WaPo reports that both Janet Oleszek and Del. David Bulova are both out of the running for AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli’s Springfield-based Senate seat; Olesek because Democrats forced her aside in favor of someone able to speak in complete sentences and Bulova likely because his House district only overlaps with two precincts in the 37th. Still, at least Bulova lives in one of those two precincts, which is more than we can say about Sen.-Chap-Peterson-constituent Del. Dave Marsden, who appears to be the preferred candidate to flip this seat.
Marsden will have to pull a Stevens Miller and move into the 37th, though he’ll have ten precincts to choose from that overlap with his current House district. Unfortunately for Democrats, he lost four of them on Tuesday, on his way to barely edging out a candidate who raised less than $50K on his own. All in all, the former Republican looks to be a less-than-inspired choice for Senate, so ouch for Oleszek. Of course, given all of this, its possible that Marsden will decline to run as well, and Democrats simply figured running no one was preferable to Janet.
On the Republican side, the three candidates are the executive director of Greenspring Will Nance, former Bush EPA head and environmental consultant Marianne Horinko, and former Fairfax County School Board member Steve Hunt.
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UPDATE: Ben is suggesting that recently-ousted Del. Chuck Caputo would be a better candidate. Tough to see how; like Marsden, Caputo would have to move into the district to run, and he lost 8 of the 11 precincts that overlap with the 67th, which makes Marsden’s 4 out of 10 look a lot better.
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Of course, two years ago Ben foresaw this possibility and raised a different name, Sully School Board Member Kathy Smith, who lives in Rocky Run precinct and outperformed both Oleszek and Caputo in 2007. Anyone know a reason why no one, including Ben, is calling her number?
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Nov 06th by VA Blogger
Have a feeling Marianne Horinko is probably the front-runner for the GOP nod. Cooch held a fundraiser at her home a few months back, so you can probably expect him to back her.
If Marsden’s the nominee, we hold the seat.
TC Robinson
on November 6th, 2009When is the special election? I’m curious to see the discussion on these 3 candidates.
Loudoun Lady
on November 6th, 2009Based on what exactly TC? Looks like Marsden ran pretty darn strong against an overwhelming Republican advantage in his district. McDonald, Bolling and KC all won the district and he has represented about a third of the 37th for 4 years now, winning that part of the district in each of the three times he’s been up for election.
Really?
on November 6th, 2009We really should put all the cards on the table-in 2005 he was the endorsed successor to the retiring GOP delegate (and his longtime legislative aide), and ran unopposed in 2007. He outspent Bolognese almost 4-1 (191K to 48K). With all that he won narrowly and was held under 50%…and carried the 10 precincts in sen 37 by fewer than 50 votes…and this was in the democratic end of the 37th.
Marsden is not an impressive public speaker, doing better with small groups or one on one than to larger groups. This weakness has been obscured in his delegate district by four years in office and the years previous as legislative aide. I don’t know how it plays in the sprint to office of a special election.
I won’t go so far as to agree with TCR above, but I don’t know that Marsden is as strong a candidate as Really paints him to be. Oh, and that is before we get to the potential carpetbagger issue…
Bwana
on November 6th, 2009Steve Hunt is my first choice, hands down. He’s got the name recognition, and the credentials to win. He’s very popular with parents because of his efforts on their behave while on the school board for all those years.
I would be totally shocked if the democrats let Janet ”if I only had a brain” Oleszek run again. It would be embarrassing to have her again representing them but it would delight her opponent.
Who is Marianne Horinko? I’ve never heard of her. Has she been in local politics?
While it was nice of Marianne to host a fundraiser for Ken, I would be very surprised if Ken Cuccinelli didn’t endorse Steve Hunt.
Lovettsville Lady
on November 6th, 2009I know both Steve Hunt and Marianne Horinko. While I do not know Will Nance, I have nothing per se against him.
Steve has certainly worked hard for a lot of Republicans and has been a great source of help and information about the school system (which I can vouch for since I have school-aged children). I also agree with the above comments that Hunt probably has the best name recognition, and perhaps organization. He is also a veteran, which counts for something with a lot of voters, and a good, funny speaker. He has a lot of familiarity with local (school budget, etc.) issues.
