I am up in Northern Virginia, and having caught up with people across the area, I am feeling REALLY good about Fairfax in 2011. We have a VERY good chance of the BOS turning to the GOP, with a new GOP Chairman.
Thoughts? What’re you hearing?
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Jul 07th by Too Conservative
Why is that? Explain which three Supervisor’s seats you’ll flip along with how you’ll keep the three seats Republicans currently have, since you’ve lost several special elections this year that you should have won that are in those three Republican Supervisor’s districts.
I agree. I’d be curious to hear what seats ppl think we might win. I think its possible to win maybe 2 seats if their open seats…maybe Lee and Mount Vernon….MAYBE…
Valid question…I tend to think there will be less problem holding the current seats, but I am interested in hearing the TC gameplan for Red Fairfax. Where are the gains coming from? Who takes out Bulova, and on what issues?
NJSM,
for starters, unless the right wing screws with Frey the GOP will hold all 3 of their seats. Assuming the GOP runs good local candidates with deep community ties and not just self funded ideologues, we should be able to flip Dranesville and Mt. Vernon (assuming Hyland retires which is the rumor). Providence could be a wild card. It voted in a GOP school board member (albeit with no ‘R’ next to her name which helped her). Another rumor is that Smyth the providence supervisor is headed out. I dont think she has done any fundraising which is unusual for someone that wants to run again. something else that will help the GOP in providence is a split that has come about in the Dems there. as evdent with the disaster in the jennison race. connolly will surely put up some hack like jennison while the other faction of the party (that are not too fond of connolly either) will put up a charley hall type, and charley hall may even run himself.
it is possible, but it will take a lot of work. it will also take a really strong chair candidate. so far, the only person to emerge is marianne horinko. frankly the gop doesnt have anyone else that poses as a viable option. she can fundraise, and she has good experience. there was a rumor that tom davis would jump in but i’d be surprised because i dont think he wants to run the risk of getting beat in a primary because that would be really embarrassing. also, from a spuerficial stand point, two women running for chair would be interesting. i just wish marianne horinko had more community involvement like cook/bulova/herrity.
anyone hearing anything else?
Republicans couldn’t pick up open Delegates seats in districts like Providence, Lee and Mt. Vernon when you had the wind at your back in 2009. Why would those areas vote for a Republican next year?
As far as Republican holds, what’s the Republican plan for holding Braddock? Democrats will have an actual English-speaking candidate this time out and Bulova will be beating the bushes hard in her home territory to bulk up her own reelection numbers, whoever the Dem candidate is there will get a lot of free campaign help from her. Cook hasn’t done anything good or bad since he’s been on the Board, so in a general election with Dems working hard vs. in a special like last year, he’s not very safe.
NJSM,
1) Hyland was not a good candidate and his campaign staff (post Darius) was not much better. That seat should have gone GOP, but Keam just had a better race. That and the pretty boy Steve Shannon was on the AG ballot, I haven’t taken a look at the numbers since last Nov., but I believe Shannon’s home precinct is what sealed the deal for Keam.
2) I didnt say Lee was a pick up, McKay is safe assuming he runs again.
3) I specifically said, assuming Hyland retires, Mt. Vernon is a possible pick up. Bob McDonnell lost that district by less then 1%, and that was with good dem turnout as well. If Hyland runs again, he should keep it safe dem.
4) Holding Braddock is simple. John Cook has done well as a supervisor and there is really no major reason that he wont win again. Bulova will be working Braddock hard to keep her own seat, but she was working her machine during the special and backed Moon, we all know what happened there. Bulova could very easily win Braddock at the same time as Cook wins too. Split ticket voting is very common for local races.
Scott Surovell won the open seat for Delegate in what is mostly Mt. Vernon pretty easily. If Republican hopes are “it’s an open seat so maybe we’ll win it” then I’m not worried at all. All Cook has done is vote against the majority of the Board on almost every issue and Braddock is still a fairly strong Democratic area. So, again, beating Moon by a point or three in a special election is good but it will be hard for him to keep his seat.
Who knows what the Petulant Man-Child Herrity will do in Springfield. He’ll probably run as Chairman, so Republicans will have to devote effort and resources to defending an open seat in Springfield that should stay Republican, but only with lots of work.
Doubt Herrity will run for Chairman. Horinko supported him heavily for Congress, I think Pat will return the favor and support her for Chairman.
Also, I don’t think it will be “lots of work” to keep Springfield…the GOP won it in 2007, despite a bad year for us.
