More Redistricting Scenarios

By Loudoun Insider

When will this end???!!!  New proposals include one from the large HOAs in the county, and a new number of supervisor seats by Burton (first it was six, now it’s ten).  I like Burton thinking outside the box since it seems the current number is tough to manage, but I think that ship has sailed.

One thing that stands out is the raw politics inherent in Stevens Miller’s proposals (see Miller Plans 2, 3, 4 here).  He’s obviously trying to protect his BFF on the BOS, Andrea McGimsey, who now seems to realize that her only chance for re-election is to run away from her current constituents as fast as possible!  Miller’s new scenarios send McGimsey’s district west into Ashburn Village, with an odd eastern extension to pick up her current residence.  These scenarios put her in with no declared Republican or Democratic candidate.  This sceanrio also might be enough to convince former candidate Republican/”Independent” Jack Ryan to jump in, setting up the best chance for McGimsey to stick around. 

These scenarios also set up a district for John Stevens, who would be pitted against the nearly inevitable selection of Suzanne Volpe by the LCRC.  Stevens definitely has higher ambitions but is not going to primary McGimsey.  This sets him up with probably an easy victory.

The LCRC also worked up their own redistricting plan that went up for an hour of heated discussion at the last meeting that went nowhere.  Just as that plan will go nowhere on a BOS with five Dems and two Republicans.  LCRC plan, meet the trash bin of history.


Comments

  • Barbara Munsey says:

    LI, I need to look more closely, but at first blush this is pretty interesting from Miller–yes, a district for Stevens that separates him from McG, yes, McG protected everywhere (to the degree that Ronis is put in with Buona in one, yes?).

    Questions I have: is Miller drawing a fallback set of plans where he can run from his Broadlands house for a supe seat if the Senate districts are not to his liking? Is he drawing a supe seat for his wife?

    Lord deliver us.

  • BlackOut says:

    Seems to me this whole thing gets a lot easier if we ignore where existing BOS members live. Let the chips fall where they may, redistricting for the benefit and protection of incumbents seems very silly to me. Isn’t government about the people and not about who represents them?

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    Interesting thoughts, Barb.

    I agree absolutely, BO, the whole incumbent protection thing is a convoluted conflicted nightmare. It should be done away with. They’re haveing the same issues in PWC:

    http://www.bvbl.net/index.php/2011/02/27/pwc-redistricting-outlook-get-ready-for-more-of-the-same/

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    And this excerpt from the LTM really sums up how McGimsey feels about the process!!!

    “Supervisor Andrea McGimsey (D-Potomac) said she had been contacted by several residents who wanted a 10 district scenario, but she was unsure of whether she supported the idea.

    “I told them I would support the discussion, but I’m not sure if I’m interested,” McGimsey said.”

    Somehow I think she thinks this about all of the plans in regard to how citizens feel about them – it’s all about her and her position, especially since she wants to run away from her current constituents.

  • Loudoun Lady says:

    My sincerest apologies to those residents westward in Ashburn Village IF this strange Stevens Miller proposal gets adopted. The best we can hope for is that Miller will campaign with his pal Andrea in her new district while wearing his “Champagne of Beers” t-shirt.

  • Barbara Munsey says:

    Has anyone written to whoever controls “The Simpsons” imagery to get permission to use Milhouse Van Houten by anyone running against Miller for anything?

    Wherever Andrea ends up (I mean in this county, on this planet, this year, in this life and not in some parallel universe or regression-therapy hallucination), the mind REELS at the possibilities for campaigning.

  • […] LI has some observations worth reading. […]

  • edmundburkenator says:

    Isn’t there some kind of plurality system (I don’t know what it’s called) that we can use? Put everyone on the ballot and you can vote for three people. Top nine vote-getters are in, the person with the most votes gets to be chair, second place is vice chair and were done.

    Maybe we put everyone on Jeopardy and decide that way.

    Using geography to figure this out is so Old World.

  • Frobisher says:

    Count me as a supporter of the HOA plan. And kudos to those communities for coming together. I read on Supervisor Miller’s blog that he’s looking at that plan because it has some merit. I agree and I’m glad Miller is looking at it. No plans are perfect, but that’s the best one I’ve seen.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    I don’t know, ed, I am still a fan of district representation, and just as with Burton’s proposals for more or less districts, it is far too late for any radical change.

    Frobisher, that would indeed be a change for Miller, who so far seems to be doing his best to piss off the largest communities that he would need to do well in if he runs for the expected southern Loudoun new Senate seat.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    Miller responds to the incumbent protection clause. I hear what he’s saying, but don’t buy it, especially when the Dems are playing politics with the maps.

    http://stevensrmiller.com/wordpress/?p=961#comments

  • vacliff says:

    Dems got a plan, the Repubs got a plan.
    The HOA plan was put together by residents who simply want to keep their communities together. Let’s start with this plan that serves the RESIDENTS and not either political party. To my knowledge, this plan is endorsed by HOAs in the Dulles, Broad Run, and Potomac districts.
    It may need some tweaking, but it’s better than what is being offered up be either party.