Marianne Horinko worked in EPA first as a civil servant (in the Bush I administration) and then became a political appointee under George W. Bush. For a while she was acting Administrator of the EPA. A lot of 9/11 cleanup as well as development of “brownfields cleanup” programs happened on her watch. She supported Ken Cuccinelli from his early campaigns, and hosted fundraisers for Ken Cuccinelli and Jim LeMunyon. She has been a tireless campaigner and has access to a lot of money, I think. Her background is interesting, with both chemistry and law degrees. She has been pretty active in schools and community since she has school-aged children as well. She is a pretty good speaker and well-informed on issues.
Honestly, I would not have a problem supporting whoever won the Republican nod, but right now I am keeping my voting decision to myself. In any case, I have to see if there will be a firehouse primary (which I favor) or a “mass meeting” (which I may well avoid).
Ron
on November 6th, 2009Fair enough Bwana, but I can’t for the life of me figure out where VPAP got the number you used (though I clearly see where you got it from). When you look at the ‘Money Out’ tab, it’s not nearly that much. Also, you’ll note that Bolognese’s totals only include money received by 10/21 (the date of the last report), after which an additional $44,000 was pumped into his campaign. So when you add that money in, it’s not as wide a disparity.
You are careful to note that Marsden “carried the 10 precincts in sen 37 by fewer than 50 votes,” which is true. However, you neglect to mention that KC carried those SAME precincts by over 700 votes and most amazingly, Gov.-Elect McDonald carried them by over 1500 votes! Now that’s what I call a headwind! Even with all that going against him, Marsden pulled it out.
Who knows if A) Marsden will even run, and B) how he would do if he did, but I’d be concerned if he does. That’s a pretty remarkable amount of crossover appeal to my way of thinking.
Really?
on November 6th, 2009Well, then there’s also the fact that he’d have to move into the district, within a matter of weeks.
VA Blogger
on November 6th, 2009Folks we have to remember this will be a special election in the middle of the holiday season or the dead of winter (has to be completed before 13 JAN in order for the district to not go unrepresented)! I don’t care who the Dems nominate, it will come down to who has the best ground game in the district. Ken had the best ground game ever seen there and much of that was energized by his ability to draw out conservatives.
If the Republicans nominate a strong conservative and Ken gets his forces behind the candidate, short of a huge turnouround in the political winds over the next couple of months, the Republicans will hold this seat. However, if the Republicans nominate a liberal, that could be enough to keep people at home this winter and give the Dems a fighting chance.
That said, Hunt is clearly a proven, strong conservative with alot of community service (in and outside the Party) and name recognition having run 3 times county-wide for school board (winning once and narrowly being defeated twice, the last time by a candidate who outspent him 10-1). He has an outstanding resume and is known for being very respectful to the other side during his time on the school board.
I don’t know Horinko, and am happy she held a fundraiser for Ken, but she had better get her conservative quals out there if she expects people to get behind her. Her chosen field of work does not lend itself to engenderment with alot of conservatives, and if you look at her company’s web-site http://www.thehorinkogroup.org/ you’ll see that on their front page they are touting the fact that they purchase carbon off-sets. Talk about your big-time moneymaking scams! Not something that alot of conservatives would be clamouring to do. Additionally here’s a quote from the same site “We help organizations better understand the shifting landscape and move quickly towards creating a lasting advantage, whether it is becoming more energy-efficient, improving recruitment and retention, building support among key audiences, or developing a green ethic.” Green Ethic??? What the heck is that?! I’m all for ethics, but I could care less about “green” ones. I for one am tired of all this “Green” everything, and I used to really like that color (Kermit the Frog songs aside). Plus her campaign web-site won’t even let you enter unless you register with them.
I’ve never heard of Nance, and while his web-page touts alot of conservative positions and he has some interesting endorsements, I think he would be a long-shot, mainly because of a lack of name recognition. He could also end-up the spoiler if we end up with two conservatives and one liberal in the primary (those of you in the 67th will remember that’s how we got Gary Reese, who eventually gave us Chuck Kaput-O). Not saying Horinko is a liberal, but she needs to really prove her case if she’s not.
Finally, I don’t think Ken will endorse anyone in the Primary. He typically has not done that kind of thing unless there was a real reaosn for it. Most definitely we need a candidate that can energize the Cuccinelli machine in order to be sure to win. While none of these candidates may have the energy and drive of a Ken Cuccinelli, I think Steve Hunt is probably the best one to take that baton.
