SHOULD be going. But we’ll never know now.

    Let’s see how Obama keeps this “historically impressive” recovery going. Please prove me wrong.

  • Hop says:

    Also, trying not to be racist here, but how else does a candidate carry 93% of the black community without it being something racial? Only 7% of black americans are conservative? Don’t think so.

    If Romney were black, all other things equal, it would have been a different outcome last night. No doubt.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    “I am proud to be able to say my candidate ran with integrity.”

    You’ve already redefined “conservative”, now you’re going after “integrity”?

    I guess it makes a certain amount of sense.

  • Hop says:

    Please point out some specific indescretions in his campaign and then we discuss from there….

  • Cato the Elder says:

    “Republicans got their people out, Dems got ours. There are just more Dems and Dem-leaning independents than Republicans.”

    That may well be the case, but not hitting McCain’s numbers = GOTV fail on many different levels. You’re telling me that a voter willing to pull a lever for a ticket with Palin on it isn’t willing to go Romney? C’mon.

    And I’ll tell you just how bad the data that the GOP depends on is – every four years or so I end up getting sucked into “volunteering” massive amounts of my free time trying to come up with a better mousetrap for real time voter flushing. Four years ago I was very vocal about how the VV was a disgrace and that whomever maintained it should be taken out back and shot. I even tripped down to RNC HQ to see Steele and presented him with a detailed list of things that needed to be done to fix it.

    Four years later I’m doing the same thing, walking through the entries and what do I find? Two names that haven’t been here for 8 years. I know this because I bought their house when they moved to Pennsylvania. Unbelievable.

    So the hit rate for the flushing effort was approximately 1:25 voters. That’s abysmal. What I’m trying to tell you is that everything starts and ends with the source. I can build you a slick iphone app that you can id voters immediately with and generate a real time flush list but if you run it against bullshit data you’re going to get bullshit results. Ditto generating walk lists, etc.

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    Cato,

    You are aware that there are still millions of votes still to be counted? Not specifically cast for one candidate or another, but the absentee and provisional ballots themselves haven’t had their final counts?

    The absentees (90,000+) and provisionals (who knows how many) for Fairfax are still not included in the totals, and that’s just Fairfax. There are a couple hundred thousand votes still to be added to the Virginia totals, and several million more from the rest of the country.

  • Hop says:

    “When guys you read/listen to and respect (Barone, Will, Rove, etc) get it so very wrong like this, what do you think about it? ”

    I think each of them really believed what they were spewing. It seemed to make sense. With all the failures in Obama’s first time, I thought there could be no way dems would come out in the same numbers.

    What blew me away the most was the fact that Republicans came out in FEWER numbers than 2008…

    Oh well, back to the drawing board. FWIW, I am not republican. Mostly identify with fiscally conservative part.

    One final surprise – I did volunteer at the polls handing out sample ballots, and the number of angry white women (simply based on the looks I got when I asked if they wanted a sample republican ballot :) ) that were out with a vengeance. That whole war on women resonated more than I would have expected.

    I’ll get over this loss eventually. I really do hope they all finally work together for the good of all of us!

  • Matthew Osborn says:

    “Please point out some specific indescretions in his campaign”

    You’re talking about the campaign that ran “Obama took work requirements out of welfare” ads for a month, while admitting that their campaign wasn’t concerned about fact-checking organizations rating that completely untrue?

    Your candidate knew perfectly well that what the Administration did was give the states more freedom to get results by personalizing the welfare system on a state level, which state Govs had been asking for.

    “Between Mainstream media and the ruthless Obama campaign, they lied, slandered and magnified things out of proportion to paint the worst picture of 2 of the most upstanding individuals in politics (Ryan/Romney).”

    Are you fucking kidding me? The Obama Administration didn’t tell a group of wealthy donors that half of the country should go fuck themselves for being too old, veteran or poor to pay taxes. And then Romney has the nerve to refuse to prove that HE pays taxes (which looks more increasingly more unlikely)? And Paul Ryan was simultaneously publicly deriding Obama for “his spending” while sending letters to the Administration begging for money from those exact programs.

    You had a Presidential Candidate that even conservatives admitted changed his “convictions” for whatever audience he was speaking with. Gov Romney, Primary Romney & the final Candidate Romney might as well have been different people. Upstanding indeed.

  • Smith says:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2012/11/obama_the_moderate_republican_what_the_2012_election_should_teach_the_gop.html?wpisrc=most_viral

    Dont worry GOP, you elected a moderate Republican. You just cant see it through your FOX News shaded sun glasses.

    Man would you guys have hated Ike,

  • Joe Budzinski says:

    I found this fellow’s post-election thoughts to be worth ruminating upon, particularly his subhead.

    http://www.libertarianrepublican.net/2012/11/the-end-of-liberty-in-america-only.html

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Joe, are you joking right now. I just don’t know you well enough to tell.

