Too Conservative

The DGA put out a poll a few days ago showcasing the Deeds primary bounce and following up on Rasmussen’s results. In fact, they even went ahead and like Rasmussen conducted the poll the day after the primary (plus the next three days). The Democratic internal poll shows Deeds leading (which is the only reason we’re reading about it) but not by much: 42%-38%. This is a higher amount of undecideds than we’ve seen in the past, and represents a virtual toss-up. More on this below.

The first poll taken a decent interval after the primary is Research 2000 for Daily Kos:

McDonnell: 45% (46%)
Deeds: 44% (34%)

McDonnell: 55/36
Deeds: 47/35

Since this poll was conducted 1) a week after the primary, 2) with trendlines from previous polls, and 3) by an independent pollster (albeit with a highly partisan client), and 4) with released crosstabs, there’s a lot more we can glean from this poll. I discuss both below the fold.

First, what strikes me most about the DGA internal is what information they didn’t include in their memo. They mention Deeds’ lead in SW VA, and their respective image scores there and in Northern Virginia, but they don’t mention the head-to-head matchup in NoVa. Could they be showing McDonnell leading there?

The same exact scenario occurs with Independent voters, where they note that Deeds has higher favorables among Independents but don’t give us the head-to-heads. Given that McDonnell has lead Independents in every poll conducted thus far (including the post-primary Rasmussen poll where he was trailing), it wouldn’t be any surprise to see McDonnell leading there as well.

See more reactions to this poll at: Right-wing Liberal, the Shad Plank

The R2K poll shows no movement by McDonnell, in either the ballot test or image score, but Deeds rockets up 10 points on the head-to-head and nets 10 points in favorability. This same pattern trickles down through the crosstabs:

Among Democrats, McDonnell goes from 16% to 13%; Deeds jumps from 59% to 74%.

Among Independents, McDonnell goes from 48% to 47%; Deeds jumps from 31% to 44%.

Among Black voters, McDonnell goes from 6% to 5%; Deeds goes from 56% to 71%.

In their version of Nova, McDonnell goes from 23% to 22%; Deeds jumps from 52% to 64%.

Despite being conducted a week out, this is still the residue of his primary bounce, and there’s no guarantee it’ll stick through the summer. However, we have to assume now that this race is the dead-heat this poll shows. Even then, there are a few bright points.

Despite what Democrats were crowing about in the two polls taken the day after the primary, Republicans are firmly united behind McDonnell. McDonnell leads among Republicans 84%-7%, with 9% undecided. Deeds leads among Democrats 74%-13%, with 13% undecided. McDonnell’s image is 81/10 among Republicans; Deeds is 72/12 among Democrats. Each candidate has a little bit of room to grow within their own party, but they’re both pretty tapped out.

McDonnell, as always, leads among Independents, though his lead was cut to just three points this time. However, McDonnell carries a +18 image with Independents, 53/35. Deeds only carries a +12, at 46/36.

McDonnell leads among voters over the age of 45; Deeds leads younger voters, particularly those 18-29. While the demographics have each representing exactly half of the voting population, Deeds will need to invest a lot more into turnout, getting unreliable voters out to the polls. As evidenced in the four elections in Northern Virginia since November, that’s a tall order.

Research 2000 posits a 39/32 Democrat-to-Republican ratio, which has remained consistent for all of their 2009 polling. However, while its tough to argue whether this is accurate or not (since we won’t know until Election Day), no one can argue that its not generous towards Democrats. The voting population in Virginia certainly won’t be more Democratic than that, and there’s a healthy possibility it will be less. Even so, McDonnell leads.

Finally, I spent 20 paragraphs arguing that image scores were important, and specifically making the point that its much harder to define, negatively, a popular figure than it is an unknown figure. A majority of Virginians like McDonnell, with favorable ratings consistently in the mid-50s and rivaling Barack Obama. And only 9% of voters have no opinion of McDonnell.

Democratic blogs keep talking about how once they make McDonnell’s position on various social issues and ancient news known to the electorate, McDonnell’s image will drop. Maybe, but I don’t think that’s a winning strategy for them. McDonnell’s campaign will clearly be about jobs and the economy. So far, Deeds hasn’t followed suit (even going as far as still omitting the issue on his website). If McDonnell is talking about what voters care about and Democrats are talking about social issues, we could find ourselves in a bizzaro inverse of 2005.

We start the election as a toss-up, which means we need to work hard to get Bob McDonnell elected. But with the advantages McDonnell has, we have reason to feel good going into the Fall.

See more reactions to this poll at: Right-wing Liberal, Tertium Quids, Write Side

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Jun 19th by VA Blogger