Rtwng Extrmst
on November 6th, 2009I was able to get into Horinko’s campaign web-site tonight, something I wasn’t able to do yesterday. She’s talking alot of conservative talk there. I’d still like to see the proof. I did pull a couple of interesting quotes from her issue page on transportation:
“4.I will work to expand metro-rail to Dulles and expand mass transit programs, to enable faster economic growth and a better standard of living
5.I will support the use of public-private partnerships that promote efficient, intelligent, environmentally low impact transportation systems.”
I don’t know that #4 is exactly a fact that it will enable faster economic growth, nor increase standards of living. I also seem to remember Ken Cuccinelli has opposed extension of Metro to Dulles.
Rtwng Extrmst
on November 6th, 2009Yup. Ken’s supporting Steve. Me too.
Lovettsville Lady
on November 7th, 2009NLS is proposing that Caputo move to run.
So, they’re thinking “carpetbagger” will play well, along with (pardon me, but it’s apt this week) “loser”?
Good lord.
Barbara Munsey
on November 7th, 2009I heard Will Nance held a fundraiser for the Cooch as well. As far as Caputo moving into the district, do you think the old boy’s heart could hold out with another loss. Stick a fork in him, he is done!
55
on November 7th, 2009LL, Has Ken endorsed Steve? Where have you seen that?
Rtwng Extrmst
on November 7th, 2009Ken won’t be endorsing anybody, though I’m sure all three candidates are saying privately that they have his support.
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RE, there’s nothing wrong with “green ethic”; there’s nothing about conservatism that means we have to hate the environment. In fact, Bob McDonnell even said at the convention that conservationalism and conservatism go together.
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And Gary Reese didn’t give us Chuck Caputo, Chris Craddock did. Maybe that should be a prudent warning against electing people too socially conservative for their district, particularly in Northern Virginia, particularly after our previous successes came from electing pragmatic, good-government types instead.
VA Blogger
on November 7th, 2009VAB, correct that Reese did not give us Caputo, except in the sense that a good ground game in a contested primary secures the eventual election result sometimes, doesn’t it?
The 67th was worked like hell for Craddock at primary, and he was a bad fit for the majority of the district, as was proved when Caputo was elected.
As for “green” everything, I think we all need to move beyond and avoid the simplistic trap that produces the “so you WANT children to drink poisoned water and breather polluted air?!” whenever someone says “oh, #*^! “green” out of sheer frustration.
“Green” is a word that has already moved toward redefinition, and basically become a mass marketing term, instead of a purely political one. As such, it has been debased.
In addition, green products, while popular (in the true sense of the word “popularity”) are in some areas (notable organics) taking a bit of a hit due to the economy. feeling good and pure is great, but isn’t any longer making top spot in some personal budgets.
We need to move beyond the knee jerk on green. What RWE quotes above sounds to me like little more than the marketing everyone does these days, and to delve too deeply into the underlying purity of the “greenness” (from EITHER side) may be little more than a distraction.
There are a lot of Dems in that district. How many are true progressive hardcore believers, and how many are good ordinary people who like to think they’re helping the planet through their choices (on BOTH sides of the political aisle)?
Barbara Munsey
on November 7th, 2009It’s a special election, not a general, and the district will likely be redistricted to favor the incumbent before they must run again in 2011.
There’s no time to do extensive Voter ID, so any Republican nominee will be relying almost solely on Ken’s socially conservative list (which is a killer list, btw). That makes the question really really simple: Which candidate can churn out more of the social conservative base Ken has built?
A moderate simply isn’t going to cut it.
If this were Vienna or Annandale or Herndon or Fairfax or Springfield, that might be a different story. It’s not. This is the most red part of Fairfax County (minus Fair Oaks), it’s a SPECIAL election, and it’s Ken’s list.
You either run a credible social conservative or you might as well just give up now.
Thankfully, disengenuiously or not, all three candidates seem to grasp that.
Recovering Moderate
on November 7th, 2009I’m not saying to NOT run a SoCon, but look at someone like Tim Hugo. There’s no doubt he’s socially conservative, but that’s not what you think of when you think of him as a legislator. Let’s get a SoCon in there, but not someone who is going to make that their emphasis down in Richmond. We’ve had a good streak of candidates in the past 11 months, let’s not cut off our nose to spite our face here.
