Obama Second Term Predictions

By Liberal Anthropologist

Time to put down some very early predictions for Obama’s second term. What will happen by or on Election Day 2016 in:

1] Unemployment
2] GDP
3] Debt
4] Deficit
5] Obamacare
6] Terrorism
7] War
8] Foreign Policy
9] Climate Change Policy
10] Immigration

And finally: Election 2016 prediction: R or D?

We are all going to be wrong, so no fear of making guesses….


Comments

  • Mine:

    1] Unemployment 7.x %

    2] GDP – Very slow growth

    3] Debt – 24 Trillion

    4] Deficit – 2.5 Trillion

    5] Obamacare – Increased health care costs, still 10′s of millions uninsured, barely implemented.

    6] Terrorism- Unchanged

    7] War – No wars

    8] Foreign Policy – Unchanged (not good).

    9] Climate Change Policy – Some stuff at EPA, but mainly unchanged.

    10] Immigration – BiPartsian Deal.

    And finally: Election 2016 prediction: R or D? – R

  • NateDogg614 says:

    1] Unemployment: Hopefully lower than it is now.
    2] GDP: Sluggish and stagnant.
    3] Debt: Worse than it is now.
    4] Deficit: Worse than it is now.
    5] Obamacare: Assuming that it’s still the law of the land and hasn’t been struck down by another SC challenge, most likely just as unpopular as ever.
    6] Terrorism: Still in existance.
    7] War: Assuming China and Japan haven’t fought it out, the threat will always be there.
    8] Foreign Policy: Not sure what will happen on this front.
    9] Climate Change Policy: Still hammering out deals at the UN, nothing significant on the federal level here.
    10] Immigration: Assuming there’s some kind of reform passed in the next 2 years — most likely a path to citizenship for those who are here illegally — as will as their offspring who were born here.

    In terms of 2016, I refer to to the book “The Keys to the White House.” If 6 or more of the 13 True/False statements are False, then the Republicans win a majority of the popular vote and the WH (assuming the Dems don’t win by a narrow margin in the EC).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Waiting for Cato, so I can go opposite…

  • Cato the Elder says:

    1.) EB will chug the 2016 Dem nominee’s cock just as hard as he did BHO’s (yes, Hillary’s got one).

  • BlackOut says:

    I hope the admins level that last comment from Cato up.

    Bitter bitter man.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Cato will probably delete it when he stops giggling.

  • BlackOut says:

    level=leave

  • BlackOut says:

    Probably right ed, after he reads it a few more times to himself.

  • Eric the half a troll says:

    Cato has admin privileges? Wow, they will give the keys to any old a-hole these days, won’t they?

  • Dan says:

    Damn, Cato! You have made some pretty harsh comments lately. In the past your wit has had a sharp edge but has always seemed good natured. Perhaps you aren’t drinking enough beer lately?

    LA, it would take a powerful crystal ball to make accurate predictions on all these matters this far out. The odds are great that we’ll all be as wrong as the “professional” pundits are on a regular basis. Only we won’t get paid for it like they do.

    Are you really going to keep track of predictions made four years out? If so, I’ll join the circus with mine at some point.

    For the moment I’ll disagree with Cato as to who the Democratic nominee will be in 2016. I’m betting it won’t be Clinton. I don’t think she is going to run.

    I have no comment to make regarding her genitalia.

  • Cato the Elder says:

    “Cato has admin privileges? Wow, they will give the keys to any old a-hole these days, won’t they?”

    Indeed, and if I wasn’t such a big believer in the first amendment I’d be deleting flagrant lies and bullshit in the comments.

    Which would pretty much be every post of yours.

  • Eric the half a troll says:

    Cato, you wouldn’t know the truth if it bit you in the ass. Now don’t you have a midterm to study for?

  • BlackOut says:

    Cato is such a strong believer in the First Amendment he refuses to delete his own bullshit. How that is a fella of principle.

  • Liberal Anthropologist says:

    Dan,

    Yes. Let’s keep track. You are the official keeper of records. And for simplicity, let’s pick one measure that is easy to find and not have too much debate on.

    I propose the (after adjustment) unemployment rate as it is clearly an important item.

    I will put 100 bucks down for charity of my choice whether I win or lose and I will put another 100 bucks down if you win.

    How to measure though? That number isn’t a yes/no. Thoughts? A different measure?

  • Cato the Elder says:

    Aww. You guys flatter me.

