McDonnell Up 14

By Guest Poster

New CNU/Virginian Pilot/WVEC poll released earlier today.

Bob McDonnell: 45%

Creigh Deeds: 31%

State of the race with 15 days to go?


Comments

  • Loudoun Lady says:

    21% undecided, but impressive nonetheless.

  • That’s WVEC, not WVEW.

    I’ll withhold judgment until I see more of the poll.

  • Lovettsville Lady says:

    It seems to me that anyone who is undecided at this point probably won’t bother to vote.

  • kelley in virginia says:

    Lovettsville: you & i would think that anyone undecided really doesn’t care; its just that they don’t care enough. There are so many people out here who don’t even know there is campaign. They will get their “instructions” less than 1 week before the election. Are there enough of these people to turn the election? no.

  • FedUp says:

    Deeds would have to win 3 out of 4 of those undecided voters. Fat chance when all he has to offer voters is the same old tired policies from the Warner and Kaine administrations.

  • Michael says:

    No surprise – the electorate has had its fill of the IBOBs of the world.

  • Dan says:

    FedUp said:
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    “Deeds would have to win 3 out of 4 of those undecided voters. Fat chance when all he has to offer voters is the same old tired policies from the Warner and Kaine administrations.”
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    Have you looked at any recent polling data on the popularity of Kaine and Warner? Both men are quite popular with the Virginia electorate. And nine months ago the people of Virginia elected Warner to the Senate with 65% of their votes. There is ample objective evidence that both men are held in high regard by the majority of Virginians and no evidence to support your assertion that Virginians have rejected them or the policies they pursued in office. I am sure that the reverse is true among folks who share your political viewpoint. But that is hardly the vast majority of the voting public.
    .
    Clearly McDonnell is ahead in the polls. I’m sure there are many reasons for that. It will be interesting to do a postmortem of this election and see what can factually be ascertained from the results. I certainly don’t believe it is because people have turned on a dime with regard to the positive opinion they have of the Warner administration. And, while I am sure that it is taken as an article of faith among folks who think Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck are fonts of perfect wisdom that any Republican victory on any level in 2009 is proof positive that the nation rejects the Obama administration and is ready to rush back into the arms of the proven administrative magnificence of the Republicans, I kinda doubt that is the case.
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    I think we are going to find much more mundane and garden variety trends and political forces are at play here. Having said that, I think this poll is a bit of an outlier. Everyone else has it as a single digit contest with margins of error around 4 percent. I’m still betting on no more than a two point contest.
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    We’ll see in a couple of weeks.

  • Cato the Elder says:

    Don’t conflate Kaine and Warner. I’ve seen some numbers on Kaine which are closer to the Obama numbers than Warner. The former is a do-nothing, feckless absentee Governor. The latter is a Virginia institution and likely Senator for life.
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    “I’m still betting on no more than a two point contest.”
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    I’ll take that bet. I’d be shocked if this were a double digit race but the statistician in me is looking for a 4 – 4.5 margin of victory, presuming a linear trajectory of events.

  • FedUp says:

    Dan – Warner had the good fortune of serving during, arguably, the most prosperous four years in Virginia history. The housing boom was just taking off in 2002 and tax revenues soared during his term. He was even able to raise taxes, but people did not care because they were blinded by their newfound wealth and were busy spending their home equity loans. He spent like a drunken sailor, but was never exposed. Bozo the Clown would have had a high approval rating as governor during those boom years!

    Kaine carried on his policies, but was not quite so lucky. Now, after 8 years of reckless spending, the bill is due.

  • Dan says:

    FEDUP, speaking of reckless spending, the Bush administration was recently being discussed in another thread here. The terrible shock to the economy as a result of the attacks of 9/11 was being used as an alibi for the poor performance of that administration.
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    Now you are telling me those same years were so good economically that it masked the ill effects of what you believe were Warner’s misguided policies. So I am to believe that those years were difficult economically and were boom years all at the same time. They were boom years when the argument is being made that Democrats are profligate spenders and they were understandably difficult economic times when attempting to paper over Republican mismanagement. A person could get very dizzy from the spin.
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    I think that if a consistent set of facts and an accurate recollection of reality is used then one would conclude that valid criticisms can be made of officeholders of both parties. At any rate, 65% of Virginia voters seem to disagree with your assessment of the Warner administration.

