Finally, the October Surpise.
October is virtually down the drain and it turns out that the election-bending “surprise” will not be Osama’s head in a banker’s box lined with dry ice and bubble wrap, but rather a decision of the New Jersey Supreme Court.Â The new talking points for our team, from the President to Senator Allen to Rick Santorum to they guy running for dog-catcher in Dogpatch is that we’re FOR one-man/one woman marriages.Â It has come to that.
Yesterday in Iowa, the President previewed the new theme by describing the split NJ decision as on that “raises doubts about the institution of marriage.”Â Â The President went on to say thatÂ traditional marriage is an institution thatÂ “must be defended.”
More marriages are threatened by men failing to put their dirty socks in the hamper than this New Jersey decision (let’s hope ViriginiansÂ don’t decide to amend our Constitution to regulate housekeeping habits).Â But the balloon has gone up, nothing else has worked, and you’re going to be hearing a lot about “defending marriage” from here on out toÂ Election Day.Â By the middle of the coming week, Iraq will be gone, sex and corruption in Congress will beÂ gone, fiscal responsibilityÂ issues will beÂ gone and we’ll all be madly shadow-boxing against “activist judges” who seek to “threaten marriage.”Â
My guess is that this is one issueÂ that can break the fall of enoughÂ Republican candidates to ensure continued control of the Senate and make things close in the House results.Â It’s an absolutely irresistible issue to demagogue.Â It will distract voters fromÂ all these other issues that have inflicted so much damage on Republican candidates.Â It will alsoÂ tieÂ Democrats in knots as they try to explainÂ why the intricacies of New Jersey statutes andÂ state constitutional provisionsÂ have little impactÂ on any single heterosexual marriage anywhere in New Jersey or elsewhere.
So, the OctoberÂ Surprise arrived in the nick of time.Â My forecast is that Republicans hold the Senate, that GOP losses in the House will be far less than the positively giddy MSM have talked themselves into, that there will be no losses in the Virginia GOP Congressional delegation (includingÂ Drake and Allen) and that Marshall-Newman (the “Defense of Marriage” amendment) will passÂ by about 2,000,000 to 2. (Judge Wikinson and IÂ being the only constitutional conservatives around whoseÂ marriages are apparently not threatened by anything that a constitution can control.)Â
Glad we dodged that bullet.Â On to victory in 2008.