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Nov 03rd by Too Conservative
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Predictions?
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John Garamendi will win CA-10 with 56% of the vote.
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Sarah Palin will claim credit for a McDonnell victory because of the last minute robocalls she made in Virginia.
I also predict that if Hoffmann wins in NY-23 the folks on the far right will foolishly conclude that the answer to future electoral success is to run more oddballs like Hoffmann who claims a weirdo like Glenn Beck as his “mentor”. They will completely ignore how a very far right of center candidate like Bob McDonnell very wisely ran his entire campaign claiming to be a moderate.
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I derided it as “wearing his brand new moderate suit” and it is complete BS, but I give him credit for having an effective and intelligent strategy and executing it beautifully. He didn’t associate himself with the crazy people frothing at the mouth about socialism and screaming about death panels. He ran as a moderate because that is how you win elections. He didn’t even run as a Republican, leaving that decidedly not moderate label off of his advertising. He was successful to such an extent that he was able to brush aside even his close association with an un-American extremist like Pat Robertson. The guy ran a solid campaign.
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I bet his example will be ignored. I predict that the Republicans will continue to embrace the crazy and thereby fail to capitalize on their opportunities in 2010.
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Another key difference between Hoffmann and McDonnell is their level of preparedness. Without regard to political views, McDonnell clearly is qualified for the office he seeks. Hoffmann, not so much. He seems to have the same grasp of issues facing NY-23 that Sarah Palin has of national issues. That is to say, a very poor grasp.
Dan, why are you still in the Palin bashing mode? She is not even running for an office!
Un-American extremist Pat Robertson? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
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Bob McDonnell did run a brilliant campaign, and he is an incredible candidate, but one of the biggest reasons that he is doing so well is democrats. Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid: Virginia doesn’t like what she sees…
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“I bet his example will be ignored.”
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No such luck. Bob has shown us the way. Wear the moderate costume, refuse to disavow previously held conservative positions, and never apologize. Redure the opposition to shrill, wingnut conspiracy theorists screaming about “manchurian” candidates and the like (like yourself). Leak just enough of a prop (like a 20 year old thesis) that serves as catnip to your opposition such that they fixate on it and make themselves look asinine.
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Yup, I saw all that. Widescreen.
my prediction is the same one the old country doctor offered every year, “the candidate with the most votes will win.”
Funny. I was just listening to Haley Barbour, whose political acumen certainly exceeds either yours or mine, and he was saying that what you call “one of the biggest reasons” is being very much overstated. Barbour is a very bright guy who did a far better job running the RNC than that clownish Michael Steele. I think his opinion carries some weight.
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I don’t expect the crazy wing of the party to listen to Barbour. Facts and evidence are so boring. Sometimes they contradict what you want to believe.
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I was not engaging in gratuitous Palin bashing. I was drawing a comparison between Hoffmann and Palin as both being lightweights who don’t seem to have any interest in doing their homework. I drew the contrast with Bob McDonnell who is someone who is qualified for the office he seeks regardless of how one feels about his political views.
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And yes, Pat Robertson is an un-American son of a bitch. My memories of the immediate post 9-11 period are still vivid. I recall President Bush at ground zero and I felt proud of his demeanor and his words that day. I recall him giving a fine speech to a joint session of Congress that made me cheer him and gave me the sense that he saw this as a decades long struggle much like the cold war.
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I also remember Pat Robertson saying stupid, hateful, and un-American things on his television show. Hateful and divisive things about America and his fellow Americans. If I had been in the room I would have punched the bastard.
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The fact that this con man has convinced so many that he is a man of God makes him that much worse. His unethical and very probably criminal business activities over the years would have gotten most folks indicted. He has done very well using God as a dodge.
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You can laugh about my characterization of Robertson if you like. The man is a total piece of crap. And I do find McDonnell’s association with such a low life scum to be troubling. Perhaps you have lower standards.
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Should McDonnell be our next governor I would hope he is a good one. I would also hope he never picks up the phone to get Robertson’s advice or views on anything.
Cato, you have it backwards. It is your folks claiming Obama is the manchurian candidate. Remember. A secret Muslim, communist, fascist, socialist, born in Kenya manchurian candidate.
We will see next year which model is more often followed. I have a feeling I will be enjoying that show a bit more than you. We are gonna see more Bachmann and Palin types than McDonnell types. Which will minimize Republicans taking full advantage of their 2010 opportunities.
I predict that no one will offer a prediction any wiser or more accurate than that offered by Bwana.
Dan -Whatever. Keep thinking that you have it all sewn up.
