VA-05: Goode CRUSHING Perriello by 34 points

By VA Blogger

Survey USA, conducted 8/10-12:

Virgil Goode (R): 64%
Tom Perriello (D): 30%

VA-05 is a perfect example of where liberal activism meets reality. Democrats are high on Perriello’s chances for two reasons: 1) Perriello has done an admittedly great job fundraising, and 2) Democrats hate Virgil Goode. Unfortunately for Dems, that doesn’t actually make Virgil Goode vulnerable. Nor do multiple articles on various blogs proclaiming this to be an “emerging race”, which then link to each other creating the impression of a buzz, which some foolishly equate with in-district strength. Here’s a quick lesson for sites like Raising Kaine, Swing State Project, and the organizations like the DCCC: Wishing doesn’t make it so.


Comments

  • Dan says:

    What you say about the echo chamber that is the moronosphere, both left and right, is true. I imagine that a very small percentage of voters read political blogs. It is also unlikely that the 5th CD will flip this year.

    Having said that, I don’t believe the DCCC is prone to silly wishful thinking. In a year like this where the Republicans could easily lose a couple dozen seats or more there will inevitably be surprises. Seats you thought the Republicans would surely lose will be held and others you were sure they would hold will flip. So using some of the Democratic Party’s advantage in resources in places that seem unlikely this year may pay dividends. It’s just that, without a crystal ball, it’s hard to target precisely. So you shotgun it a bit. It’s a good thing to have more money. Republicans understand this as they have historically held that advantage.

    In Virginia I imagine the 11th will surely flip. That will probably be the only change in the delegation.

  • RichmondDem says:

    Its going to get closer as fall comes. This race is the best shot the Dems have at picking up a Congressional seat in RoVA since they actually chose a viable candidate here.

  • Brian says:

    Goode is up big, huh? Next thing you know gambling will be going on at Rick’s.

  • NoVA Scout says:

    Goode is a profound embarrassment to the Republican Party and typifies some of the stuff that wandered into the GOP over the years from the Democrats in the South. I can’t tell whether his staying power is due to the absence of credible R or D opponents or superbly attentive constituent services or both. But I’m surprised the GOP (at some level – district, state or national) hasn’t shooed him away as just too silly for grown-up respectability. You just worry that folks might associate him with Republicans. I guess when every seat counts, safe seats are worth enduring some foolishness.

  • RichmondDem says:

    NoVA-

    Goode is very good at getting pork for his district, and does constituent services extremely well. That, and hes only had to run against Al Weed thus far.

    Really if you’re an incumbent House member favorable re-districting, good constituent services/pork is 70% of the re-election battle.

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