Latest Poll Still Shows McDonnell Ahead
SurveyUSA, on behalf of WDBJ and WJLA, conducted polls on the Democratic Primary and General Election match-ups. McAuliffe is leading the primary, though there are still plenty
of undecideds. For a reason I haven’t figured out yet, robo-polls like SUSA always generate less undecided voters than live-caller polls like Research 2000, which showed Moran in the lead earlier this month.
However, the General Election match-ups still give good news for McDonnell (keep in mind, different pollsters have different methodologies, so it’s useless to compare or “trend” these numbers with previous polls):
Like before, McDonnell’s strength here is among Independents, where he leads Deeds by 16 points, McAuliffe by 17, and Moran by 20.
Unlike Rasmussen or R2K, SurveyUSA provides regional breaks (though it doesn’t explain their boundaries). In the primary, McAuliffe barely leads Deeds in Shenandoah, Moran dominates the field in “Northeast VA” (likely NoVa plus some outlying counties), McAuliffe is even more dominating in “Southeast” (Hampton Roads/Tidewater), and McAuliffe and Moran are neck-and-neck in Central. If accurate, then McAuliffe’s advertising in Hampton Roads is paying off.
In the general, McDonnell leads all comers in Shenandoah (though Deeds keeps him to single-digits), but McDonnell edges both Deeds and McAuliffe in Northeast (by four points and two points, respectively). McDonnell also leads Moran and Deeds by double-digits in Southeast, but is tied with McAuliffe there (I would expect this to change in McDonnell’s favor, however). And McDonnell leads Moran and McAuliffe, but is narrowly edged by Deeds, in “Central”, which I’m guessing goes out further West than you’d typically imagine.