It’s always a good day when the liberals are going crazy. You probably won’t see too many R’s posting today because they are out working the polls and/or other grassroots campaigning. You’ll see some happy posts around 9 pm.
I am on a break from working the polls but it felt good this morning, the R’s were happy and the D’s were bitter.
LL, isn’t that the way it normally is? R’s are happy, D’s are bitter… Even when the R’s lose and the D’s win. (Just look at IBOB and NJSM, they haven’t ever thunked a happy thought in their lives!)
Ryan, I hardly expressed that we have it sewn up. It clearly is going to be a good day for Republicans. And history would lead us to believe that the opposition party will pick up seats in the 2010 midterms.
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What I expressed is the belief that in the interpretation of today’s results are the seeds of Republicans fumbling many of their opportunities in 2010. One need look no farther than many of the comments on some of the threads on this blog for evidence of that.
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I would take exception to your bitter comments. My experience with folks working the polls for both parties has been positive. I have always had a good time and have enjoyed the company of my Republican counterparts as well. They are my neighbors.
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There are malcontents of all political stripes of course. While working the polls in 2006 wearing a Webb for Senate shirt I had a fellow look me in the eye and say, “F*ck you. I hope you die.” No joke. And on the way out he wished death upon my entire family.
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I believe that guy sorta missed the whole point of democracy. And I certainly wouldn’t judge all Republicans or all Allen supporters by that very strange and disturbed individual. I applaud all the folks who give their time to the political process.
I was working Swans Creek precinct in PWC this morning. VERY light turnout. Last year at 5 AM, an hour before the polls opened, there were hundreds waiting in line. This morning, there were 5 of us who voted at 6 AM.
I got there about 5:30 AM and put up signs for the GOP statewide ticket, separate Bill Bolling signs and Rafael Lopez for Delegate signs. Just after 6, Luke Torian’s crew showed up and put up a bunch of signs for him, but no one else! They’re taking their cue from Obama and throwing Deeds / Wagner / Shannon under the bus and trying to save Torian. I’d say that the traditional GOP voters in the precinct plus Hispanic voters will counterweight the Torian voters. And this precinct went HUGE for Obama / Warner / Bill Day last year!
Bitter comments? Hmmmm. Disagreement, yes. Scorn, maybe. But bitter? No, I don’t think I’m one of the few on this blog who exemplifies bitter.
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But, if you want to think I’m bitter, go ahead.
Ryan, I wasn’t calling you bitter. I was referring to your comments about poll workers being bitter.
Riley, I wouldn’t expect turnout anywhere close to a presidential election year. Any sense of how turnout compares to other gubernatorial elections?
Frankly in the end it matter less how one runs a successful campaign than it does how they govern. Bob ran masterful campaign avoiding the divisive issues like say a Kilgore engaged in with Kaine and Bob played right for the center/independents that decide statewide elections here. That said, everyone should pay particular attention to HOW he governs. Remember, people like Huckabee ran far right conservative campaigns and yet when elected down south governed very liberally by any conservatives standards.
I can’t say, Dan, since Swans Creek precinct was just created last year when they split Potomac precinct in two. A lot of new homes have been built in Swans Creek precinct since the last two gubernatorial elections.
Based on this polling data (http://www.loudountimes.com/media/photos/2009/11/02/Online-Election_Layout-1.jpg) I predict a Republican sweep in Loudoun County
We were just discussing voter turnout in similar years, 32-33% was thought to be the estimate for today. Last November it was 52% in VA, but from I remember there were huge lines everywhere in the morning and it trickled down the rest of the day.
Riley, would you agree that lower than normal turnout favors the Republicans in this election even more than low turnout typically does? I think turnout will tell the tale in a few of the HoD races.
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If it is extremely low I think the margins statewide will be greater and the terrain will be more difficult for Democrats in the more competitive HoD races. If the turnout is more typical for a gubernatorial election I think the statewide margin will be closer and Democratic HoD candidates will be the primary beneficiaries.
I’d say that it could be normal turnout, but it is skewed in that the Dem precincts are extremely anemic while the GOP precincts are going gung ho.
Turnout in 2005 was 44.96% and 2001 was 46.38%. If turnout is well below that I would expect there will be a lot of happy Republicans tonight. If turnout is close to the 45% range I don’t think the apocalyptic predictions for Democrats in the HoD will come to pass.
PREDICTIONS:
McDonnell 55-45 over Deeds; McDonnell wins Loudoun 57-43 and gets 44-46% in Fairfax County (only needs 40 to 41% to win Virginia)
Cuccinelli wins 52-48, but gets trounced in Fairfax County due to the Post and shannon ads. Bolling gets 56-44 over Wagner.