  • Dan says:

    Speaking of bills being due, how exactly is Bob McDonnell going to pay for the massive promises he is making to Northern Virginia with regard to transportation projects? If you believe his patter about doing it without raising ANY tax by ANY amount and not instituting ANY new taxes then you are truly a gullible soul.
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    Or perhaps you propose that we don’t engage in reckless spending on road projects? Just let the economic engine that drives the commonwealth get strangled in traffic?
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    As long as the folks can happily chant, “No New Taxes” and pretend they are fiscal conservatives everything will be just fine.
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    I’m sure North Carolina will be happy to welcome all the businesses you drive away from Virginia.

  • Michael says:

    Dan – he’s selling the ABC stores, looking to drill for oil off VA’s shores, maybe he’ll get rid of the waste, fraud and abuse that Obama is going to find to pay for his gov. run healthcare….

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “[Bobby Mac is] selling the ABC stores, looking to drill for oil off VA’s shores, maybe he’ll get rid of the waste, fraud and abuse that Obama is going to find to pay for his gov. run healthcare….”
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    No, he’s not going to sell the ABC stores, Mikey. The last bill proposing such failed in committee 14 – 3. Keep dreamin’.
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    Drill for oil off VA?!?! ROTFLMAO!!! There is a 0% chance that the Democarts in Richmond will go for it. That GOP fantasy is DOA, Mikey; its just not going to happen.
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    Just how do you imagine Bobby Mac is going to impact policies in Washington, Mikey? Oh, I know: He’s not.
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    Face facts, Mikey: If Bobby Mac wins, he’ll make zero progress and we’ll elect another Democratic governor in 2013.

  • Dan says:

    Okay, so he is going to sell the ABC stores. I think taking the state out of the whiskey selling business is a good idea for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with transportation. But that sale will raise a very small percentage of the money needed to pay for all that McDonnell is promising. And he is promising one hell of a lot this election season.
    .
    Also, the annual revenue that those stores generate has to be replaced. How does McDonnell propose to replace that money? New taxes? Smoke and mirrors? Catching that leprechaun and seizing his pot of gold? (and would that be a leprechaun tax?)
    .
    If he isn’t going to replace that revenue then what is he going to cut from the budget that we will no longer have the money to pay for. These are fair questions to ask? Why is no one asking them?
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    I am not naive. I understand he is promising things to win an election. But isn’t there a line you cross when the bullshit gets so thick that even partisans must cringe at the audacity of it?

  • Dan says:

    Are there any credible numbers regarding what the state might realize from offshore oil leases? I haven’t seen any. Certainly not as part of this campaign.
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    It would be interesting to see what the potential income really is. I don’t think you are going to get a consensus that we should drill off of our coast, but since that is one of the ways McDonnell is supposedly going to pay for all of our wildest dreams, it would be good to know what the real numbers are.

  • FedUp says:

    Dan said – “…speaking of reckless spending, the Bush administration….”
    How easily we forget the USA was fighting 2 fullscale wars during the Bush administration. If you take away the hundreds of billions a year spent on that, then the deficit was not bad at all.
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    Warner is too far removed from the current budget problems to take the blame and remains popular. He is much more likable than the confrontational Kaine, who road into office on Warner’s coattails. I agree with Cato that Kaine is not popular. Deeds won’t be riding on his coattails!

  • Michael says:

    Dan – offsore drilling of VA could provide billions to the state. The state will make out selling the liquor stores – the gov. does not profit from this, they don’t make the liquor, they are just the middleman. Bob will eliminate all those state costs/jobs to run the stores. There is another state already with an agreement on the offshore drilling that is making a lot of money doing so.