  • Eric the 1/2 Troll says:

    1] Unemployment – 5.5% or so
    2] GDP – growth strong on housing boom
    3] Debt – lower percent of GDP (mostly because fo GDP growth)
    4] Deficit – ditto
    5] Obamacare – yes
    6] Terrorism – will still happen
    7] War – define “war”
    8] Foreign Policy – about the same – more involvement in northern Africa perhaps
    9] Climate Change Policy – nope, thanks to Republican’s but will start having public realization that R’s stance is doing great harm to the country and our agrarian economy.
    10] Immigration – yes, with pathway to citizenship for illegals but again depends on whether Republicans can swing their base – this will be fun to watch.

    Election 2016 – probably D because R’s will not let Christie get nomination.

  • Carnac the Magnificent says:

    Johnny puts the card to his forehead for predictions for the year 2016.

    1] Unemployment 6.5%
    2] GDP 1.8% very slow though steady

    3] Debt 22T

    4] Deficit 2T

    5] Obamacare – Modifications due to increased under employment as businesses reduce work week to 30hrs to avoid providing healthcare. Moves to further take control of medical health insurance due to sky rocketing costs to states and federal government.

    6] Terrorism -Bad guys will continue being bad

    7] War- No major actions though 2 or 3 police actions

    8] Foreign Policy -Water Policy : Straits of Hormuz and Malacca, South China Sea

    9] Climate Change Policy- gasoline $5-$6 per gallon Electric price increase 20%

    10] Immigration Agreement for amnesty

    And finally: Election 2016 prediction: R or D? Grumpy old white men can’t figure out how to win so another D win

  • LocoConservative says:

    6.5%, huh?
    Do you live here?
    190,000 jobs gone in Virginia alone due to defense cuts.
    Then there’s that whole EPA shutting down coal plants which will toss coalminers into the unemployment lines by even more thousands, and that’s not mentioning the bump in electricity pricing due to those shuttings.
    U6 is currently at 14%, no matter how they try to hide it.

  • LocoConservative says:

    Iran-Israel blows up. I predicted it before 2012, but now it’s inevitable.

  • Carnac the Magnificent says:

    Longer than you probably Loco. Cycles ebb and flow over the past 40 years especially here in NOVA. Defense cuts can be absorbed in a realignment away from Cold War strategy and cutting of waste and fraud. Drive down Rt 664 in Norfolk lots of trains and expanding of ports to ship coal overseas.

  • FedUp says:

    1] Unemployment – 9.1%
    2] GDP – Very sluggish growth until recession in year 3 or 4
    3] Debt – $20T
    4] Deficit – $1T
    5] Obamacare – Struck down
    6] Terrorism – No change
    7] War – No new war
    8] Foreign Policy – Better
    9] Climate Change Policy – Carbon reduction policies will drive utility bills skyward, while global output of carbon will continue to rise
    10] Immigration – reforms implemented

    Election 2016 – R (and it won’t be Chris Christy!)

  • BlackOut says:

    Chris Christy may be it but as a D. He’s as conservative as they get and the Republicans are leaving him just like they are leaving the likes of Colin Powell.

    small tent, small tent, purity, purity, lose more, lose more. But Hey Principles Are Solid, just old and out of date.

  • Cato the Elder says:

    Stop it with the Christie talk. You can’t be a fat, sloppy fuck and get elected President in America. It’s all about the optics.

  • BlackOut says:

    William Taft was elected at 335 lbs or so.

    I guess you now are eliminating fat people from the rolls of the GOP.

  • NateDogg614 says:

    I’m personally not a fan of the “purity” test. I’d rather have a moderate Republican who votes with me 60-80% of the time, than a liberal/progressive/socialist/whatever Democrat who votes with me 0% of the time.

    The Tea Party is good in channelling conservative populism and worked very well in several races in 2010 and 2012. HOWEVER, one needs to pick their battles (Kentucky, Florida, Utah, Texas, Nebraska) and go with a moderate in others (Deleware, Connecticut, pretty much all of New England). Also, one needs to have someone who can convey the message well. Conservatism has a strong message to convey to the American public and it has good ideas. It needs to be sure that it has good leaders as well.

    I have nothing against Christie. Indeed, its refreshing to see Republicans win in states that have been blue for a while now. I don’t know if he’s the best standard-bearer for the GOP in 2016, but I have no doubt that he will run. I like him a lot better that Cuomo, O’Malley, and Biden, that is for certain. ;)

  • NateDogg614 says:

    “Chris Christy may be it but as a D. He’s as conservative as they get and the Republicans are leaving him just like they are leaving the likes of Colin Powell.”

    Conservative for New Jersey, absolutely. For the rest of the country? That’s up for a LOT of debate. Same with Powell.

