UPDATE: The Firehouse Primary for the GOP nomination will be Tuesday, December 1st, from 6:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. at Centreville High School, 6001 Union Mill Road in Clifton, VA. Meanwhile, the current talk is that Ken Cuccinelli will wait until mid-January to resign his Senate seat.
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The campaigns on the Republican side are already in full swing, with bwana reporting he already received a robocall from Marianne Horinko and she and Will Nance has already sent out a first mailer (click for the full pdf of Nance’s). Nance is playing up his endorsement from Sen. Rick Santorum, his experience in Bush41’s Administration, and his work with Chuck Colson and Prison Fellowship Ministries.
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Steve Hunt had his campaign kickoff over the weekend, which BVBL (who took video) and Mason Conservative attended, along with around 60 others. Hunt also released a lengthy list of endorsements on his website that RedNova picked up. And he got some unflattering attention from Democratic blogger Kenton Ngo.
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Marianne Horinko had her kick-off on Tuesday night, welcoming a crowd of about 100 at her house in Sully, including local activists Mary Campbell (who introduced Marianne) and Anna Lee. Horinko gave brief remarks, stressing her role as a mother and a wife, as well as her work in the Bush43 administration working on environmental policy and her status as a small business owner.
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Will Nance’s first public event will be a meet and greet hosted by the Popes Head Precinct Co-Captains Kathy Rothschild and Easter Thompson, at the home of Kathy and Rick Rothschild, 5030 Oakcrest Drive in Fairfax. The event is on Sunday, November 15th, from 4:00 – 6:00 p.m.
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Judging by each campaign’s communications and websites, we’ll see a lot of same themes: follow in the trend of Bob McDonnell and Ken Cuccinelli, pro 2nd Amendment, pro-life, low tax, low regulation. Horinko and Nance both have business experience; Hunt has served as a Veteran. All three have local ties, though Hunt is the only one considered a “party activist”. Horinko clearly has the money advantage, though Nance has some resources as well.
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For my money, there is no “favorite” in the race for the nomination. Hunt has the name recognition within the party, but these contests are a matter of getting your supporters to turnout, and passive name identification only goes so far. Horinko will need to proliferate quickly and has the money to do so; the question is whether she can sufficiently stand out from her competitors and get commitments with all the voter contacts her campaign will make. It’s also possible that some voters will make a political calculation on who will have the most resources to hold the seat in the general election. And Nance has a built-in constituency among seniors (who are the most likely to vote) and is making a strong play for Catholics who were among Cuccinelli’s strongest supporters.
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Ultimately, this will all depend on who can get people to show up, and there’s no way to judge that until it happens. Seven years ago, Mike Thompson had the endorsements he wanted and the resources to win, and was upset by Ken Cuccinelli who identified his supporters and turned them out, and continued that model through his election as Attorney General.
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On the Democratic side, the game is being played a bit more politically: Del. Dave Marsden and the Party are literally waiting for the results of a poll to tell them who the best person to run is (though polling is notoriously difficult in low-turnout elections, so good luck that, DPVA!). Marsden wouldn’t confirm all the other names tested, but did confirm Janet Oleszek and fellow would-be carpetbagger Chuck Caputo. It’s tough to see the upside for Caputo to move into an area that voted so much for his opponent so he can become a freshman in the Senate at the age of 70, but its even tougher to see Oleszek change her mind and get in after confirming that no one in the party wants her to.
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So regardless of the poll and its results, such as they are, it looks like it’ll be Dave Marsden, who also confirmed that he has no problem moving (or at least buying a house in the district and changing his residence). Or the results could come back negatively for Marsden and he could pass, especially given that he won re-election so narrowly last week and the push-back he’s gotten from some in his party. In which case, Democrats would be without an obvious candidate as the days tick away.
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Nov 12th by VA Blogger
NLS posted over at my joint that Cooch has submitted his resignation effective 1.13.2010.
b
Great update, VAB. It’s going to be tough figuring out who to support when we have three credible candidates.
Steve Hunt has already put out a mail piece as well, VA Blogger. You might want to get the facts straight and be fair with your writing.
