A week ago, Bob Holsworth wrote that, whether we’re talking about Thesisgate or talking about transportation plans, the race is “essentially a referendum on McDonnell. If it comes down to this in November, McDonnell will win.”
Holsworth argues that the Deeds campaign’s challenge is to explain why they should vote for their guy, and not just against Bob. I expressed a similar sentiment two weeks ago when looking at Creigh Deeds’ poll ceiling (though the Post has upped it, he has still yet to break, or reach, 48%).
Evidently, the Deeds campaign and the DPV either doesn’t read Virginia Tomorrow or doesn’t take their advice seriously, because anti-McDonnell signs have started popping up around Fairfax.
There’s only three problems:
1) Nowhere on the sign do you see Creigh Deeds’ name. If his campaign’s problem is a lack of enthusiasm and a dearth of specifics, particularly on transportation and taxes, how does putting Bob McDonnell’s name everywhere help that?
Along the same line, Deeds signs (whether full ticket or otherwise) are vastly outnumbered here and in other parts of the state. Negative signs are fine, but they typically come after you achieve full coverage with your own signs. I wonder how many people who see these signs even know what its in reference to?
2) According to the Washington Post, the central claim of the sign isn’t true:
But to argue that laying out more money from the general fund on roads would automatically mean shortchanging schools is perhaps a bit of a stretch. This is especially true if, as McDonnell hopes, he could expand the budget pie enough to fatten all the slices.
3) Finally, these signs don’t have a Fairfax County permit on them, making putting them up in public in the County illegal. Oops!
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Sep 20th by VA Blogger
A permit has to be affixed to the signs? Are you sure that it’s not just the fact that a permit has to be approved for putting up the signs? I’d be careful calling it illegal. The website that you link makes no mention of having a “permit on [the signs]“, just that a permit must be sought.
Regarding the general fund, McDonnell proffers nothing on the disparity between the general fund and specific revenues [i.e. gas tax for transportation]. The reason why we have an issue with McDonnell’s proposal is that he’s expecting to expand the normal budget beyond normal budget capacities while we’re in the middle of making budget cuts. That having been said, it would be most likely that he’d be getting money from cuts.
Where is that sign posted? It could very well be on public property, especially since the Deeds campaign has not had signs like that made.
Individuals can and do get signs of their own and post them on their property.
In Fairfax County the permit number “shall be affixed in the lower right hand corner of each sign.”
These signs are some of the worst planned signs I’ve ever seen. My wife and I saw a bunch of them on the road, and because of the dark blue with McDonnell’s name in dark red, you can’t see the dark red at all. All you see is a sign that says “CUTTING OUR SCHOOLS” and you have no idea what it says.
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Pretty pathetic.
Thank you for spelling out. If the signs do not have the permit numbers affixed to them, then that’s clearly an unnecessary abrogation of procedure. I imagine it was a product of clerical error and not intentional. All the same, you can never be too careful in a campaign.
I just wish McDonnell would get some signs up in Loudoun. I’ve seen very few.
So what are the penalties for breaking this law? And isn’t it funny that the person in whose name the law is being broken wants to become the chief law enforcement officer for the Commonwealth?
Also the message itself is unclear…
Are they saying McDonnell is a habitual truant?
Are they saying McDonnel is out there with a big pair of scissors at school buildings, trying to cut them?
Not John, the only places I’ve seen those signs are on public property, and I’ve seen them in several different places in Fairfax.
Yes, sounds like Bob McDonnell has been cutting schools and children with a big giant pair of scissors. He must be stopped. For the sake of the children, he must be stopped!
You know, I realize now that I was wrong about McAuliffe (sp?). I was hoping that the Dems would nominate him on the theory that he was kind of a Leslie Byrne type who would overcome the weaknesses of the Republican ticket (as Byrne did in 2005 in the LG race) by galvanizing not just core right wingers, but Republicans and independents in a way that would let us get through with with the General Assembly re-tread, not very imaginative types that Republicans are inclined to put up in Virginia. I thought Deeds would be a very strong candidate because he is by inclination fairly conservative, that he would counter-balance R strength in the western parts of the Commonwealth, and that he would run well against McDonnell in Northern Virginia.