  • Frylock says:

    John Stevens on the BOS? ROTFLMAO!

  • New Voice says:

    Not so ridiculous about John Stevens when McGimsey is the alternative.

  • G.Stone says:

    Vacliff

    The Republican plan is the HOA plan. There will be some minimal suggested tweaking in order to keep communities if interest together. The HOA plan is as far as I am concerned, the best out there. The Ex-Com met last evening and everyone voted to promote the HOA plan. We as a committee are more intersted in what is right for our communities rather than submitting some gerry mandered plan like those offered by the Democrats. I was very proud of the sub committee that worked on the issue, the ex-com for their serious deliberations and our Chairman for bring it all to a swift conclusion. The LCRC can be very proud !

  • Matt Letourneau says:

    Yes, let me echo what Greg just said. The LCRC’s will have one suggestion which will allow the Sugarland Run HOA to stay together–because our highest priority was communities of interest. The HOA plan is fair, does not disadvantage any party or incumbent, and is by far the most logical in terms of governance. The HOA plan is NOT the most advantageous for Republicans neccessarily, but it makes the most sense for the County. I’m very pleased with the decision that was made and I’d like to thank the redistricting committee, my fellow Ex-Com members and the certainly the Chairman for taking the concerns of Dulles residents and homeowners from across the County seriously.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    David Ramadan and Matt LeTourneau deserve the bulk of the credit for this for raising the issue forcefully. Why the other plan was developed behind closed doors and foisted on members without time for review and comment is incomprehensible. Huge fail on the part of LCRC upper management.

  • vacliff says:

    G.Stone-
    I believe what you are saying is that the LCRC have endorsed the HOA Plan.
    It was not created by them or with them in mind (or the LCDC for that matter).
    It was created/endorsed by representatives of several “communities of interest” that felt their communities were not of interest to anyone!
    If adopted, it will help make our elected leaders realize that the HOAs are significant, need to be considered, and can have influence. I’ve been to too many meetings where HOAs, some of whom have 15-20,000 residents are treated subserviant to towns of a few thousand.

  • Jack Ryan says:

    LI – huge fail is when you make a poor decision. LCRC Chairman Sell led this effort, listened to all and made the best decision for the LCRC. The subcommittee had a lot of talent, did a tremendous job and should be thanked fro their great work. The excom members provided valuabel input to bring everything together to make a good decision. That is a success my friend. I will be kind and not point out your many failures…

  • G.Stone says:

    Vacliff

    maybe I did not make myself clear, sorry. Yes we adopted their plan. It was a good plan and there was no need to create another. It did need minor tweaking as matt mentioned. This was to be expected even by those who did the work to create it. It was good work.

  • Loudoun Insider says:

    Sorry, Jack, I don’t buy it. The plan they put together in secret was basically thrown in the trash and the committee ended up supporting a totally different plan. I do think the right decision was reached in the end, politically it’s a huge plus to back the HOA plan, but the process to get there was a mess. Too many people were caught unaware by the proposed plan that is now dead, and that is part of the reason it is dead. Not a good process.

  • Frylock says:

    New voice – I agree McGimsey is not any better, but a school board member getting elected to the BOS is very difficult. I heard someone mention that it hasn’t happened in Loudoun for over 20 years. It’s not the ideal starting point of a successful political career path! Maybe decent school board members like Bob Ohneiser or Joe Guzman could pull it off, but not John Stevens.

  • Mmmmm says:

    So, in that HOA map, most of Leesburg goes into Catoctin? Interesting idea.

  • New Voice says:

    The HOA Plan looks like the most sensible way to draw the districts. Kudos to the LCRC for endorsing it. Any chance the LCDC will come around to do the right thing?

    Frylock, true about the “political career path”, and Stevens is too much a Hatrick adorer to be much use to the voters but the chatter coming from McGimsey’s district is that those who held their noses and supported her last time are actively seeking to get her out. Too bad for her, the best redistricting plan leaves her with most of her current district. Maybe the best scenario for the people of her district is that the LCRC puts up someone reasonable and electable against her.

  • Frobisher says:

    New Voice, I wouldn’t hold out much hope for the LCDC doing good by the people of Loudoun. The only two Democrats that have a streak of moderation to them are Miller and Buckley.

  • Loudounite says:

    Frobisher – did I actually read that Miller has a streak of moderation to him? If he wasn’t the face of the LCDC redristricting brainchild, I might tend to agree.

  • vacliff says:

    Loudounite-
    I would remind you that Miller did not create this plan. He reviewed a plan created by someone else, made a few tweaks that fixed a few big mistakes, and gave it back to staff.
    Staff than gave it the name “The Miller Plan”.

  • Loudounite says:

    vacliff – HE presented it to staff — don’t blame staff! Staff had no idea where it came from. Why isn’t it called what it is, “the LCDC plan”? Their Chair made that quite clear at the Board meeting.

  • vacliff says:

    Not “blaming” anyone. Staff simply got that revised plan from Miller, so they put “Miller Plan” on it. To intimate that this plan was the sole creation of Miller is incorrect. That was my point.
    Miller has the explanation on one of his blog posts.

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