VA Blogger
on November 7th, 2009Two things-
1. Cooch does endorse-in fact, in spring 2003 at the 37th nominating convention he accepted the nod and urged folks who lived in va house 35 to be sure to vote for RM Mcdowell over mike Polychrones in a firehouse primary. So he has been known to endorse.
2. The GOP race is on-I got robocalled at 1506 today come to Horinko’s announcement on tuesday.
Bwana
on November 7th, 2009Here’s the bottom line, Horinko has money and Nance has connections to the Nat’l Party (and money). So expect to get alot of robocalls from them. Hunt has name recognition, experience in public office, and nearly 15 years of public service in the community, what he doesn’t have is… money. This primary will probably occur in less than two weeks. You do the math. Who do you think has more of a connection with the district?
VAB,
“RE, there’s nothing wrong with “green ethic”; there’s nothing about conservatism that means we have to hate the environment. In fact, Bob McDonnell even said at the convention that conservationalism and conservatism go together.”
There is nothing wrong with conservation. I am all for conservation and not wasting our resources. BTW I also don’t “hate the planet”. I am against the knee-jerk “we must save the planet” political correctness of the day though. The planet is not in trouble because of abuse of the environment, and anyone who buys carbon off-sets (implying they believe that human activity can somehow impact climate change) and uses the language of the extreme environmentalist wack-jobs to me is suspect. At a minimum they need to really prove their conservative credentials. We only have two weeks for Horinko to do this. Do you think you can trust her when she has a very sketchy community involvement record at best.
“And Gary Reese didn’t give us Chuck Caputo, Chris Craddock did. Maybe that should be a prudent warning against electing people too socially conservative for their district”
Gary Reese most certainly did give us Chuck Caputo. In 2003 two conservative candidates ran in a primary against “moderate” Reese for the open seat. The conservatives split 60% of the vote and Reese won with 40%. The base of the district was never happy with Reese who had a lack-luster term in the HoD. Two years later we get Chris Craddock (who’s no more socially conservative than Ken Cuccinelli, who has always carried his part of the 67th easily). Craddock takes Reese in the primary to no-one’s surprise (except maybe Reese) and Reese sourly endorses the Dem Kaput-O. Ergo, because of Reese (and the fact that two conservatives split the vote in a primary against him originally) we get Kaput-O. Craddock didn’t lose because he was a social conservative, Craddock lost because he was an inexperienced politician.
Bottom line, we don’t want to have what happened with Reese happen again (two conservatives splitting the vote to allow a liberal Republican to get in). When that happens one of two things occurs, the lib Republican gets elected (bad) or worse yet the Dem gets elected. The lesson from the whole 67th history is this, nominate serious conservative candidates in Districts like the 37th Senate and you will get good results. Steve Hunt is the only candidate of the three Republicans who has poured his life into this community for the last 15 years whether it be serving on the School Board, Boy Scouts, Assist CPC, the local, county, state, and national Republican Party… I could go on. The man is the best candidate bar none in this race and he’s got the resume and name recognition to prove it. Recovering Moderate has it right, a strong conservative will resonate with the Cuccinelli crowd and in a special election this should result in an easy win and protection of this seat in Republican hands. Risking nomination of an unknown at this point would only be a great risk to losing this seat.
BTW Tim Hugo would be a great candidate in my book, but I don’t think he’s in the 37th.
Rtwng Extrmst
on November 7th, 2009As for Kathy Smith, I have heard that she did not want to run for Ken’s seat. Perhaps she will change her mind if there is no other viable democrat. Currently she is chairman of the school board, again. Kathy would be an interesting candidate since she is prone to crying when making difficult decisions on the school board. A strong debate would surely result in deep sobs, not something democrats want to see in a candidate.
Lovettsville Lady
on November 7th, 2009c’mon: we needed to talk about the Healthcare bill. maybe some of you could have turned Connolly’s vote. We worked like dogs down here in the 5th to turn little tommy perriello’s vote, but were unsuccessful. Note: 2 Dems that want to keep their Congressional seats because they voted NO: Boucher (isnt’this a big surprise???) & Nye.
kelley in virginia
on November 8th, 2009Nothing would have turned Connelly’s vote, although I hear people in his District visited his office en masse on Thursday. The lowly toad hid and sent out his chief of staff, who was promptly told that they would be visiting Keith Fimian after 2010. His office got pounded with calls too.