But two things have happened. First, the Republicans have run a very well crafted campaign that casts McDonnell as a sort of Northern Virginia moderate. This campaign has virtually made invisible not only McDonnell’s past tendencies and associations, but has also apparently made Bolling and Cuccinelli invisible (maybe I’m just not getting out enough, but it seems like both of these two are spending the campaign at Dick Cheney’s Undisclosed Location). Of course, that is what Bolling did last time and it worked (just barely). Second (and I really missed this) Deeds just isn’t ringing anyone’s chimes in Democratic ranks in Northern Virginia. With McDonnell tenaciously holding on to his new centrist identity, and Deeds not finding a way to connect with the center-liberal crowd up here, the ironic thing is that McDonnell can pull this off (in fact the whole R slate can pull this off) by essentially being perceived as no more conservative than Deeds. This with a slate that top to bottom is at least as conservative as what we used in 2005.
In retrospect, the Dems probably would have done better with a more overtly liberal and more high-profile candidate. And it shows we can win even with fairly uninteresting candidates if they are mediagenic and are careful to hide some of their past ideological lapses.
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I heard a very well done Deeds radio ad this AM. It was all about how wrong Bobby Mac is for Virginia and it handily refuted his claim that he’s “evolved” since he wrote his thesis. The ad is a laundry list of why Bobby Mac should not be our next Governor.
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As much as some of you wish this election were a referendum on President Obama, it is not. Our governor as almost zero influence on or responsibility for what goes on in Washington. This election is about VA and how to move us forward. Deed’s is making a strong argument that electing Bobby Mac is a step backwards for the Commonwealth.
Novascout, The McAuliffe theory may be correct, but I don’t think KC has been invisible. If you are on his email list or signed up for his facebook page, look at his itinerary, he is everywhere. I think the Gov is far overshadowing the Lt Gov and AG race, much more so than past years because of the Obama referendum. Bob has been the lightening rod in this race and I think people were expecting KC to be the lightening rod, but I chalk this up to thesis-gate. The extremist label the Deeds campaign is trying to stick on Bob isn’t sticking, partly because Deeds is ineffective and has a poor message, and partly because Bob is a real leader and smacked Deeds down in the debate. Look at the washpo article over the weekend on business leaders and their lack of confidence in Deeds, that speaks volumes.
As for Bolling, I’m sure he’s just as busy, I just haven’t been following his campaign as closely.
NoVA Scout, I always enjoy reading your comments. You have such a way with words.
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“careful to hide some of their past ideological lapses”.
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What a delicate way to put it. And such an accurate description of the current campaign.
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The problem for the Democrats is not that they nominated the wrong candidate. The problem is that his campaign sat on their hands for two months while McDonnell sold his new found “moderateness” to the public without pointing out the ample evidence to the contrary.
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If Deeds loses by 360 votes again it will be because he let stand unchallenged for too long the ludicrous proposition that McDonnell is a centrist. It may be ridiculous, but once people start believing it getting them to look at his record that shows otherwise is a much tougher job.
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As it is, the race is a tossup. It will be fun to watch.
“As much as some of you wish this election were a referendum on President Obama, it is not.”
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Well, it is and it isn’t. Certainly intense opposition to Obama administration policies is exciting the right-leaning base, which has the effect of changing the projected turnout. Conversely, thesisgate has the effect of exciting the left-leaning base and narrowing the so-called enthusiasm gap. The question now is are the independents more afraid of Obama or are they more afraid that McDonnell is some kind of manchurian candidate who’s going to force women to wear burqas? Fear and greed my friend, fear and greed. Add that to the fact that your guy is kind of dopey and more than a bit unstable and this race is McDonnell’s to lose.
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I’d start sniffing around Deed’s mental health history if I were a McDonnell operative. Based on what we’ve seen of his behavior, I’d wager we’d probably find a history of some sort of anger management therapy or antidepressant use. Tom Eagleton, anyone?
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Cato,
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Re: Tom Eagleton/psychotherapy/antidepressant use –
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Fortunately, I think for us all, it’s not 1972 anymore. Half the populous, it would seem, is on Zoloft. I’d wager that the stigma attached to mental health that derailed Tom Eagleton is no longer applicable.
What do they mean by “Cutting Our Schools”? Cutting them down as in insulting them? Cutting them out by getting Virginia out of the business of education (higher-ed or preK-12)? Cutting as in less money to public schools and a fairer distribution of our tax dollars to other budget areas that have been underfunded by Warner and Kaine?
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Fed -
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“Cutting as in less money to public schools and…[the] distribution of our tax dollars to other budget areas…[like transportation]?”
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Reducing funding for education. Yes, that’s Bobby Mac’s plan.
IBOB – I think Bob’s plan is to improve public education, which does not necessarily mean throwing more and more money at it like Warner and Kaine have. Direct aid to public education is now overfunded.
Read Bob’s plan. He has ideas that make sense, unlike his opponent who wants to carry on the same old tired policies of his predecessors, like expanding pre-K.