  • Linda B says:

    Woah, that guy’s hard core. Don’t worry, eb, some of Joe’s best friends are Democrats.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Ok. Thanks Linda. Just worrying a bit for Joe.

  • Eric the 1/2 Troll says:

    “Also, trying not to be racist here…’

    I guess it was just too heavy a lift, eh?

  • Hillsboro says:

    I think Joe has found Angry Pancake Man!

  • FedUp says:

    “The recovery has been historically impressive.”

    Not exactly, MO. You should read an excellent article in the latest issue of Barron’s comparing this recovery to the one in the early 80s. I’ll give the Obama administration/campaign credit in that they did do a great job of making it appear a lot better than it actually was. On the other hand, the Romney campaign did not do a good enough job of pointing out how bad things are. For instance, employment peaked in Jan. 2008, right when the recession started. The Oct. 2012 jobs count is still about 3.5 million shy of that and at the rate of job creation, it won’t get there for nearly another 2 years, assuming there isn’t a double-dip recession. That is pathetic, especially considering a hundred thousand or so jobs need to be added every month just to keep up with population growth.

  • Joe Budzinski says:

    At a time like this it just seems important we not give in to the temptation of easy, one size fits all solutions – keep an open mind, and remember there are multiple paths forward. Republicans feeling hopeless might need an approach like this one to allow the healing process to begin.

  • Matthew Osborn says:

    I was only 8 in 1982 when unemployment was at 10%, so I don’t know all of specifics about the economy (and Congress) at the time, but I’m guessing that’s not an apples to apples comparison. Was the public sector hemorrhaging jobs during Regan’s 5 year recovery? I know he was certainly dealing with a less hostile Congress (pretty sure the debt ceiling was raised under Regan…what….16 times?)

    So fine…I’ll revise “historic” to “potentially historic”. To call it pathetic is ridiculous though. 4.5 million private section jobs have been created since the economy bottomed out. That’s pathetic?

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Comparing the thing that Reagan had to fix to what Obama had to fix (and still has to fix) is a good exercise in context.

    Clue: look at the depth of the recession, the reasons for the recession (oil’s role in the 80s), the Fed’s actions during the Carter years and what flexibility Reagan had compared to Obama (they cut rates from 20 percent in 1982 to around 6 percent — 13 basis points guys), and then look at the debt creation (yeah, Reagan doubled it).

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    The early 80s recession was a walk in the park compared to the Crash of 2008. As was the early 90s recession and even the tech bubble recession of 2001.

    Housing prices weren’t dropping 20% a year in the early 80s. The stock markets didn’t lose 50% of their value Giant banks weren’t being sold for pennies on the dollar just to keep them open.

  • Leej says:

    housing is something I know about.

    people speculate in housing for some reason. and it ruins the business. what that does it drives up the price to a point there is hardly anyone left to buy. then they lose. builders build as a business not as speculators. i don’t know how many people i know think they can build because they think building is simple and then get their as*es handed to them and call for advice how to deal with the problems they got themselves into. and i have to say nothing i can do you are past of the point of no return.

    building is one of the hardest and toughest businesses out there. it also requires major money these days.

    I will leave it with this building is a tough business not speculation. building is not easy money ;-)

  • FedUp says:

    “then look at the debt creation (yeah, Reagan doubled it).”

    Edmund, from the October CBO monthly budget review:

    “At 7.0 percent of gross domestic product, the 2012 deficit was down from 8.7 percent in 2011 and 9.0 percent in 2010 but greater than in any year between 1947 and 2008.”

    This shows you how deficit spending has soared the past 4 years and is higher than Reagan and Bush I/II years.

    From November 2010 CBO report:

    “The federal deficit fell as a share of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) from 10.0 percent in 2009 to 8.9 percent in 2010–the second-highest deficit as a share of GDP since 1945 and about four times the average deficit as a share of GDP recorded between 2005 and 2008.”

  • Joe Budzinski says:

    That is outstanding. We need a t-shirt with that guy’s image on it.

    It’s not that I could go down that road, but to remember the road is there.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Fedup, you last post proves you need to look a little harder at the numbers and remember the context.

    Good Lord. This is like helping a 16-year-old with her homework.

  • Cato the Elder says:

    Dondero is a johnny-come-lately. I’ve been doing this for years.

  • Linda B. says:

    LOL, Cato, this place needs “like” buttons.

  • Joe Budzinski says:

    Yeah Cato, it’s like Colonel Kurtz said:

    “The will to do that! Perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure.”

  • FedUp says:

    I have no idea what you are talking about, Edmund. The stats in the last post show that the deficits as a % of GDP during each of Obama’s first 4 years were greater that in any year between 1947 and 2008. The employment and GDP stats are equally as bad. I get the context thing and trying to make the economic conditions during the Obama term look worse than at any time since the depression so that what little improvement there has been looks like a lot.

Leave Comment