Mason-Dixon: McDonnell up 8

By VA Blogger

Mason-Dixon’s first outing in Virginia this cycle shows similar results to other polls. Conducted 10/6-8 of 625 likely voters:


Bob McDonnell: 48%
Creigh Deeds: 40%


I’m not sure if I’m going to get the actual poll results, as opposed to media accounts of it (here and here, among others), but I’m able to pick up that McDonnell, as always is leading Independents 47%-33%. I also pieced together that McDonnell’s image is at 45%/23%, while 30% view Deeds unfavorably.


Over a month ago, I posited about a “Creigh Deeds Ceiling“, showing that no polls showed him above 43% and claiming that his current strategy would never boost him above 48%. In the five weeks since that post, Deeds has gotten the following percentage in polls:




That 46% is actually 42% without Rasmussen’s leaders, leaving the Washington Post as the sole outlier, which they’ve since corrected (showing Deeds at 44%). Now just over three weeks away, Deeds is still stuck at the same 40%-43% that he’s largely been at since he won the primary. That’s the downside of running a campaign focused solely on your opponent: you don’t allow for much movement of your own numbers.



  • Brian S says:

    Time is running out for Deeds. Unless he starts making some progress in Northern Virginia, his efforts downstate are going to come to no avail.
    If I were a Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates, I would be sweating bullets at this point.

  • FairfaxGardener says:

    Here’s to Democrat HOD candidates success on the bullet sweating weight loss diet. I certainly hope that they can decomplicate their lives by putting the stressful business of public office in their past.

  • Eric the 1/2 troll says:

    Can you wake me up when the election is over and TC can cease with the McDonnell/Deeds blow-by-blow?

  • kelley in virginia says:

    Eric, would you rather read about Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize or the Washington Redskins? those are your other choices.

  • Brian S says:

    What can I say? I like reading a new story every day about Republicans winning in Virginia. It’s a topic of endless fascination to me.

  • Eric the 1/2 troll says:


    Given that the Obama Peace Prize garnered over 100 comments versus 5 so far on this thread, it would seem I am not alone with my boredom on this subject.

    Brian, I am not surprised at your fascination with the subject.

  • VA Blogger says:

    Posts about polls don’t get many comments, because there’s not much to say about them; what you see is what you get. However, comments aren’t the only indication of whether a subject is “popular” or even important.

  • Ryan says:

    Eric, if you don’t like reading about what’s really important, (i.e. McDonnell crushing Deeds in the polls…) Then only read the posts about worthless things like who won the suedo-peace prize.

    I for my part am very excited to see new polls nearly everyday with Democrats soundly loosing.

  • Virginia will soon have a full-time Governor again. This makes me ecstatic.

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