Greason, LeMunyon, Rust all win. Greason wins due to the sleaze campaign by truthabouttag.com. Many soccer and scout moms were p.o’d with that mailer since their kids saw it first.
COrzine wins in New Jersey due to African American turnout and street money!
Bloomberg wins in NYC.
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I predict Dan will continue to miss the lessons being demonstrated to the US over the past year.
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Oh, and McDonnell, Bolling, Cuccinelli for the win (easy picks yes), Rust wins in a squeaker (not happy about it, but it’s the reality of the situation), and Aaron Ringel for the upset.
Ok, I’ll give it my best guesses:
McDonnell will win by 14 to 16%
Bolling by 13 to 15%
Ken by 16 to 18%
ALL of our Loudoun county delegates will win because voters know that anything else means more tax increases and more gridlock on our roads. They also know that their democrat delegates have done NOTHING to help their districts.
Christie will win by a whisper in NJ, unless the Corzine corruption machine is working well today. Ummm…….could be a problem for Christie. Corzine cheats. (not exactly a news flash)
Hoffman will win in NY, Democratgs hold on to CA 10.
McDonnell: 53.7%
Deeds: 44.1%
Mcdonnell by 7%
Cuccinelli by 10%
Bolling by 9%
A sweep. Further, I predict that Deeds/Shannon/Wag will fade to nothing in the coming years. No dem will want to touch them after this race.
My prediction?
1) T-Mac will be back!
http://www.politico.com/playbook/
2) Delegate wins by Grearson, LeMunyon, and Anderson; holds by Albo and Rust – not sold on Comstock or Lopez yet. It might happen, but handicapping like you have money on it is how I roll.
3) We take the two out of the three VA Beach seats (Bouchard, Matheison, Amiral), just not sure what order.
4) Gerry Connolly, if he can get reelected, because the automatic frontrunner for the 2013 governor’s race – Democrats will never again make the mistake of not have a prominent NoVAian on the ticket.
5) Bob McDonnell will take down Jim Webb in 2012, allowing Bill Bolling to run as an incumbant governor, with Cooch running for reelection.
6) Tom Perriello and Rick Boucher will collectively soil themselves seeing what is happening to a rural Democrat trying to deal with the far-left majority in Congress and the far-left President who is forcing things down their throats they don’t want. Go Hurt and Kilgore! RUN!
Dan, thank you for that vote of confidence. In no order of importance:
I think…
…the statewide guys win by large enough margins that arguing how they did it or who is stronger will be like arguing how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.
…the Dems are going to pin this on Creigh Deeds campaign and ignore any indication that there were other factors involved, leaving those weaknesses to sit and fester to for 2010 and 2011. For fuller discussion of these head over to my joint for my thoughts on same.
…I have no idea about the HOD. I can argue with equal persuasiveness for a GOP +2 or a GOP +11. I don’t think there is yet systemic and toxic dislike of dem candidates we saw toward GOP candidates in 2006-2008, so the # of seats is going to be turnout driven…which, as Riley says above will driven by dem turnout diminishment. If the dem vote doesn’t turn out in the right place…YAHTZEE!
…I hope and pray that the NOVA person on the 2013 ticket is Gerry Connolly-but it is more likely to be Chap Petersen.
…It will be a while before we see a statewide candidate from west of the Blue Ridge mountains.
…Virginia is not near a blue commonwealth as a lot of folks would have you think.
The lesson of 23 is dissatisfaction with the BAILOUTS! The fiscal conservative and libertarian part of the party want to take Paulson, Bush and McCain and shove the bailout bills down their throats. Cantor is a typical apparatchick WIMP who some of you party hacks think is “tough”. It’s not about social conservatism. It’s about Milton Freidman!
Cantor has alot of support here with conservatives but just not fiscal conservatives. They see him as a sellout TCO. He talks alot about getting back to reducing the debt, balance budgets, and the like but in the end he was as big of a rubber stamp to it all as anyone, even during some of the Bush years when it could have made a real difference-as in pre-2006 election cycle. Many here simply think he is a fraud now, but are thankful the other side has never decided to put someone up to face him worth much. I bet Virgil Goode wishes he were so lucky last cycle.
Greason edges out Poisson 52-48
Greason gave Poisson a good old fashioned ass-whooping! 57-42.
[...] the Dems fight over Lib/Mod, the GOP will fight over Mod/Con/mondoCon. Any doubts on this? Go here and see the back and forth over Cooch, conservatism, etc., that was taking place before the polls [...]