  • NateDogg614 says:

    http://dailycaller.com/2013/01/23/in-graduate-thesis-john-brennan-argued-for-government-censorship-too-much-freedom-is-possible/

    Well, this line of attack didn’t work too well against Gov. McDonnell. Anyone think it will work against Brennan?

  • Cato the Elder says:

    “William Taft was elected at 335 lbs or so”

    Taft didn’t have to run with 24/7 television coverage, idiot.

  • NateDogg614 says:

    I will say this though, Christie is in good shape for November 2013:

    Voters approve 74 – 21 percent of the job Gov. Christie is doing, his highest job score ever and matching New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo as having the highest job approval of any governor in the states surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

    Christie’s approval is 93 – 4 percent among Republicans, 56 – 37 percent among Democrats and 78 – 18 percent among independent voters. Men approve 79 – 18 percent while women approve 69 – 24 percent.

    The governor deserves reelection, voters say 68 – 24 percent, with Democrats at 47 – 43 percent.

    The potential downside to this is that national Democrats abandon New Jersey as a lost cause and look to prop up McAwful down here in Virginia.

  • FedUp says:

    BO, the Republican Party is not as bad off as you would like it to be. Romney lost the election more than Obama won it.

  • NateDogg614 says:

    The GOP (just as the Democrats did 8 years ago this time) are going through their soul searching process and looking to regroup. I do agree that Romney lost more than Obama won — his majority was reduced from 53% to 51%, which is something that hasn’t happened since FDR was elected for term #3.

    8 years ago, even though Bush’s margin increased from 49% to 51%, I didn’t think he had a mandate at that time. In my view Obama doesn’t even come close to a mandate, in particular since the GOP still holds the H of Rs.

  • BlackOut says:

    Problem!

    Romney lost the election? With that as a conclusion to an introspective search of why Obama won will guarantee history repeats itself.

    Throw Romney under the bus, with no culpability? Big problem there FedUp.

  • BlackOut says:

    Another gem, “we won because we didn’t lose by as much”

  • NateDogg614 says:

    “Another gem, “we won because we didn’t lose by as much””

    I think the Dems were saying that in 1988 ;)

  • BlackOut says:

    Another constructive gem: “well the dems did the same thing”

  • NateDogg614 says:

    Well, its true. Both sides can easily claim that the opposite side has done the same thing in the past.

  • NateDogg614 says:

    When you think about it both sides are guilty of the following:

    1) Corruption

    2) Scandal

    3) Overreach on policy

    4) Misreading political mandates

    5) Accusing the other side of doing something that they have already done a few years prior

    6) Gone to war

    7) Had a terrorist attack happen on their watch

    8) Accuse the other side of blatant hypocracy and being unpatriotic

    9) Treated a close loss as a “moral victory”

    10) Sought to purge the moderates from their side as being ” not ideologically pure enough.”

    And…..so forth. Those are the first 10 I could think of.

  • 1] & 2] Unemployment and GDP: There will be a recession in the 2nd term, Obama will blame it on Bush and Romney and the poor bastards in the House who are hamstrung, unemployment will remain between around 8 percent because labor participation rate will drop into the low sixties, food stamps users will grow to 55 million, and Romney’s 47 percent will rise to 51 percent, in other words everything will be wonderful on the progressive front – we’ll be closer to utopia than ever.
    3] Debt: $22 trillion.
    4] Deficit: We’ll have our first $2 trillion annual deficit after a head fake just below a trillion dollar deficit in FY 2013.
    5] Obamacare: It will be under assault by the right and the left, with the left moving full bore in support of government monopoly, purveying the lie that it will cost less.
    6] Terrorism: We won’t care since not on our shores, but just wait until the next five years though.
    7] War: All over the Middle East, and SW Asia, seeping into Israel. We’ll send weapons but no troops and little in the way of logistic support.
    8] Foreign Policy: Do we have one?
    9] Climate Change Policy: Obama will spend tens of billions of dollars annually tilting at windmills and basking in the sun.
    10] Immigration: Yeah, something will pass because everyone wants it.

    Cato for President in 2016!

  • FedUp says:

    BO, how about that “47 percent video” that was taken at a private fundraiser at a private residence? Romney was hammered with that the last few months of the campaign. That probably cost him the election.

    Where are your predictions?

  • BlackOut says:

    Well FedUp that definitely had an impact. And that happened while he was the GOP nominee. Many other things killed him along with that gem.

  • BlackOut says:

    Oh and now Paul Ryan comes out and says we didn’t do a good enough job communicating. What!

    OK, lesson number 3, we need to shout louder.

