It is normal for partisans to like their party’s chances in an election. In 2008, Del. Tim Hugo seems possible if not likely to compete for the nomination for the chance to go up against darling of the far-left Leslie Byrne for Tom Davis’s open 11th seat. Liberals like their chances with Byrne. I like our chances with Hugo.
Tim Hugo has only ever been a candidate for the 40th district, representing Southwestern Fairfax County, so its difficult to say with certainty how well he would play in the rest of the 11th district. However, there is reason to believe he would be a particularly strong Congressional candidate.
In 2007, Hugo was heavily targeted by the state Democratic Party. His opponent, Rex Simmons, spent over half-a-million dollars trying to unseat him, including $300K from the state party and close to another $100K from Virginia Democratic PACs like Moving Virginia Forward. Yet Hugo not only won, he would with a resounding 57% of the vote, trouncing Simmons while raising over $600K, only $150K from the state Republican Party.
In a district that George Allen lost in 2006 and Jerry Kilgore lost in 2005, Hugo beat his opponent by 14 percentage points, outperforming Allen, the entire GOP statewide ticket in 2005, and George Bush in 2004.
Of the 14 precincts, Tim Hugo lost only four in his re-election bid, compared to at least seven for Allen, Kilgore, Bolling, and McDonnell, and 6 for Bush in 2004. In the three precincts that Hugo won that Allen and Kilgore lost, he outperformed them by an average of seven points. Hugo also performed well in Democratic strongholds, winning Green Trails precinct where even Tom Davis lost in 2006, and winning 41% in London Towne West, full of low-income, high density houses and young voters where George Allen won only 31% of the vote. Here, Hugo outperformed even Frank Wolf by three points.
Once Tim Hugo ventures outside of his district in a run for Congress, his name ID drops and the advantages he has in the 40th fade, but that’s what campaigns are for. In the meantime, he has a proven ability to raise money independently, to compete strongly when targeted by the opposition, to win big where Republicans win big, and to lose small where Republicans lose big. As a bonus, he is a pragmatic conservative and has a great grasp of both state and federal issues.
If Tom Davis retires, the election to replace him will be one of the most hotly contested races in the country. In Tim Hugo we have a candidate who can put up a strong fight to keep the seat in the hands of a Republican. I like our chances.
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Jan 11th by VA Blogger
Historical correction:
Tim Hugo has not only run in the 40th HOD District. He also ran in the 39th HOD District in 1995, losing to then-former Del. Vivian Watts-D.
I completely agree. Tim Hugo is conservative enough to win a primary while having enough crossover appeal to win a general election.
Although Sean Connaughton would be a relatively strong candidate, he has a dedicated following of detractors within PWC GOP circles and has most likely made a committment to Dubya to stay through the remainder of the term.
Tim Hugo can and will stick to transportation, taxes, education and foreign policy which is the best you can ask for in a district that is very wealthy by national standards, but has a slight Dem lean.
Northern VA in general is not necessarily getting more liberal, but rather more discerning — meaning that you can’t win up there with old conservative one-liners. Call it Dick Black syndrome. But someone with a command of the more complex issues facing suburban Virginia can win with an R beside their name in VA-11. Tim Hugo is the best shot we have.
As things sit now, only Connaughton has the star power, name recognition across the district, and demonstrated fund-raising ability from the Northern Virginia business community to make a go of it from the R side against either Byrne or Connolly. Even the latter will be crimped if Connolly runs, because a lot of big donors will be reluctant to antagonize Connolly, but that will be a problem for any R running against GC. But there’s virtually no indication that Connaughton’s keen to do it. A national publication recently quoted him as saying he had been approached by a number of Republicans in the district, that he’s evaluating the situation, but that he had made no commitments. In the absence of Connaughton dropping what he’s doing (and it looks like he’s having a heckuva a great time doing it) and going back into the political wars, Hugo is not an irrational fallback. It would be good for the cause if Tom Davis would make his intentions officially clear soon. A lot of this is pure speculation at this point, but it will take a tremendous effort to hold the seat if TD does not run. People like Connaughton who respect Davis won’t give this serious consideration unless they know with certainty that Davis doesn’t want it.
[...] ring… as has Del. Tim Hugo, another GOP rising star that I think would be a great candidate (see my post from two years ago). Now, I like Keith Fimian and I think he did a good job as a first-time candidate in 2008 when the [...]