McDonnell, Ticket DOMINATES New SurveyUSA Poll

By VA Blogger

SurveyUSA released their first post-primary poll, showing the entire GOP ticket walloping the Dems:

(6/5-7 results in parenthesis)


Bob McDonnell: 55% (47%)

Creigh Deeds: 40% (43%)


Bill Bolling: 54%

Jody Wagner: 42%


Ken Cuccinelli: 53%

Steve Shannon: 42%


In a word: wow. This is the first poll that shows McDonnell not only at 50%, but well over it. Deeds’ numbers show no indication of a primary bounce, as he’s now where he was before he won in early June. In fact, Deeds underperforms the rest of his ticket. Looking at the crosstabs, McDonnell is leading among women, is above 50% in all regions, and is carrying Independents by a crushing 60%-35% margin.


Now, most Democrats are going to try to dismiss the poll out of hand, so I took it a step further. The party affiliation breaks in this latest SurveyUSA poll are 38% R, 32% D. That is admittedly out of sync with other polls. The latest PPP release (showing McDonnell +6) was 33% R, 34% D. The latest Research 2000 (showing McDonnell +1) was 32% R, 39% D. And even the previous SurveyUSA poll was 34% R, 36% D. So what does that mean for McDonnell?


It turns out, not much. I recalculated the numbers using each of those previous party breaks (and then the average of all four, including this latest poll) and here’s what I found:


June SurveyUSA (34R/36D): McDonnell leads 53%/42%

PPP (33R/34D): McDonnell leads 53%/43%

Research 2000 (32R/39D): McDonnell leads 50%/46%

Average (34R/35D): McDonnell leads 52%/43%


Even in the most generous sample to Democrats, a seven-point party advantage, McDonnell not only leads, he breaks 50%. If the turnout is just about even between both parties, like the most recent PPP poll showed, McDonnell leads by double-digits. And given the 2009 elections in Virginia thus far and the lack of energy on the Democratic side, I would bet on that being more accurate than Obama-esque numbers from last November.


All in all, this poll is as good for Bob McDonnell as it is bad for Creigh Deeds. He was believed to be the strongest candidate during the primary because of his broad appeal and his lack of baggage, but with his lack of baggage comes lack of excitement and ideas. He refuses to put forward a transportation plan while trying to be cute by dodging any question about taxes, and many blogs are picking up on his “me too!” approach, following McDonnell at every turn. It’s developing into a pattern, one that the blogs, the media, and even former Governor Doug Wilder is picking up on. Said Wilder, when asked about Deeds:


“Tell me what the man has done? I haven’t heard it.”



  • Cato, I’m surprise that the wacky left hasn’t denounced the use of fluorocarbons in the making of those signs.

  • I’m certainly glad the recession is over!! It’s not a day too soon, because the depression starts later this month!!
    Last one with work to do please turn out the lights.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

    Alter –
    “I never said that Bush was “not to blame”.” Perhaps not, although you certainly never acknowledged that he WAS TO BLAME, either. Was that a sin of omission, Alter?
    “There is plenty of “blame” [for 9/11] to go around. The problem is no one is stepping up to take any responsibility for it.” Then why not leave it the f*ck alone, Alter? Why bring it up at all?
    “Cuts to Military Police in the late 90’s also contributed to the necessity for such companies as Triple Canopy, Dyncorp, Armour Security and Blackwater to be contracted for force protection roles.” Wrong. It was the Bush administration’s goal of outsourcing as much of our military as possible (while enriching his friends at Halliburton, et al.) and the belief that hiring these subcontacted scum was more cost-effective then using US military personnel for security.
    “…the number of folks not even filing unemployment claims anymore is escalating.” What on earth does that even mean? “People always seem to forget about those folks who are still unemployed but whose unemployment has run out, even after the extension.” I don’t agree with that: Congress will act this week to extend unemployment benefits.
    “But I am sure they are happy with your “only thing that matters is how the economy is in November 2010″ viewpoint. I am sure that’s comforting.” Hey, is this a political blog, or not?

  • I’ll take a job EB.

  • […] much-hyped PPP poll was released a few minutes ago, in response to the much-discussed SurveyUSA poll from last […]

  • Alter of Freedom says:

    IBOB- I think you need some real objective lense cleaning on how the budget was balanced back in the mid-90’s….on the backs of military defense cuts and troop level reductions thats how. Exactl;y how many ARMY divisions were reduced by Clinton and of course a GOP-controlled Congress? How much was the training budget reduced? How often were reserve units actually leaving their home base for training at say Ft. Pickett for example? Not much due to defense cuts. Fact is as I stated we were ill-prepared to respond as a result of many factors relating to cutting military and defense spending. Curious…are our troops levels today in 2009 close to levels they were say in 1992/3? I mean we are fighting two wars are we not? If those levels are not equal, what is your explaination IBOB for the disparity? Was the economy just so great that people up and left the military or were they in fact “downsized”? Many of us were forced out friend and it was not until after 9/11 that some of those downsized could re-enlist and rejoin the military. It was not “Bush’s goal” to outsource, it was a matter of neccesity. The force had zero ability to respond in the manner in which his fathers military force had in 1990 in Operation Desert Shield/Storm of which I was a part. Please actually read something that is fact based and put down that corporate propaganda crap from the likes of people like Jeremey Scahill(sp) and his rants about civilian contractors and Blackwater. People on the ground know better; even Clinton and Obama who were protected by them.

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