Horinko, the “Committed Conservative” has about as much chance of beating Sharon Bulova as the Petulant Man-Child did of beating Fimian. I guess that losing a primary to guy who loses the general election to replace someone from their own party does qualify you to run for even higher office if you’re a Republican in Fairfax.
Still, I would love to hear Vince’s explanation for his original post. Perhaps he knows of a couple of Republican candidates who plan on paying him for media services and is just banging the drum a little on the early side.
NJSM,
You are an idiot. Scott Surovell lost the Mt. Vernon portion of the 44th district during the general. He won because of Lee district. Before you post another idiotic statement, please fact-check your words.
Also anyone who says Lee District is winnable for a Republican is much stupider than NJSM. I mean that is just stupid. Thats like saying Springfield is the most democratic district in Fairfax.
Bunch of idiots on this blog these days.
Idiotsyouall
NotJohn, Surovell’s largest margins in the 44th came from two precincts in Lee District, which happen to be the two largest precincts in the 44th. Albo won re-election quite convincingly, and the 45th was never seriously challenged. McDonnell lost Mount Vernon by 1%, and Herrity won Mount Vernon by a little bit more than that. With turnout in an off-off year expected to be somewhere in between those two elections, I’d say an open seat with two credible challengers is a toss-up at best for you guys.
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There was no open Delegate seat in Lee last year (perhaps you’re thinking Danny Smith vs Kaye Kory, which is based mostly in Mason District). And while a little less than half of the 35th is in Providence, its tough to consider that race indicative of anything. First, having Shannon on the ballot creates an unusual situation. Second, Keam ran a great campaign. Finally, Patty Reed makes a great case for the idea that Providence can be won, considering she ran when turnout was higher than a usual School Board election, and she outpaced Bob McDonnell by about 3,000 votes, so you can’t even claim she rode anyone’s coattails.
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Taking over the Board will be difficult, especially if our incumbents face completely unnecessary primary challenges, as is the current rumor floating around. But picking up Dranesville, Mount Vernon, and either or both of Providence or the Chairman’s seat isn’t unrealistic.
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Also, the Board could decide to add a South County Magesterial District and just screw everyone up.
Redestricting remains, and Jeff McKay is in charge of that (I believe) and I suspect some tough border movements. But here is how I set things
1. The two best districts to flip are Drainesville and Providence . . . but it depends on the candidates. I’ve heard former Herndon councilmen Dennis Hustch is in the running for Drainesville, while Lilian Vogel is in for Providence. I personally want to see Patrick McDade run in Providence, he’s an active grassroots Republican with some name-ID from his impressive underdog race for Com. attorney.
2. Marianne Horinko may not beat Sharon Bulova, but she won’t be a placeholder candidate like Gary Baise. Horinko has a ton of money and will make Sharon work hard. She has a lot of things going for her and will make Sharon work on her seat instead of having time to organize evferyone else.
3. John Cook. He is, in my mind, the best member of the Board. Keeping him in his seat should be the top priority of the local party almost everything else. Every other race in Braddock will have a Democrat incumbent so in order to keep competitive on the Board we need to keep Cook and keep Braddock. If he wins reelection, he’s our nominee in 2015.
4. Primaries for Frey and Herrity. Frey deserves to go for several reasons. Its not for his vote on the Islamic institute, I think that was a false issue that would have had un-intended consequences for Catholic and other parochial schools. The day-laborer center in Centreville is just nonsense that cannot be explained. I used to live in that part of Centreville and its bad out there, especially with a public library right across the street. Also, the Sully operation has been terrible for a decade. In both the Herrity and Hunt campaigns, Sully underwhelmed badly and could have cost these guys elections. As for Herrity, some right-winger feeling their oats might try and take on Herrity, but it would be both silly and counter-productive. Herrity is a good Republican on the board and there is no reason to take him down. There seems to be real harmony right now after the primary so I think some of the hotter heads have cooled.
6. What happens with Connolly. If Keith Fimian defeats him, I think you will see a new kind of energy in the local party that goes well past last year. If Keith wins it shows that on a local level the folks have lost faith with the Democrats and we could conceivably take the board 5-4 (Springfield, Sully, Braddock, Drainesville, and Providence).
