Latest Poll Still Shows McDonnell Ahead

By VA Blogger

SurveyUSA, on behalf of WDBJ and WJLA, conducted polls on the Democratic Primary and General Election match-ups. McAuliffe is leading the primary, though there are still plenty
of undecideds. For a reason I haven’t figured out yet, robo-polls like SUSA always generate less undecided voters than live-caller polls like Research 2000, which showed Moran in the lead earlier this month.

However, the General Election match-ups still give good news for McDonnell (keep in mind, different pollsters have different methodologies, so it’s useless to compare or “trend” these numbers with previous polls):

McDonnell: 44%
Deeds: 39%

McDonnell: 46%
McAuliffe: 39%

McDonnell: 46%
Moran: 34%

Like before, McDonnell’s strength here is among Independents, where he leads Deeds by 16 points, McAuliffe by 17, and Moran by 20.

Unlike Rasmussen or R2K, SurveyUSA provides regional breaks (though it doesn’t explain their boundaries). In the primary, McAuliffe barely leads Deeds in Shenandoah, Moran dominates the field in “Northeast VA” (likely NoVa plus some outlying counties), McAuliffe is even more dominating in “Southeast” (Hampton Roads/Tidewater), and McAuliffe and Moran are neck-and-neck in Central. If accurate, then McAuliffe’s advertising in Hampton Roads is paying off.

In the general, McDonnell leads all comers in Shenandoah (though Deeds keeps him to single-digits), but McDonnell edges both Deeds and McAuliffe in Northeast (by four points and two points, respectively). McDonnell also leads Moran and Deeds by double-digits in Southeast, but is tied with McAuliffe there (I would expect this to change in McDonnell’s favor, however). And McDonnell leads Moran and McAuliffe, but is narrowly edged by Deeds, in “Central”, which I’m guessing goes out further West than you’d typically imagine.


  • I’ll make sure that Bob McDonnell loses the vote of most gun owners in Virginia.

    Unless he’s a man and is willing to come clean and publicly apologize for his past support of gun control…..

  • VA Blogger says:

    According to the results of this poll, Terry McAuliffe is the most likely nominee for Democrats.

    Brian Gentry, will you kindly explain why you support Terry McAuliffe for Governor?

  • Alter of Freedom says:

    Deeds could be gaining so “mo” folks. Alot of people are talking about him, including indpedents and even some Republicans. Could the Dems actually wise up and play it smart and back Deeds?

  • RichmondDem says:

    General election polls don’t mean anything until there is a nominee. You get a boost of about +5-7 just for being officially nominated.

    And McAuliffe will not be the nominee. He is going to flame out before he gets nominated (just like his hero Hillary did).

  • Alter of Freedom says:

    Flaming out would be great news for the GOP. T-mac has the ability to re-invent himself much like Warner and Kaine and even Obama. Forget any value in records or votes or the past but make it all about “personality”. Moran cannot do this. Moran is a liberal through and through and has little chabnce of convincing Virginia he is anything else. Moran loses the middle hands down.

  • Lovettsville Lady says:

    Since Moran has made gay marriage the centerpiece of his campaign, I am hoping that he will win the nomination. He’s traveling the state supporting an amendment to overturn our amendment making marriage between a man and a woman. Sounds like a desperate man. Since a large majority of Virginians supported the marriage amendment, Moran’s stand will not play well in the general election. Too bad that McAuliffe’s money will buy this nomination for him. Will it also buy him the election? It may well. Sad.

  • VA Blogger,

    I don’t support Terry.

    But could you please explain why you support gun control? Is that the new trend in the Republican Party?

  • VA Blogger says:

    Brian, all due respect, but if you decide to be opposed to Bob McDonnell at all costs, that means you are helping the Democratic nominee, which is most likely Terry McAuliffe. Why do you believe your issue—gun ownership—will be better served under a McAuliffe administration? Why do you wish to see McAuliffe become Governor?

  • […] reaction to this poll from Too Conservative who lauds McDonnell’s lead and says his strength is among independents, and New Dominion, who […]

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