McCain 54%, Obama 44%

By VA Blogger

If we’re being honest for a second, I think the USA Today/Gallup poll will be an outlier, like the poll a few months back that showed Obama with a 15 point lead. However, there’s absolutely no doubt that the GOP Convention—and McCain’s pick of Palin—did exactly what they needed to do in shaking up the race from the inevitable loss John McCain was facing. Consider:

McCain has narrowed Obama’s wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate’s top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he’s favored by 3.

Combined with McCain’s dominance of Obama in the polls on matters of national security and Iraq and you have a country that likes Barack Obama but trusts John McCain.

Now, a lot can and will happen in 60 days. McCain needs to do well at the debates, we need to hope another shoe doesn’t drop about Palin that causes another week of bad coverage, and our vaunted GOTV effort needs to be on par despite a slightly depressed base. From everything I’ve seen of McCain’s campaign locally, that shouldn’t be a problem. And finally, McCain needs to pick up Michigan or Pennsylvania. I just don’t see him winning the election without it.

Still, McCain has accomplished what no other Republican running for President could after the public’s disdain for the Bush years. With less than sixty days left, we have more than just hope for victory; we have a fighting chance. Let’s make it happen.


Comments

  • RichmondDem says:

    I’m guessing they over-sampled Republicans, since Rasmussen shows the race tied.

  • RichmondDem says:

    The new CNN poll just released (48-48) sounds more like it.

  • anon says:

    Interesting for sure, but I’m not sure any of these polls matter until after the debates.

    The Gipper was down before the debates but… well you know the rest.

  • Not Dick Saslaw says:

    McCain-Palin in Fairfax on Wednesday.

  • Jose Kinusee says:

    The USA Today/Gallup looks, sounds and smells like a ‘push-poll’.

    Sample question: “In your opinion, recognizing that Barak Hussein Obama who studied the Koran in Indonesia as a child and couldn’t be promoted a grade until he was fluent in each verse, would you prefer a Muslim or McCain”.

    This maybe how they got a 15 point spread.

  • RichmondDem says:

    I want cross-tabs for that poll. If they won’t release them it’s a B.S. poll because Rasmussen says it’s tied and Gallup has a +5 McCain lead–comfortable, but about half what Obama’s lead was at the height of his bounce.

  • Jose Kinusee says:

    Oops, that should be a 10 point spread–these damn new bi-focals.

    I wouldn’t want Stoner to dismiss my post.

  • RichmondDem says:

    Survey USA Virginia Poll taken over the weekend:

    McCain 49
    Obama 47

    Before the convention it was 48/48. Now, does anybody believe there is any possible way McCain could be up +10 while having a statistical tie in Virginia?

  • Loudoun lady says:

    RichmondDem, if it makes you feel better to argue the polls, knock yourself out. I don’t believe the polls and I never have, I always operate as if my candidate is 10 points behind and given that your looks like he might actually be, perhaps you should do the same.

    Anything can happen, the debates start in 2 weeks and there will plenty of ups and downs to discuss. Polls are but a snap shot and right now McCain in up, and I plan to help him keep it that way.

  • RichmondDem says:

    LL I’m a big believer in acting like your candidate is ten points down, too, you’re preaching to the converted here. It just seems like the various polls vary from each other a hell of a lot more than in 2004. It’s weird, that’s all.

  • Former LCRC Member says:

    Polling is getting more and more difficult because of caller ID, cell phones, and what now are the twin problems of honesty in voting for an African-American or a woman.

    I think what we can take from all the polls released recently is McCain and Obama are essentially tied at this point, and surprisingly the Republican convention appears to have been more persuasive than the Democrat convention, which I will be the first to admit was well-done.

  • RichmondDem says:

    I agree LCRC. Obama has a strong ground game too which will get underestimated, as it did in the primaries. Remember when Hillary was supposed to win Indiana by +7 and Obama only win North Carolina by single digits, and how it turned out to be Obama +21 in North Carolina and Hillary just barely eeking out a win in Indiana? That was the Obama ground game in action. It’s “Community Organizing”, if you will, since you guys seem to like that phrase now. ;)

  • just a thought says:

    These are national polls, they don’t do a thing to change the electorial college map, in the end that’s all that matters. LCRC is correct, this race is tied and one or two states will decide this election. But what else is new?

  • Make it happen, Cap’n!!!

  • “I don’t believe the polls and I never have…”

    Good to know, since you posted poll results in the other thread.

    I guess the contrarian in me likes consistency. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge.

  • VA Blogger says:

    JK–I don’t think you would recognize a push poll if it came up, introduced itself, and wore a name-tag.

    RD: USA Today/Gallup is a widely respected poll and their numbers, including voter breakouts, are reported far and wide. You can dismiss it as BS if you like, but I doubt you’ll find many to join your cause.

  • Jose Kinusee says:

    VB,

    You kidding, right? Must I explain to you that the point of post #5 was sarcasm? Come on, say it isn’t so!! Do me a favor and re-read it. Thank you.

    (Most of the paragraph above was moderated by the writer. It originally contained some explitives and some denigration of the blogger who dissed me. It was edited in the spirit of kindness and utmost regard to all social conservatives who read this blog and support Ms. Moose and McCain.)

  • jacob says:

    Richmond Dem,
    One poll used likely voters, the other used registered voters. While one group is a proper super-set of the other the to groups are different.

    This is the McCain bounce. With two months to go today’s numbers will be soon forgotten.

  • jacob says:

    The real question is will the Republican’s be able to replicate the Bush ground game of 2004? They will need it because Obama will have an excellent organization come election day.

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