    Bottom line – McDonnell needs to fire about 30% of the government largess – union employees. The people can’t afford the huge bureacracy that Kaine and Warner put in place. Time to dismantle it, and the sooner the better.

    IBOB – there will come a point when it will not be worth working anymore due to the excessive taxation and over-regulation. When people stop paying and moving (with their wealth)out of state or country is when you will see IBOB in line for his $250 check.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “Also, the annual revenue that those stores generate has to be replaced. How does McDonnell propose to replace that money? New taxes? Smoke and mirrors? Catching that leprechaun and seizing his pot of gold? (and would that be a leprechaun tax?)”
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    They’re going w/smoke & mirrors, Dan: Supply-side economics. ‘Ol Bobby Mac believes increased availability (supermarkets, Big Box Stores, Discount clubs, etc.) will so drive demand for booze that the $100 million can be made-up through fees & tax revenues.
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    It’s nice to see that the family values party (tongue firm in cheek) wants to dramatically increase alcohol consumption in the Commonwealth.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “[The Commonwealth] does not profit from [the liquor stores], they don’t make the liquor, [it’s] just the middleman.”
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    Not true, Mikey: In 2008, the ABC Stores generated revenues of $555.8 million and had operating expenses of $452.4 million. Now, where I come from, revenues minus operating expenses equal PROFITS! The ABC generates $103+ million annually for the commonwealth IN ADDITION to tax revenues.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “IBOB – there will come a point when it will not be worth working anymore due to the excessive taxation and over-regulation.”
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    Just where is that point, Mikey? What is your effective tax rate right now? Mine is about 30% (federal & state) and I don’t complain at all. So tell me, at what tax rate would you refuse to work?
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    What sort of over-regulation are you talking about? Clean water & air? Food & drug safety? Financial markets? Product safety? Occupational safety? Transportation safety? Enviromental protection?

  • Dan says:

    Michael, IBOB answered your point about the ABC stores. They are certainly NOT non-profits. So my point stands about replacing the revenue lost or honestly stating what will be cut.
    .
    You say, “offsore drilling of VA could provide billions to the state”. I understand that the proceeds of offshore leases would accrue to the state. What I was looking for were some “real” numbers. You know, from a credible source. What is the potential production and what will real life oil companies pay for leases in areas with that potential?
    .
    You propose to fire 30% of the state’s employees in the middle of a recession? That should be interesting. How did you arrive at the 30% figure? What specific cuts would you want McDonnell to make? It’s cheap and easy to talk about making major cuts until you have to actually say what those cuts would be. Do you want to cut the state police? VDOT? What?

  • FedUp says:

    IBOB said – “Drill for oil off VA?!?! ROTFLMAO!!! There is a 0% chance that the Democarts in Richmond will go for it. That GOP fantasy is DOA, Mikey; its just not going to happen.”
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    So, IBOB, why wouldn’t the Dems in Richmond go for it? Offshore drilling technology has come a long way since the disasters of the 60s and 70s. There is almost 0% chance of an oil spill anymore, but I guess that won’t stop the envrionmental wackos in your party from trying to block it.

  • AFF says:

    Fedup- there’s a well dumping oil of the coast of Australia as we speak. It’s been gushing into the ocean for more than a month now. A brand spanking new drill platform. You know- one of those modern ones guaranteed not to spill a drop. You can see the oil slick from space now, and major fisheries are threatened.
    .
    Drilling for oil off Virginia’s coast is a pipe dream= never gonna happen. Especially since Virginia isn’t a state which receives oil royalties, unlike the states on the Gulf.
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    No oil royalties without changing Federal Law+ the risk to Virginia’s tourism dollars= never gonna happen.
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    Future oil revenue is perhaps the most laughable aspect of Bobby Mac’s transportation “plan”

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “Offshore drilling technology has come a long way since the disasters of the 60s and 70s. There is almost 0% chance of an oil spill anymore…”
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    The U.S. Minerals Management Service estimates that a proposed lease area under Virginia’s offshore waters may contain 130 million barrels of oil and 1.14 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The U.S. currently uses about 20 million barrels of oil and 60 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.
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    Fed, you would risk our pristine beaches and coastal eco-system for 6.5 days worth of oil & 19 days worth on gas?
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    I would not: It’s just not worth it.