Anyways, just a few thoughts.
oops, by 6 I mean 5
So, your plan is to replace two current Republican Supervisors with more conservative ones and flip two Democratic districts with incumbents. Again, where is the math to back up this plan? Who are the candidates? Guys who have lost either general elections or primaries? A teabagger from the Herndon town council who got voted out just a couple of months ago?
You guys continue to trumpet Taliban Bob’s victory while ignoring the evidence of the previous 4 general elections, the couple of specials last year, and the specials this year. Other than picking up the school board seat in Providence, what have Republicans done there the last 10 years? You had plenty of open seats last November – Keam, Korey, Surovell – which Dems all won.
I just wanted to say that it’s fine with me if Republicans want to think that Dems and Bulova went all out during the Cook/Moon election in Braddock. Because I was there, and I know what really happened, and it just isn’t reality. Half of our precinct captains were away, we were all completely exhausted, our fundraising was tapped out from the constant build up to the 2008 elections, we had a divided primary with no time to rebuild, and one of our strongest campaigners had a death in the family the weekend for the election.
Honestly, looking back on this, I’m surprised it was even close.
But that was then, and this is now.
“Still, I would love to hear Vince’s explanation for his original post. Perhaps he knows of a couple of Republican candidates who plan on paying him for media services and is just banging the drum a little on the early side.”
LOL. I hate to agree with John (especially when I’m agreeing with him on downplaying GOP chances) but I just don’t see how 2011 ends with an incoming Republican led board. I could see Dranesville flipping and maybe – maybe Mt. Vernon.
Also, primarying Frey would be idiotic. You could probaby keep the seat but it would be a huge waste of resources that could be sent elsewhere.
NJM, I said we should replace ONE supervisor, not both. Frey brings nothing to the table but Herrity certainly does. And I believe Husch did not run for reelection, so I don’t think he was defeated.
Patty Reed proved a Republican could win in Providence and Linda Smyth is a poor poor candidate. Also, Cook’s win was quite unpredictable.
As for the last 10 years, all good things must come to an end, right?
Gretchen, I heard the same thing because Moon was NOT the candidate Connolly and Bulova wanted. But he still won.
I do not believe that Tom Davis will want his old job back. I do believe that it will be very difficult for republicans to gain seats on the BOS, but it is possible. I hope that Pat stays right where he is and runs again for Congress in 2012.
Is Tom Davis still considered a Republican?
Doubt he’d run in 2012. Pat’s a smart guy. He’s not going to run in an Obama year. If Gerry doesn’t lose this time around, I think we’re stuck with him until he retires and will be forced to run crazy candidates (like dem candidates when Tom Davis was in office)
For once, I think Gerry’s right stressing the importance of community ties, this might hurt us with our nomination being Keith this Fall. While Keith brings an incredible resume to the table, service to the local community isn’t on that list, hence the clifton situation. I would love to flip the BOS from the top to the bottom but I agree with the early posts, we lost delegate and senate seats where we needed to win to set the table for this take over you suggest. So what’s the backup plan??? Will this Clifton School issue still have tread in 2011 when SBoard candidates are up again? With Bulova at the top of the ticket, it will be no easy race for Supervisor Cook who brings a strong resume to the table and a record of continued service. so what’s the plan? Is Bulova strong enough to carry a ticket or will it be each to their own. Tom Davis could carry our ticket… and finally give us someone to vote for, and not against. Victoria
Dennis Husch will not win Dranesville. The GOP would be best served by another candidate (and there are plenty in Dranesville who could beat Foust). Husch is a very polarizing figure who placed sixth the last time he stood for re-election to the Herndon Town Council. Rumor is he retired because he acknowledged he could not win his next race, and even his friends encouraged him to step down. Aside from that, the electoral math in Dranesville makes a Herndon candidate a long-shot from the get-go, regardless of party. McLean is a huge voting bloc.
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Providence is the district to watch. Will the Democrats allow Linda Smyth to hang on to Tysons by herself, or carve it up among a couple of districts to get a piece of the action? I doubt Linda retires, but I think she’ll face a pretty strong challenge there. The stakes are very high right now in Tysons.
Interesting that snarky twit like local gop would call Shannon a pretty boy.
Frey certainly should be primaried. This is one very creepy guy who does not represent the community interests. Anyone who runs will beat him, even an illegal alien from Centreville.
Can’t wait to Horinko take Bulova. Should be a great cat fight.
Anyone who wants to snuggle with Gerry Connolly this weekend should go eat ice cream with him at Little Rocky Run Rec Center 3. Let him feel the love. Maybe there will be a tea party.
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