GP, you actually need to take up your concerns with bwana over at Rennaisaince Ruminations. I don’t live in the 37th (I’m a Chap Peterson constituent like Dave Marsden and Chuck Caputo), so I’m not getting any mail or robocalls. Bwana, who is a 37th District voter, reported getting a Horinko call and a mail piece from Horinko and Nance in the link that I provided, and the Nance campaign sent me his mailer. So between the two of us, you’re the only one with their facts not straight.
Someone from the Horinko campaign knocked on my door Tuesday as well.
Since my post referenced above, I have also gotten a Hunt mailing.
Why was a comment deleted regarding a postage number used incorrectly. Have you done any follow up regarding that VA Blogger?
Yes, the situation was resolved.
If Anna Lee is in Horinko’s camp, that doesn’t bode well for her conservative credentials either. Isn’t she (Lee) the one that used to attend district meetings with a button that had a big “C” on it with a “universal not” sign over it?
I just did research AND the Permit #361 is actually the RPV Permit. So is RPV supporting Nance? Is that permit going to be allowed by all campaigns? If not, that is a problem that they used an RPV permit without the other campaigns being allowed to.
Rtwng Extrmst..Congratulations. Only you would remember that button!
Do you have to wait until the 14th to start your “on the job training”.
They didn’t use any RPV permit. The mailer says “Paid for and authorized by Friends of Will Nance”, and they are the only organization involved. I have corrected the mistake and the situation has been resolved. That’s as many comments I’m going to allow about this.
Why won’t you allow more discussions about mail fraud? Are you working for Nance?
[...] 37 Spec Elec Reflects Va Dem Problem As noted in this round up the GOP in Virginia Senate 37 have three candidates (Marianne Horinko, Steve Hunt, Will [...]
*Sigh.*
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Sorry to get you worked up, Ben, but 1) No, it’s nothing even close to resembling anything that could be mistaken for “fraud”. The Nance campaign paid for a mailer (stop the presses!) and the RPV couldn’t have been less involved. I corrected my post, but if it makes everybody happy, I could just take down the entire thing; the objective of this blog is to inform so I don’t know how that would make things better, but if that’s your endgame, I’ll just go ahead and do it.
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And 2) I’m not working for any of the campaigns, and you can even ask around and confirm that if you want.
Mail Fraud?
Please.
Sounds like it’s going to be an interesting couple of months over there in the 37th.
Not really. Looks like the firehouse primary is set for December 1.
Can anyone link to video or audio of the 3 candidates speaking? I’d like to actually hear them in action… might help break the deadlock in mind.
There’s video of Steve Hunt’s kickoff at the links I provided in the post. I’m not aware yet of any video for the other two, though you can see Nance in person at the meet and greet on Sunday.
Not Larry Sabato, I would not call it “Mail Fraud” but using RPV’s permit without their permission is certainly a violation of the Republican Party’s policy. Even if they paid for the mailer, if they used the Permit its different. Something seems weird about this all.
Every time Ben pretends to be a man it is an example of “male fraud.”
How many times do I have to say that they didn’t use the permit?
they didnt use the rpv permit. but they certainly made a big blunder…signaling an amateur hour at the nance camp. they did use a non profit permit number then hastily placed stamps over the permit manually after the post office rejected it. So no, rpv didnt pay for it, but it was a horrible mistake that seasoned campaigns would never make. this doesnt look good for the nance camp, at all.
Of course that mistake begs the question….is nance ready to run a hotly contestes race that hundreds of thousands of $$ will be poured into? primaries are about winnability in the following election….and nance isnt convincing me that he is able to beat a well known dem in the district, especially after these amateur mistakes.
I don’t see this being a hotly contested race with hundreds of thousands being spent. Right now, there isn’t even a Dem considering the race, and the primary will be over in two weeks. There just doesn’t seem to be a lot of time for that kind of a money intensive race.
Maybe….its going to be interesting. It could be conteted, maybe not, but I dont want to field a weak/inexperienced candidate and “hope” its going to be an easy road. Better to be safe than sorry i guess.
Horinko used a quote on a mailer from Jim Lemunyon that was not even close to being accurate. Jim is not happy with her and his quote has been taken down from her website. Just another long line of bizarre mis-statements and behavior from her. We are in serious trouble if she gets the nomination.
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