On the 37th race. Cuccinelli just sent out his newsletter (the Compass) and stated he would not be endorsing anyone in the primary but would whole-heartedly support whoever is nominated.
Loudoun Lady
on November 8th, 2009RE, please clarify for me what is the langauge of extreme environmentalist whackjobs.
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I can’t believe you put more blame at the feet of Gary Reese than you do Chris Craddock. After ousting Reese in the primary he turned around and gave the election to Caputo on a silver platter. Yes, he was inexperienced, but he was also much too socially-focused for anyone’s appetite. That had so much more of an impact than Reese’s endorsement. Its a simple fact of politics: candidates matter.
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It’s about time we reassess politics in Fairfax County and realize that Ken Cuccinelli was an anomaly. He was the rare type of socially-focused politician who knew how to campaign and win. I wholeheartedly reject the assertion that someone as socially conservative as Ken will have no problem winning; you need the ability to campaign as well as Ken to go along with it, and he’s a once-in-a-decade type politician.
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Steve Hunt has the electoral experience, but he also has tremendous baggage from his one term on the school board and his two prior losses. Perhaps he is the best choice in a special election when no one is paying attention, but that’s not the type of politician that we’ve found success with in Fairfax County, Ken Cuccinelli aside. And that’s someone who is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2011, with a history of losing in off-off year election cycles.
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I reject that any of the three candidates are “liberal” Republicans. They may be a bit of a blank slate, sure, but that’s what campaigns are for. To automatically reject two of the three candidates out of hand in favor of a guy we know, despite what we know about him, is foolhardy.
VA Blogger
on November 8th, 2009VA blogger,
I didn’t say I blamed Reese more, but I blamed a series of events including conservatives splitting the vote in a primary, Reese’s lackluster performance, Craddock’s inexperience and naivete, and Reese endorsing the Dem. Had Reese been gracious and endorsed the Republican it might have been a closer race. Bottom line, had it not been for Reese, there never would have been a Chris Craddock.
I also didn’t say any of the candidates this year are in fact a lib. However in a short-turnaround special election there insn’t any time to vet either of them. We know Hunt is a strong conservative. I reject the idea that either Ken or Steve are “socially focused”. What they both are is all-around conservative. Both are social conservatives, yes, but they are also both very proficient on the rest of the conservative agenda. They are far from one-issue candidates. These are exactly the kind of social conservatives that can win in this district. Both have proven it time and again. Steve has always won this district in his School board elections. I believe this is a no-brainer. Had this been a regular cycle election with a full period of vetting, I might think differently, but as it is Steve is hands-down the most prepared and best all-around candidate for the 37th this year. Not to mention that after two years in the Senate it will be much more difficult to unseat him.
Rtwng Extrmst
on November 8th, 2009I hope that Nance is able to win the primary. He is the only one of the three primary candidates that has a legitimate shot to win in a general election. Hunt has too much baggage from his time on the school board and two election losses. Horinko has an impressive resume but her ties to the Bush Administration are sure to sink her. Nance has strong ties to the business community and a ton of conservative grassroots organizations. I think that combination is going to appeal to conservatives as well as moderates and will help him emerge victorious.
SJP
on November 9th, 2009I hear Horinko is telling people she wants to governor in 10 years. Ha! I heard that when the Senate Caucus did interviews with the candidates someone else answered the questions for her and the caucus walked away scared that there was even a possibility she was a candidate.
Not sure about Hunt or Nance but they have to be better then her.
Mike McGonigle
on November 10th, 2009I live in this district, and at least in my neighborhood it is a lot more important that the candidate be an economic conservative than a social one. People here are a lot more concerned with economic issues than social ones, and parroting positions like ‘cut taxes’ and ‘fix transportation’ and ‘better schools’ will not get anyone out for a special election.
I’ve gotten 3 mailings, 3 calls, and one door-to-door visit from Horinko supporters; I had to come to this site even to find out who else is running, for what that’s worth.
MattJ
on November 15th, 2009