  • Ryan says:

    I am sooo looking frwd to seeing Virginia Oil on the market…

  • Dan says:

    FedUp, I love me some technology, but I’m afraid I can’t share your blind faith in it. Improvements in technology aside, potential oil spills are a very real risk that must be weighed in any serious discussion of off shore drilling. That risk comes with a price. It will play hell with folks who make their living on the water. Lost tourism dollars and the taxes from the tourism industry, cleanup costs, etc. You can’t blithely refuse to consider the real risks if you seriously propose that this is the way we should pay for our transportation needs (leaving aside the issue of whether it would actually raise enough money).
    .
    Also, if you casually dismiss all those who have genuine concerns about drilling off the Virginia coast as “environmental wackos”, well…. maybe you shouldn’t apply that term to others. If I owned a hotel or a restaurant in Virginia Beach I might not be as fired up to drill off that coast as you are. Plenty of serious folks have major reservations about the advisability of this.
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    I suspect it is only a campaign gimmick. Like the car tax thing was for Gilmore. Bob’s gotta put something on his website about how he plans to come up with the billions for his campaign promises.
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    It won’t hurt him with the base. They don’t require serious policy. “Drill here! Drill now!” is as thoughtful an energy policy as they need.

  • Brian S says:

    IBOB, are you honestly saying that we shouldn’t go after the offshore oil becaue it’s only enough to fuel the entire US need for oil for 6 days? I suppose we shouldn’t bother growing food in the Shenandoah valley because we couldn’t feed the entire country for even half a day.
    .
    The fact is, with ultra deep sea drilling, we can access off shore deposits that are far enough out they would have little to no impact on the in-shore environment. There’s no reason not to drill if we can create a new income stream by doing so.
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    It’s not a gimmick. Ask the Gulf states if it’s a gimmick.

  • FedUp says:

    AFF – That’s the first spill in australia in 25 years after 1,500 successful wells were drilled. I agree with you, IBOB and the environmentalists that the risk is too great. Let’s shut down every rig in the world.
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    IBOB – Nobody can predict how much recoverable oil and gas may be present in a given area until they start drilling exploratory wells. The MMS figure is little more than a SWAG. I would think that the US probably would do a better job of containing a spill than most other countries. I doubt a drop of oil would ever reach Virginia shores. Drill, baby, drill!

  • Michael says:

    Dan- if I lived in VA Beach I would love the idea of off-shore drilling – more jobs and people spending money in my district. You seem to view things from a government perspective and not a business perspective. My 30% figure was out of thin air, we may need to cut 50% of the gov. employees. In business when you aren’t making money you cut back, the government needs to apply the same logic. Bailouts of car companies, local/state governments needs to end. Take a good look at the states that have been run into the ground by BIG government (all D states). If this is where you want VA to go, that is your perrogative, I don’t. IBOB also comes from a gov. mind-set. The sale of ABC stores will raise rvenue — most people who sell their business do so at a profit, not a loss. BTW – this is OUR money, not the politicians.

  • kelley in virginia says:

    IBOB: if you are happy with your 30% tax bracket, then i am happy for you. however, i suspect that your fed. tax rate will go up because this country is insolvent yet still wants to spend more money. don’t argue about how we got into this situation–that is not the issue of this comment.*****so when you say that you don’t mind paying your taxes, you might want to consider that you may have to pay a bigger chunk in the future, even if your paycheck doesn’t grow.