Some would cheer if McDonnell actually did cut school funding, but he won’t. Like many, I don’t believe it is the increase in dollars we spend that are going to improve education, but that a completely different topic.
IBOB: The vote is about who will raise taxes and who is better fit to lead economic dev., jobs to VA. Deeds will raise your taxes and will kill jobs with card check. BM is the clear choice.
Yes, if we follow the taliban model and don’t waste money educating women we can save billions from the school budget. And by not allowing women to drive we will dramatically reduce traffic congestion.
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Perhaps this Bob McDonnell DOES have a plan! I had no idea he and Pat Robertson had such keen insights. I’m not sure how government punishing homosexuals will save us money but I’m sure Bob has it all worked out.
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If the guy says he can build billions of dollars worth of roads without raising any money to pay for it, why question it? I guess he is going to use the same “promise them everything and tell them they don’t have to pay for anything” approach to education.
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Who is his campaign manager again? P.T. Barnum?
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Fed, LL, Mikey:
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Bobby Mac says that every child in the state must have an opportunity to be well-educated. His thesis for Regents University states a less lofty goal: “…the state government has a legitimate role to ensure that family members are educated and socialized in order to operate at a minimum level of sufficiency.” His education plan is consistent with his thesis.
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“IBOB – I think Bob’s plan is to improve public education, which does not necessarily mean throwing more and more money at it like Warner and Kaine have. Direct aid to public education is now overfunded.” Fed, throwing more money – 4% to be exact – into the classroom is EXACTLY what Bobby Mac suggests.
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“Like many, I don’t believe it is the increase in dollars we spend that are going to improve education…” But that IS what Bobby Mac thinks, LL.
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“IBOB: The vote is about who will raise taxes and who is better fit to lead economic dev., jobs to VA. Deeds will raise your taxes and will kill jobs with card check. BM is the clear choice.” What has Bobby Mac EVER done to “lead economic dev.” or create VA jobs? I’m not buying what he’s selling!
IBOB, As if we are shocked that you aren’t “buying what McD is selling”. Why don’t you ever promote your candidate? Is it because there is so little to promote?
Two inaliable traits about any democrat. They are generous to a fault —with everybody else’s money.
And the only solution to any problem is to throw more (of our hard-earned) money at it….even on the heels of corruption and lack of results.
I’d like to offer sympathies to “the Operative Word”.
We hardly knew ye.
And I guess this will put a damper on those who said it was to be a power player in the 2009 and 2010 elections in Loudoun.
I guess in the current “all hands on deck” climate inside the DPV, you have to take from some efforts to give it where it counts. The current plan shifting it all to pay for those incoming SEIU clowns means the Operative had to go without.
So sad, really.
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Whether you’ll admit it or not, LL, Bobby Mac calls for increased spending in his education “plan” (where he’ll find the money is left undefined).
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I am not a fervent Deeds supporter; however, I am a vehement foe of Bobby Mac. Therefore, I am perfectly comfortable voting AGAINST Bobby Mac, whom I deem dangerous to the Commonwealth, as opposed to voting FOR Creigh Deeds. It’s somewhat analogous to the strong conservative vote McSame garnered in ‘08. Even though they hate him, the right hates President Obama even more.
IBOB, so your admitting your candidate sucks? Just making sure.
IBOB – You really need to read Bob’s plan more thoroughly. He is not proposing an increase in overall funding. He wants to increase the percentage of funding spent in the classroom, which is only 61% under Kaine. Apparently, the Democrat’s idea of improving education is to beef up school bureacracies!
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LL, you really should brush-up on your reading comprehension skils. Clearly, that’s not at all what I said. Nice try, though.
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“[Bobby Mac] wants to increase the percentage of funding spent in the classroom, which is only 61% under Kaine.” Um, No.
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While Bobby Mac claims that just 61% of K-12 dollars currently go to the classroom, according to the VDOE’s Superintendent Report, 65% went towards instruction in 2007-08. In fact, if you don’t include categories of spending for programs such as the cafeteria and capital outlay, the percentage spent on instruction for regular day school operations is 80%.
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Bobby Mac’s, and your, too, Fed, suggestion that Virginia spends excessive amounts of education funding outside of the classroom is belied by the fact that when support costs are compared to total per-pupil costs, Va.’s expenditures for support services rank 37th in the US, according to the US Census Public Education Finance Report 2007 (July 2009).
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Truly, Bobby Mac’s education plan is a solution without a problem.
IBOB, I’m just following your own logic on the McCain example, he sucked as a candidate but I voted for him and against Obama. Your VA Gov candidate sucks but you will vote for him and against Bob.
That pretty much sums it up, thanks.
