Too Conservative

In the event of Tom Davis deciding not to run for re-election, it’s time to assess our serious candidates for office here in the 11th district.

Mike May (Occoquan Supervisor)– Mike May has the advantage of being a currently elected official with a built-in base of support to draw on, though it has only been a year since he’s taken office. The disadvantage is that his support is in Prince William County, and a Republican candidate must be able to compete within Fairfax County which is significantly more Democratic. Another question mark is his ability to fundraise. According to VPAP, May raised only $18K for his special election and only $45K for his general. Granted, he was running unopposed in November, but neither return speaks highly of his ability to raise the necessary millions needed to combat against either Byrne or Connelly in an expensive media market. While May would be a credible candidate, his ability to compete is uncertain.

Steve Hunt (Former At-Large Fairfax School Board Member)– Hunt has won three times for election for his At-Large Fairfax County seat and lost twice, including once for re-election. It is a testament to how out of options we are that we are considering Hunt to be a viable candidate. Nonetheless, here we are. His military experience is certainly a plus, especially against either Byrne or Connelly, as is his county-wide name ID. However, any discussion of Hunt’s viability will focus around the fact that he lost as an incumbent.

Jay O’Brien (Former State Senator)– O’Brien’s name was widely mentioned for the seat before his loss to George Barker in 2007. Again, as with Hunt, the fact that we are considering someone who lost re-election is a sign of how much in trouble we are. So what does Jay O’Brien bring to the table? For starters, his 15 years of public service as a Delegate and Senator, as well as the fact that he was able to raise close to a million dollars in 2007 (though a significant portion of that was from various Republican Party groups). He has a higher name ID than most of the other names on this list, and he represented part of Fairfax County. The narrowness with which he lost can also be blamed, partly, on the political environment which was notably bad for Republicans, especially incumbents. However, the fact still remains that he lost. O’Brien has also cultivated a reputation of not being an active or particularly good campaigner. Given the investment that an uphill climb for Congress will be, O’Brien may not be a good bet.

Sean Connaughton (U.S. Maritime Administrator, ‘05 Lt. Governor candidate)– I hesitate to consider Connaughton to be a “serious” candidate for the 11th, due to the fact that Connaughton doesn’t live inside of the district and he has an opportunity to run for Lt. Governor again in 2009, which wouldn’t require him to step down from his current post prematurely. Connaughton’s candidacy seems to be bounced around a lot by those within the conservative movement that like him and supported him in 2005, but that interest doesn’t seem to be reciprocated by Connaughton. Until I hear something anything from Connaughton either way, I have trouble evaluating his candidacy. As mentioned above, running in the 11th will require a great investment for the Republican candidate, and if Connaughton has his eye on more than one ball he might not be the candidate we need.

Pat Herrity (Springfield Supervisor)– Herrity brings the advantage of being a current office-holder and someone who has proven they can win in Fairfax County in a year like 2007, albeit due mostly to his father’s name. On the other hand, his father’s name opens doors to the Republican establishment in Northern Virginia who might be more likely to give a check to a Herrity than someone they don’t know. In addition, he has strong ties to the local business community. The biggest downside, and this is a personal principle of mine that might not be shared by others, is that he was first elected to his seat just last November. Serving for a year then running for a higher seat, especially in your first term, is turn-off to me. It also calls attention to his relative lack of experience. It wouldn’t prevent me from supporting his candidacy, nor would it prevent Herrity from being a good Congressman, but myself and others may prefer that he fulfill more of his commitment to the voters in the Springfield District before he considers the next rung up.

Keith Fimian (Businessman)– The CEO and Founder of U.S. Inspect, a home inspection company, Fimian is the only non-elected official or former elected official being considered, due mostly to Fimian’s early announcement and efforts to build his name among those in the party in Northern Virginia. Fimian claims that he receeved the “okay” to run from Tom Davis, and spent time in 2007 travelling around to the various local campaigns to help out. The single greatest advantage that Fimian brings is money: $400K as of the 3rd quarter last year (the most recent reports haven’t been made available yet). For a first-time campaigner in a seat where the incumbent hasn’t made his plans known yet, that is a very respectable amount of money. Fimian’s business ties also carries the promise of more, should Davis retire and Fimian become the nominee. While he lacks political history, he has ample business experience, building his company from the ground up. In a cycle where economy will be a major issue, Fimian’s business experience would contrast well with Leslie Byrne, who like her idol Hillary Clinton, has the problem that “American can’t afford all of [her] ideas” of how to spend your money.

Tom Davis has promised a decision within two weeks for his re-election. Most of the signs are pointing towards his retirement. If that is the case, then Northern Virginia Republicans need to quickly coalesce around a candidate. The first step is to know who is not interested. To that end, I appreciate Tim Hugo for taking his name out of consideration early, and I encourage anybody I named on this list to follow suit if they’re not serious about running for the seat. Especially if nominee is May or Fimian, name ID will be an issue, but not one that can’t be overcome. However, the best way to overcome it is to choose a candidate early and have the establishment and grassroots—which includes local bloggers—spend time building up his credentials within the district.

In fact, in my opinion, a bigger obstacle to overcome is money. Connaughton raised $1.8 million in his race for the nomination for Lt. Governor in 2005. Keith Fimian has already shown his fundraising prowess, and has the ability to self-fund. Everybody else is questionable at best. While anyone who becomes the nominee is guaranteed to find themselves some money, and while Tom Davis would likely steer his connections towards the nominee, the candidate has to be able to do a significant among of legwork himself. Particularly in this upcoming cycle, with the NRCC cash-strapped, the candidate must be able to fundraise for himself, period. Volunteers and supporters can spend energy getting a candidate’s name known. Its a lot tougher to gain money.

Many commentators and various blogs have spoken highly of Keith Fimian. I’d like to add my name to the list. With Connaughton likely to pass on the race (and not even living in the district), Fimian alone brings what is needed most to compete—money—while his primary opponents have only a slightly higher name ID than he does. I would also like to clarify that the case for Fimian’s candidacy is not just by default. Businessmen are frequently great Congressional candidates, and that executive and financial experience is oftentimes more valuable than political experience.

Moreover, if Davis does indeed retire within the next two weeks, we need to begin now to get the next Republican nominee elected, and that begins with getting his name out there and making his support known. Before we can start, we need to know who is in and who is out. So far, Keith Fimian is the only one who has made his intentions known.

You are more than welcome to critique my analysis or offer your own of the candidates mentioned above, or to add more names to the list.

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Jan 21st by VA Blogger