  • Dan says:

    Are the potential oil reserves enough to generate serious income that outweighs the risk? Are there credible sources on this? What are the potential reserves and what income will the state likely receive?
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    These are the questions that need to be asked. You guys seem very certain that McDonnell has this thing won, so now it is time to get serious about governing. And that takes more than fluff on your website about transportation and how you are going to pay for it.
    .
    There is not the same amount of oil off the Virginia coast as there is in the Gulf so if you are planning on Texas or Louisiana numbers then you are playing with the people of Virginia. In that case we are back to square one. How does McDonnell pay for all that he has promised during the campaign?
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    If we assume (and it’s a huge assumption) that oil leases would generate sufficient income to pay for Bob’s grab bag of goodies and that we can agree that it outweighs the risk, when would that revenue be available? Drilling off the coast is going to be a hugely contentious issue. It isn’t going to be an easy sell. I bet those dollars wouldn’t show up until after McDonnell was out of office.
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    So we are back to the original question. He has promised a whale of a lot. How is he REALLY going to pay for it?

  • kelley in virginia says:

    didn’t someone on this blog propose that I sell my land for a coal-fired electric plant? (to put my money where my mouth is, so to speak). that would mean jobs. same with Oil. jobs. more tax revenue. and more roads in NoVa. more people employed so therefore fewer on govt. subsidy. what i’m getting at here is doesn’t this sound preferable to raising taxes?

  • Cato the Elder says:

    Production from deep water drilling takes between 5-10 years before a single drop of oil is produced, and that’s being optimistic. Just sayin’.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    Brian: I’m saying that for the reward of a week’s worth of oil, the risk of drilling off Virginia Beach is too great.
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    “I agree with you, IBOB and the environmentalists that the risk is too great. Let’s shut down every rig in the world.” That’s the spirit, Fed!
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    Tsk, tsk, tsk…Haven’t you heard, Fed! Modern technology has rendered the practice of drilling exploratory wells obsolete.
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    “My 30% figure was out of thin air, we may need to cut 50% of the gov. employees.” And you think the private sector will immediately be able to absorb all of those workers? What about government services, Mikey? Will you have the DMV open just one day per week? Cut the school week to Tuesday – Thursday? Eliminate very other fire & rescue company? Close the libraries, parks & rec. centers? What’s waste & what’s not?
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    “In business when you aren’t making money you cut back, the government needs to apply the same logic.” A government isn’t a business, Mikey. I does not exist to generate a profit, but rather to serve its constituents. I am SO glad you do not run the government.
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    “The sale of ABC stores will raise revenue.” Yes, Mikey, in the short-term it will. What about the long-term? Many businesses sell operating units as stop-gap measures, only to regret the decision down the road. The ABC stores are an asset, a MONEY-MAKING GOVERNEMNTAL ENTERPRISE. Why would you want to sell them?
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    “IBOB: i suspect that your fed. tax rate will go up because this country is insolvent yet still wants to spend more money.” As a result of the Stimulus Plan, my taxes DECREASED, KiV.

  • Dan says:

    Kelley, I suppose if you assume that there are only benefits and no downside to drilling off our coast, then yes. But what if there IS an oil spill and our beaches look like Prince William Sound after the Exxon Valdez ran aground? That will cost us plenty.
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    There are risks and benefits to be weighed. Only the Palinistas think this is a slam dunk. Serious people of all political persuasions know this is highly controversial and that we are a long, long way from a consensus on offshore drilling. While we are hammering this out will our transportation issues just get kicked down the road for the governor we elect in 2013?
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    If McDonnell’s plan is to use money from offshore leases to pay for transportation then he has no plan at all. If you think he has this election won it might be a good time to start asking him how he is really going to pay for all he has promised us.
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    Time to govern.

  • G. Stone says:

    Someone, anyone please hand IBOB a knife.

  • Loudoun Lady says:

    IBOB’s tourtured logic is enough to drive anyone mad eventually, no one can sustain that much nitwittery in their brain without it boiling over into madness.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “Someone, anyone please hand IBOB a knife.”
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    Thanks, Stone, but I have my own.
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    “IBOB’s tourtured logic is enough to drive anyone mad eventually, no one can sustain that much nitwittery in their brain without it boiling over into madness.”
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    Driving you mad, LL? I’m flattered…

  • See, there’s that reading comprehension problem again, bloodclot.
    He said that YOUR brain boiled over into madness, due in large part to the nitwittery in that brain.
    The exact words were “drive anyone mad eventually” which is not specific in it’s descriptive capacity, in that it lacks further substatial information points that could assist in a concrete analysis.
    Of course, for those who “think” they know something, and more oft than not, blatantly ignore bold facts to the contrary – They prefer instead to use their imaginary knowledge and reasoning skills. It’s why we’ve been able to propound facets of this race that they cannot address to this day.