AFF, You are an ass, so I expect those gross comments from you.
IBOB – “…65% went towards instruction in 2007-08.”
The “instruction” category often includes a lot administrative positions in reports like these.
I’ll admit you have a talent for cherry-picking statistics to support your argument, but the bottom line is Bob wants to shift more money into the classroom and that’s good news for the children of Virginia.
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LL -
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I said the McSame/conservatives situation was SOMEWHAT analogous, not identical. While McSame’s candidacy did, indeed, suck (Kerry sucked, too, as a candidate in ‘04), Deeds does not suck. You’re welcome.
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Fed -
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“The “instruction” category often includes a lot administrative positions in reports like these.” On what inside knowledge do you base that statement?
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Hey, if citing contrary evidence is “cherry-picking statistics to support your argument”, what is Bobby Mac’s baseless 61% claim? Oh, right: A LIE!
AFF, your comment was deleted.
Good. The visual was a little much for me.
If you have a visual of me AFF, you have bigger problems than your smut being taken off a blog. Get a life.
Smut? Heaven forbid the old white geezer Republicans see smut!
I find it interesting that there’s discussion on the McDonnell education plan since, thanks to current funding formulas, only 20% of Fairfax and Loudoun’s school budgets come from state funds. 40% for Prince William, up to 80% for counties in the hinterlands. Seems to me that if McDonnell wants to cut Fluvanna and Greene and Goochland and Buchanan’s budgets, he can. Let’s see how those counties like having to pick up the tab for their schools like we are forced to.
Leave it to you NJSM to stand up for smut.
NJSM – Changing the funding formula is a great idea, but no politician from either party is going to go there. It would be political suicide. As long as rural Virginia has the votes, northern Virginia and other urban areas will continue to subsidize them.
LL,
Smut? Cool it chicka. I didn’t write anything that Fox’s beloved Bart Simpson didn’t give voice to years ago. To “suck” doesn’t always refer to Larry Craig’s preferred bathroom activities. Try and get your mind out of the gutter, m’kay.
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VAB- I was just playing on LL’s unladylike verb choice, but my comment was off topic and I apologize.
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I think you guys are just bummed Deeds clarified his transportation plan and tax stance. No WP opinion link?
Agreed, but the tipping point is getting close. There are 23 House seats just in Arlington/Alex/Fairfax/Loudoun/PWC, a good-sized batch in Richmond and the same in Tidewater. All of these areas, to a certain extent, lose out on school funding, though not to the extent of Fairfax, Arlington and Loudoun. After the next redistricting, there will be at least 3 more House seats within PWC/Loudoun, possibly four depending on how things are sliced up. A couple more senate seats as well. It’s possible after the next couple of election cycles to have the numbers on the Democratic side, assuming a Democratic takeover of the HoD this cycle or next.
Loudoun Looney, of course I stand up for smut. I’m not big on censorship.
NJSM, I’m not big on censorship either but I am big on civil discussion. When a grown man has to resort to sexual innuendo in the course of debate it is an indication that he has no point and may be living in his mother’s basement.
Bravo, Creigh Deeds, for speaking the truth about fixing VA’s transportation mess!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/22/AR2009092202643.html
LL,
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“Don’t have a cow man”. I was merely funning on your unladylike verb choices. Do try and get your mind out of the gutter- the verb you choose to use repeatedly (which you apparently find really really offensive(?) doesn’t always refer to what gay bashing GOP politicians do anonymously in men’s bathrooms. You advocate for “civil discussions” here but you want to call sexual innuendo smut? Please.
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Besides- your beloved network Fox broke that barrier years ago. I’ve always marveled at the success of Fox in being able to produce shows (Married w Children, The Simpsons ect) which contribute to the coarsening of society while they pander to the “family values” viewers on their news shows (all the while selling ad time to companies pushing products designed to grow their johnsons). Well done Fox.
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VAB,
I can’t say I’m impressed with this blog of late. It’s not your fault traffic has dropped off and the quality of discussions have suffered. Your posts have substance and are often thought provoking, but the balance seems off. (on the site as a whole, since the layout change)
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I tried to apologize for getting off topic and poking fun at LL and um, the comment was “moderated”. Perhaps you didn’t like my included reference to Deeds’ WP editorial IBOB mentions above.
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Signed- Bored and apparently struggling with remaining on topic
AFF, I’m tremendously busy so I do what I can with the blog. I’m making due with the site change, but I think everyone is missing Loudoun Insider.
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As for moderated comments, I specifically deleted a post directed at another commenter using vulgar language. If you’ve done other posts, chances are they’re just caught in the spam filter; I usually clear it out once a day.
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