    I am telling you this shallow analysis is going to lead to a repeat.

    It’s about the policies! It’s about one specific religion ruling the agenda! It’s about not listening to the majority of America and adapting to contemporary thought! It’s about thinking only white America knows best!

  • Liberal Anthropologist says:

    Eric is on the low side currently with 5.5% unemployment and FedUp up at 9.1%.

    Anyone want to predict higher or lower than those?

  • Liberal Anthropologist says:

    PS, if we had a libertarian president, the unemployment would be 1%.

    Second PS. A horrible thing has happened. Glenn Beck is aligning himself with the Libertarian Party. While he is right to do so, do not associate his paranoid delusions with the party itself. If you do, then I will trot out some really interesting Democrats. :-)

  • Liberal Anthropologist says:

    One other note. It is an incredibly silly meme to suggest the Republicans were somehow crushed or had a terrible election. They lost the presidency. They maintained status quo. The votes were pretty close in the scheme of things.

    The memes that develop on the left are very strange. I can only assume they were so downhearted after the first Obama debate where he wasn’t quite down from his dope high that when he won they FELT it was big.

    No idea. But it was not a big win and Obama has no specific mandate on anything. The loyal opposition should resist him when he does wrong.

  • edmundburkenator says:

    LA, what do you think about the vote totals in the House if you take away the gerrymandering?

    Not good for Rs. Not good for the long-term health of Rs either.

    “PS, if we had a libertarian president, the unemployment would be 1%.”

    Well, if Libertarians were in charge, there would be privately held firms “calculating” the rates, so there would be firms that would say 1 percent and those that say 30 percent. The market would then pick the rate that it wanted by paying the firm that provided the desired rate. The rate would be determined by “market forces”, not data. Right?

  • NateDogg614 says:

    “One other note. It is an incredibly silly meme to suggest the Republicans were somehow crushed or had a terrible election. They lost the presidency. They maintained status quo. The votes were pretty close in the scheme of things.”

    The GOP is also doing very well on the state level. 30 Governorships, majorities in state houses and state senates, not to mention goodness knows how many local officials. All of this translates into a large bench of up-and-comers for the Federal level.

    I like the GOPs bench for the coming years. I don’t see too many names on the Democrats side. Hillary? Maybe. O’Malley? Boring. Cuomo? Competing with O’Malley to be the most liberal/progressive/socialist/whatever state in the union. Biden? He’s so gaffetastic! Corey Booker? What has he done? Frankly, with the exception of Booker, the Dems bench is old and white. Gee, isn’t that what they accuse the GOP of being?

  • NateDogg614 says:

    Thought this was interesting:

    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/kirsten-powers-to-oreilly-dems-less-tolerant-of-dissent-because-theyre-used-to-controlling-the-media/

    O’Reilly said the study finds liberals are far more sensitive about criticism, and a significant percentage of them have ended online relationships due to political differences. Powers explained that after getting out of her own “Democratic bubble,” she noticed that conservatives tend to be more open to hearing opposing viewpoints than liberals.

    “Liberals, because they are used to controlling all the media, pretty much, academia, that for them, when they hear things that don’t jibe with what they want to hear, it’s very disconcerting and unsettling to them.”

    Powers added that most of these liberals are generally shocked about dissenting views because they just assume everyone believes their beliefs are just common sense. Kate Obenshain agreed with Powers, saying that when conservatives on college campuses openly disagree with liberal orthodoxy, they are charged with “violating the campus speech codes.”

    Let me add my 2 cents on this: I’m certainly all ears, even though I may not agree at the end of the day and will defend my viewpoints. (The interesting thing about this is I have been told that this makes me close-minded. Funny how its always the conservatives who are the close-minded ones and not the liberals.)

  • NateDogg614 says:

    Yeah, this isn’t creepy:

    http://www.punditpress.com/2013/01/after-1460-letters-to-obama-heart.html

    Tom Foreman is a CNN “reporter” who few have heard of. Maybe no one’s noticed him because he’s been writing letters to President Barack Obama. Often. Every single day, in fact. For four years. That’s 1,460 letters.

    For some reason, this song from Wierd Al seems fittingly appropriate:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJQRWlewflo

    Now, to be fair, this is just ONE GUY. In the media. But still…..when was the last time we heard about somone doing this when the President was a Republican? Anyone? Bueller?

  • Elder Berry says:

    Nate, you’re talking to yourself.

    But what’s new about that?

  • NotJohnSMosby says:

    For these predictions, are Republicans using the same math they used last year for the Presidential campaign?

Leave Comment