    Brush up on your reading comprehension skills, bloodclot. You read what you want to see, and it puts you at an even larger disadvantage than had you read correctly and addressed the actual words.

  • I do know that I’m releived that we’ll actually have a Governor who will stand with others in defense of the Tenth Amendment to stop this Federal overreach.
    This could become our very own Bloody Sunday.

    http://thebulletproofmonk.blogspot.com/2009/10/hr-45-precursor-to-future-of-gun.html

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “See, there’s that reading comprehension problem again, bloodclot. He said…”
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    I am confident, Skunk, that a poster named Loudoun Lady is NOT A “HE”. So much for YOUR reading comprehension…
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    That’s all you’ve got, huh Skunk, rehashing the post of another? You are truly pathetic.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “I do know that I’m relieved that we’ll actually have a Governor who will stand with others in defense of the Tenth Amendment to stop this Federal overreach.”
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    And just how will ol’ Bobby Mac impact policies in Washington, Spunk? You mean in the same the way Pawlenty, Sanford, and Jindal have?

  • Loudoun Lady says:

    10th Amendment:

    “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

    Bob won’t impact Washington Policies so much as he will protect Virginia from Washington’s overreach. It’s his responsibility as our Governor.

    IBOB, you just don’t get it.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    “[Bobby Mac] will protect Virginia from Washington’s overreach.”
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    Do you mean that in the way that Pawlenty, Sanford and Jindah “protected” Minnesota, South Carolina, and Louisiana? By refusing to participate in federal government programs to the detriment of the Commonwealth? Oh, I “get it”, LL; but, I certainly don’t agree with it.

  • Loudoun Lady says:

    “To the detriment” is where we disagree and it is why you will never get it, IBOB.

    BTW, Jindal has Lousiana’s economy moving again, pretty impressive what he has done.

  • Bloodclot is stuck on stupid. The Federal Government will attempt to overreach, as they have on a number of issues, and in that effort, will attempt to violate the sovereignty of the States’ Governments.
    Governor Rick Perry fired the first shot, and the movement has steadily been picking up steam.

    http://www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2009/02/09/state-sovereignty-movement-quietly-growing/

    Waiting till Congress is firmly back in Republican hands in 2011, this issue of keeping the US Constitution from eroding interpretation is in a holding pattern for now.

  • I Bleed Obama Blue says:

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    A Handful of Spunk –
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    From your “movement’s” website: “Almost half of the state legislatures are considering or have representatives preparing to introduce resolutions which reassert the principles of the 9th and 10th Amendments to the Constitution and the idea that federal power is strictly limited to specific areas detailed in the Constitution and that all other governmental authority rests with the states.”
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    Well that’s just swell, Spunk. Too bad for you that it’s a compete waste of time & effort. Regarding the 10th Amendment, in United States v. Darby, 312 U.S. 100, 124 (1941), SCOTUS said:
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    “The amendment states but a truism [a claim that is so obvious or self-evident as to be hardly worth mentioning, except as a reminder or as a rhetorical or literary device] that all is retained which has not been surrendered. There is nothing in the history of its adoption to suggest that it was more than declaratory of the relationship between the national and state governments as it had been established by the Constitution before the amendment or that its purpose was other than to allay fears that the new national government might seek to exercise powers not granted, and that the states might not be able to exercise fully their reserved powers…..”
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    Because you’re an idiot, I’ll explain to you what the forgoing means: The SCOTUS does not believe that the 10th Amendment has any meaning. Therefore, your masterbatory Republican Congress fantasy is useless.

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