Rasmussen: McDonnell +9, Back in Control

By VA Blogger

Rasmussen Reports, conducted September 29th (9/16 results in parenthesis):


Bob McDonnell: 49% (47%)
Creigh Deeds: 39% (42%)


When pushing undecideds into leaners, we get:


Bob McDonnell: 51% (48%)
Creigh Deeds: 42% (46%)


In two weeks, McDonnell has turned a +2 toss-up into a +9 lead (+5 into +10 with leaners). This is the third IVR poll conducted this week, following SurveyUSA (+14) and PPP (+5); I’ll have my thoughts on those polls and others later today.


According to Rasmussen, Deeds leads among women (+5), but McDonnell is up big among men (+26) and even bigger among Independents (a ridiculous 62-22 spread, or +40). Deeds may be shoring up his base with his continued cultural attacks on McDonnell and support for a tax increase, but its clearly coming at the expense of Independents.


Though there is a mistake on their topline report, the image scores remain favorable for McDonnell, who is viewed favorable by 53% and unfavorably by 37%, compared to 46%/45% for Deeds..


Just over half (51%) say McDonnell’s thesis is important. Regarding actual issues pertaining to governing, McDonnell continues his vast lead over Deeds on taxes (51%-36%) and spending (46%-30%), and now has a double-digit lead on transportation as well (45%-32%).


Interestingly, nearly as many say Mark Warner’s endorsement would make them more likely (33%) to vote for Deeds as less likely (30%), while a plurality (34%) say it would have no impact. Speaking of “no impact”, Doug Wilder’s non-endorsement, while a slap in the face to the Deeds campaign, is recorded as “no impact” by 80% of respondents. In the crosstabs, that number drops to 73% among African-Americans, but 17% say Wilder’s non-endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Deeds. Intriguing.


President Obama’s approval stands at 52%/48%, while Chairman Kaine clocks in at 59%/40%. More to come on all the polls later on, so stay tuned.


Comments

  • Ric James says:

    Tim Kaine’s at a nearly 60% approval rating? Seriously?

  • Michael says:

    The only poll I am interested in is Nov. 3rds

  • Nate says:

    Stories are circulating that Kane and the DNC may end up witholding the $5 Million that was promised to the Deeds campaign: http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2009/09/30/5-million-what-5-million/.

  • Cato the Elder says:

    Where did all our lib trolls go?
    *
    I’d think ISOC, NJ(i)SM and Danny would be all over this one telling us how a 20 YO thesis will save them in the end.
    *
    True story, I was at lunch today with a group of non-affiliated, indie entrepreneur voters when one asked me what I thought of the Deeds-McDonnell race. Putting on my best deer-in-the-headlights look (far be it from me to bear my true partisan colors – it’s necessary to remain unobtrusive in order to win business from all stripes) I simply commented: “One of the things that makes me proud to be a Virginian is that negative campaigning always seems to have the opposite of the intended effect here.” You see, I knew exactly what to say to ignite the tenderbox, and the heads around the table started bobbing up and down. One said: “Deeds looked a little shaken in those debates.” “Angry?” (OK – I helped him a little) “Yes – he blurted.” “Yes” I added, “and more than a bit unstable.” “Not the kind of person we need as Governor,” added another. “I really don’t understand why he spent so much time focusing on McDonnell’s college thesis,” another chimed in.
    *
    Which was where the conversation naturally ended. Chalk up 5 more indie votes for Bob. Don’t worry kids, I’ll pull another five tomorrow…

  • Not John S. Mosby says:

    Wow, that’s impressive Cato, maybe tomorrow you’ll convince a woman to have sex with you.

  • Cato the Elder says:

    That horse already left the barn. I’m probably your father.

  • Cato the Elder says:

    And it’s no accident I used the horse metaphor BTW.

  • kelley in virginia says:

    cato, i would be sorely disappointed if you were NotJohn’s father. but if i find that you are IBleedObama’s father, well, i just can’t say on the internet.

  • Lovettsville Lady says:

    The WaPo must be so distressed. They’ve worked SOOO hard, pushing the thesis story. Today the WaPo had yet another negative front page article on McDonnell and women. Now it appears their attacks have backfired and McDonnell continues to climb in the polls, three good polls in two days. Poor WaPo, their best efforts have done nothing but help McDonnell.

  • Not John S. Mosby says:

    Sort of reminds me of the Webb-Allen polls. And the Kaine-Kilgore polls. And some of the polls from last October and even a few days before the election where McCain was up by 2-4 points…….

  • Loudoun Lady says:

    I don’t remember any polls with McCain up except right after Palin got on the ticket.

  • VA Blogger says:

    And any competent observer would tell you that McDonnell is running a much better campaign than either Allen or Kilgore.

  • Dan (not the liberal one) says:

    NtoJohn, as of yet, Bob hasn’t run a Hitler commerical yet or had a macaca moment. Deeds meanswhile keeps demonstrating that he is a backward and incompetent fool.

  • RichmondDem says:

    “And any competent observer would tell you that McDonnell is running a much better campaign than either Allen or Kilgore.”
    .
    RD’s Law:
    .
    When the (X) Party is running smart, competent campaigns at the federal level, the (X) Party is running dumb-ass campaigns in Virginia.

  • Joe Momma says:

    So GOP’ers and other tax phobics (oh sorry, that would be GOP members only). How do you propose to build/improve roads without money….the construction fairy? Or maybe you’re in denial that we need such things?

    Seriously, are taxes and imposing you religious beliefs on others your main criteria in life?

  • Joe Momma says:

    “The WaPo must be so distressed. They’ve worked SOOO hard, pushing the thesis story. Today the WaPo had yet another negative front page article on McDonnell and women. Now it appears their attacks have backfired and McDonnell continues to climb in the polls, three good polls in two days. Poor WaPo, their best efforts have done nothing but help McDonnell.”

    All this proves (again) is what a backwoods state we live in. Enjoy your barefoot and pregnant, home school lifestyle. ;)

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