There are some good responses to the attention-grabbing 19-point lead SurveyUSA gives Bob McDonnell. On the right, Bearing Drift and Virtucon point out that SurveyUSA was the most accurate 2008 Virginia pollster, while the Right-wing Liberal notices that the internals are structurally worse for Republicans, yet all three candidates improve on their lead. On the left, Lowell is less happy.
I can’t add much about the poll by itself, so I wanted to take a look at SurveyUSA’s role this cycle thus far. It seems everytime they release a poll, it gets dinged as an “outlier”, until later polls come out. Consider:
** On July 27-28, SurveyUSA gave McDonnell a 15-point lead (55-40), the largest at the time since Deeds won the nomination. The same week, PPP confirmed the results with a 14-point lead (51-37), and two weeks later the Post also found a 15-point lead (54-39).
** In the midst of ThesisGate, from September 1-3, SurveyUSA gave McDonnell a 12-point lead (54-42), essentially stating that the thesis wasn’t having a real impact. This was supported a week later by Research 2000/Daily Kos, which gave McDonnell a virtually identical lead from before the thesis (50/43, from 51/43), and by all accounts the thesis is currently “old news”.
** On September 26-29, SurveyUSA gave McDonnell a 14-point lead (55-41), after four consecutive polls showed the race within five points or less. Afterwards, Rasmussen (+9), the Post (+9), and Mason-Dixon (+8) confirmed that McDonnell still had a comfortable lead.
** Now with two weeks left in the race, SurveyUSA gives McDonnell a commanding 19-point lead (59-40), an 8-point jump from their early October results. Today, PPP confirmed their results, showing a 7-point jump of their own, giving McDonnell a 12-point lead (52-40), up from five points in September.
All in all, SurveyUSA looks more like a presage than an outlier.
.
![[Post to Twitter]](http://www.tooconservative.com/wp-content/plugins/tweet-this/icons/tt-twitter.png){kind=icon}
Oct 21st by VA Blogger
It will be one thing if Deeds loses the election…I think that would show something about what Virginia thinks about the democrat’s agenda. But if he loses by 20% ? Wow.
BD and VV make some good points, but I’m still highly skeptical of this poll. I don’t talk about polls too much, but I have serious fears that this is an outlier, or McDonnell may be peaking too early.
James, the other way to look at it is whether McDonnell is peaking at about the same time that Democratic activists start to decide whether they want to help get the vote out for Deeds and the Dem ticket or not.
Even if this poll is an outlier, we’ve got multiple polls in the last two weeks that have the entire Republican slate up by double digits. This is great momentum and we need to keep it going.
Democrats only polling, PPP, released their poll today. They shows McDonnell up by 12, Bolling up by 10 and Cuccinelli up 15.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/mcdonnell-pulling-away.html
Lots of good stuff there, including this: >>>When we first polled the general election in early July 29% of voters in the state had an unfavorable opinion of Deeds. Now 48% do. McDonnell’s negatives have increased only from 32% to 35% during that time. At the start of the campaign they both had a net favorability rating of +19. Now McDonnell’s is +21 and Deeds’ is -7.<<< Amazing!
A twenty point margin? Not gonna happen.
.
The interesting polling is in the New Jersey race. Corzine is stuck at 39% because people know they don’t like him. Christie’s numbers are falling fast because it turns out he is a bigger sleaze than Corzine. And Daggett is polling at 20%.
.
Everybody realizes the Daggett voters may decide this by choosing to vote for their guy or by holding their noses and voting for one of the major party douche bags. I think the interesting question may be, can Daggett win it himself? Not likely. But stranger things have happened.
The New York 23 special election picked up another “headliner”. Everyone’s favorite crazy Congress critter, Michele Bachmann has endorsed Hoffman. So, she joins Dick Armey in the attempt to scuttle the Republican nominee. Newt Gingrich — that exemplar of family values — has, to his credit, endorsed the Republican.
.
It would appear the crazies are going to gift wrap this one for the Democrats.
.
My party used to be the more amusing to watch. But Republicans have far surpassed anything we ever achieved in sheer nuttiness.
NLS just un-endorsed Deeds.
There’s hope yet!
The Republican is ahead in Virginia and NJ is too close to call or even slightly leaning towards Corzine…this is the complete opposite of what I expected to happen this year!
If NLS un-endorsed Deeds then there is still hope indeed! No offense to Ben, but his endorsement is the kiss of death.
.
Latest polling in New Jersey has Christie down by three. I say Christie down by three because it is the result of his falling numbers and not any increase for Corzine.
Corzine is doing better because negative campaigning works in New Jersey–it’s EXPECTED, even. If you visit NYC during election season and turn on local TV you see this in fully display. Some of the nastiest negative ads I’ve ever seen–ads that make Willie Horton and the Swiftboaters look tame–came from local and state level New Jersey races.
Dan–
Indeed. It would be such a kick in the nuts for Ben if Deeds pulls away right after he said he’s not voting for him. But hilarious. Especially since McAuliffe took a nosedive RIGHT AFTER his official endorsement.
I gather that Ben does not have many fans in this neck of the woods.
Wolverine, I used to like his blog until the 2008 Democratic Primaries. Then I started liking it less. And then when Leslie Byrne lost (AGAIN) and Ben went batsh** crazy, attacking Kaine and Conolly just about every single day, well…his blog hasn’t recovered since.